Rich Hill came through with another outstanding start.
Alfonso Soriano delivered two hits, extended his hitting streak to ten games and has now hit safely in 17 of 18 games this season.
We didn't lose to Zach Duke.
We didn't lose any ground to the Cardinals.
We didn't lose another home game.
But we lost.
To the Pirates.
Yecchhh.
I didn't see tonight's Cubs game owing to a family event, where it was all I could manage to receive intelligence on the Bulls/Heat playoff game.
A man can only be asked to do so much.
Regardless, I just caught the wrap-up and box score of the 5-3 win in St. Louis, and I hope those of you who actually experienced the victory won't mind if I piggyback on your glee.
The Cubs have now won two games in a row for the first time in what seems like a very long while--maybe since back in the Riggelman administration.
With his third win of the season and second in a week over the NL Central's Evil Empire, Jason Marquis is edging closer to the point where he and his pitching coach might be owed some sort of an apology from those of us who were convinced Marquis stunk and Larry Rothschild couldn't possibly fix what Dave Duncan was unable to.
Like I said, we're getting closer...but maybe not there yet. Throwing 30 2/3 innings while striking out 14 and walking 13--as Marquis has done so far in '07--corresponds with no known recipe for pitching success.
But it'll do for now.
(AP Photo/Kyle Ericson from espn.com)
I toyed with the idea of not even acknowledging the Mark Prior story in this space, mostly because it's being covered so much in so many places.
Then Will Carroll addressed it not once, but twice, over at Baseball Prospectus, and Dr. Joe Hecht ("Cubster") of The Cub Reporter offered a marvelous analysis of Carroll's analysis, and then Carroll blasted Hecht in TCR's Comments section, after which he sort of apologized to Hecht in TCR's Comments section.
Then Thursday night, Carroll went on WGN Radio's Sports Central with David Kaplan and repeated what he had written for Baseball Prospectus in the first place, that Prior's injury absolutely, positively had to be the result of overuse and couldn't possibly have had anything to do with that violent collision between Prior and Marcus Giles in 2003 and any suggestion to the contrary, even if it was coming from a practicing physician (which Dr. Hecht is and Carroll is not), is "absolute bunk."
What a gas!
Anyway, I wanted to briefly cite two other takes on the Prior situation. The first, also originating at BP, comes from Kevin Goldstein, who does a bang-up job covering the Minor Leagues and budding prospects. Goldstein writes that the discovery of significant structural damage in Prior's shoulder should humble all of the Chicago sports radio and print outlets which, for two years, have been implying that Prior was simply "a wuss." He goes on:
Mark Prior has been trying to pitch for what looks like two-plus years with the kind of damage in his shoulder that would have you or I thinking about worker’s compensation even though our jobs probably require little more than sitting in from of a computer much of the day. You own him an apology, and if he comes back in the way Dr. Andrews believes he can, many Cubs fans don’t deserve to reap the benefits.
Last, I'll point you to this piece by the Tribune's Paul Sullivan, who leaves no doubt about his feelings regarding the entire, anatomically and emotionally complicated story.
(Prior) might never pitch again for the Cubs, and that's a shame. But if that's the case, few close observers will shed many tears. His churlish attitude toward the media, his obvious disdain for Cubs management and his often condescending demeanor made it hard to sympathize with him.
At long last, the Cubs tuned up the Milwaukees, winning the finalé of their three-game series Wednesday afternoon, 9-3. The top three men in the Chicago order--Ryan Theriot, Cliff Floyd, and Derek Lee--went a combined 10-for-15 with 5 runs scored and 6 RBI. On the mound, Ted Lilly gave up one earned run and no walks in seven innings. His ERA is now a sterling 2.18.
Speaking of ERA's...
Brewers reliever Elmer Dessens pitched through the decisive inning, the 5-run Cubs' fourth, which featured a walk, a strikeout, an error, a single, a two-run single, another strikeout, and a two-run double. But Dessens' ERA was better after his one-inning outing than when he entered the game. That's because shortstop J.J. Hardy's error on a ground ball hit by Jacque Jones caused all of the runs to be unearned.
There might not be such a thing as the perfect baseball statistic, but Wednesday's events sure made the friendly, ol' Earned Run Average look pretty dopey.
Unlike the site you're reading, Fangraphs does not have an inherently negative view of the world. It's just that when your favorite team loses (and loses and loses), it offers an especially graphic view of the carnage.
This article in the Kansas City Star explains the Fangraphs methodology, based on WE (Win Expectancy) and WPA (Win Probability Added):
An average team enters each game with a WE of 50 percent. As the game progresses, this figure moves up and down, depending on inning, score, outs and men on base.Let’s use the April 8 game between the Royals and Tigers as an example. The Royals led 2-0 entering the ninth inning, which means, according to WE, that they had a 91.8 percent chance of winning the game.
By the time Detroit’s Ivan Rodriguez stepped to the plate against David Riske with two men on and nobody out, the Royals’ WE had dropped to 71.9 percent. After I-Rod’s bomb gave the Tigers a 3-2 lead, Kansas City’s WE was 17.4 percent.
WPA doles out credits and debits for every plate appearance in a game according to changes in WE. In our example, Rodriguez would get credit for .545 WPA, and Riske would get docked the same amount for the go-ahead home run.
So what you have in WPA is a statistic that comes as close to perfect contextualization as anything we’ve seen to date.
By Fangraph's WPA calculations, Tuesday night's dogs for the Cubs were, in order, Rich Hill, Jacque Jones, Cesar Izturis and Aramis Ramirez. By my calculations, which don't involve any actual calculating, it's hard to blame Hill for his work on the mound, though his bunting into a double play was nasty.
For the season, Derrek Lee, Ramirez, Mark DeRosa and Michael Barrett have made the most positive contributions at the plate. Ronny Cedeno, Cliff Floyd, Jones and Matt Murton have been the dregs.
You could tell much of this from watching. But Fangraphs does a remarkable job of charting the disaster.
While I consider just how despondent I should be after Monday night's debacle, I share this report from AHNY's West Coast correspondent, California Phil:
Business took me to SF this week, so a few thoughts about AT&T Park seem on topic. Beautiful park with scenic views of the bay from many directions. I'm starting to get a little worried that the current crop of parks, while nicer, are starting to be as cookie cutter as the early 70s parks. Scoreboards the same, dimensions similar, same feel as Camden Yards and even the DBacks park (whatever it's called today - Chase Field I believe) in many ways.
A few other random notes -- I detest Bonds as much as the next thinking fan, but have to admit it was chilling and exciting when he batted. And the flurry of activity in the park came to a standstill when he batted.
I now must hold some sort of record as Bonds homered after I left (heck I was cold, I saw him bat 3 times, and what self-respecting Cubs fan really cares about SF vs STL). What's amazing is that I was also at Wrigley for an Aaron HR (somewhere around 705 or so) when he was chasing Ruth and left early in that one as my paper route called. I'd venture to say that 96% of the other games I've attended, I've gone the distance. Go figure.
Does anybody remember why the first baseman is not included in the throw around the horn after a K?
One other tidbit, the SF 3rd base coach was facing the OF with a runner on 2nd and took only a quick glance at the batter - presumably to ensure he didn't get whacked on the head by a sharp drive -- to better view the OF for a play at the plate I'd imagine. Don't remember seeing that before and now wonder if it's common. Pretty anti-Kimmish in its approach.
Going tomorrow to see the Lancaster (Class A) JetHawks. Lots of baseball - I also saw LA/SD last week - but miss the Cubs. Hope they're playing better when they come to LA.
Item #1: In their latest “Hit List” power rating of the 30 Major League teams, which considers things like run differential and strength of opposition, Baseball Prospectus ranked the Cubs 12th.
Item #2: If the Cubs lose tonight’s series opener to the Brewers, Milwaukee’s magic number over the boys will be reduced to 139.
A business function brought me to Dayton, Ohio on Friday, and Friday evening, my clients and I were guests of the Class A Midwest League Dayton Dragons, who were playing Quad Cities.
The Dragons, I learned, are a phenomenon. Their beautiful, little park sits in the middle of downtown Dayton and pedestrians can easily see the field through a block-long wrought iron fence that runs behind the first base/rightfield grandstand. The stadium seats 8,000 or so, and at every Dragons game since the franchise's first, on April 27, 2000, every one of those seats has been sold. That's more than 500 sellouts in a row.
Like I said--a phenomenon.
Before the game, several of us were introduced to the Dragons pitching coach, former Pirate/Athletic/Red/Cardinal/Tiger/Cardinal/Athletic/Phillie/Blue Jay/Pirate, Doug Bair, who, once upon a time, was a pretty good relief pitcher. Between 1976 and 1990, he appeared in 584 games, earning 81 saves and a lifetime 3.61 ERA.
We were talking about his two World Series appearances, in '82 with the Cardinals and '84 with the Tigers, which caused me to say I was a lifelong Cubs fan who had hoped and expected that the Cubs and Tigers would meet in that '84 Series. He said, after they had finished off the Royals in the ALCS, the Tigers were also expecting to be playing the Cubs, until, well...we all know why that never happened.
Anyway, the Dragons won their game against Quad Cities Friday night, 9-5. The fans seemed to have a grand time, and the atmosphere in the park was so light and lively--perfect weather didn't hurt--that I imagined these fans always enjoy themselves, win or lose.
I bet their spirits could even withstand an excruciating loss to a hated rival.
Brutal night. Positively brutal.
First the Bulls lose to New Jersey, effectively playing their way out of home court advantage in the first round of the NBA playoffs and playing their way into a first round match-up with Miami.
Then Carlos Zambrano and Scott Eyre do impersonations of Wade Miller and Will Ohman and the Cubs blow yet another winnable game.
And finally, of course, there was this.
Returning to the Cubs:
Great to see them come back from the early deficit. Troubling that Zambrano continues to pitch like hell. Tonight he gave up eight hits, five earned runs, five walks and an HBP in six innings. Eyre couldn't make it through the 7th inning, allowing three runs and coughing up a hard-earned 6-5 lead.
Lee and Ramirez look outstanding at the plate. (Hated to see Ramirez swing at a 3-0 pitch and hit into a double play in the first inning when Atlanta starter Kyle Davies appeared to be struggling.) Felix Pie looks just like a centerfielder, and he collected his first career triple and a walk tonight as well.
I am now fully committed to thinking of Carlos Zambrano as our fourth or fifth starter, which means our #1, Rich Hill, is going tomorrow against the eminently beatable Mark Redman.
One last item--the Braves' Peter Moylan (pictured above) is Paul Reuschel's doppelganger. The resemblance starts with the industrial weight eyeglasses and tonight, continued with Moylan's first pitch, which sailed about three feet wide of the catcher's outstretched mitt.
Just like Paulie used to chuck 'em.
Freaky.
The Dodgers' Jason Schmidt has caught whatever Mark Prior and Kerry Wood have and is headed for the Disabled List.
Speaking of Prior and Wood, Rich Lederer at The Baseball Analysts offers this trip down Misery Lane in an attempt to explain why the careers of the two Cubs wonderboys went amiss.
I won't provide the answer here--you should read the piece--but I will say it rhymes with Crusty Faker.
From today's Tribune:
Cubs call up Pie; Soriano feeling 'much better'
I'm sorry to see Fonsie hurt and wouldn't be surprised if Pie struggles mightily against Major League pitching. But IF Soriano returns healthy in a few days and IF Pie can contribute with his bat, the Cubs could be a much stronger, more well put-together team. Soriano, for example, could be moved to one of the corners and maybe Jacque Jones could be moved to some other team.
Worst case scenario: Pie keeps Soriano's position warm for a few days, returns to Iowa, and we go from there. The Cubs starting pitching has been quite good thus far and looks to be the strongest in the division, which suggests to me the Cubs should at least remain in the thick of the division race for the rest of the season.
Things that couldn’t possibly be on the minds of the 4-7 Cubs, so don’t even ask about them:
Alfonso Soriano worrying about justifying his contract or living up to his lead-off responsibilities.
Carlos Zambrano thinking about the big contact he almost, but didn’t quite, sign, or whether, given the Cubs’ ownership situation, he’ll have another chance to sign it any time soon.
Matt Murton wondering if all he’ll ever be for the Cubs is someone’s platoon mate.
Jacque Jones, Derrek Lee and Cliff Floyd envisioning the additional burden on them if Aramis Ramirez’s tendonitis is a season-long issue.
Scott Eyre flashing back to 1998, when he was a marginal big league pitcher lucky to have a job, instead of one of the game’s vaunted LOOGYs.
Lou Piniella recalling that heartbreaking losses by well-heeled teams in the biggest markets are just as painful as heartbreaking losses by low-budget teams in Tampa/St. Pete.
Just came in from the backyard, so I can report with confidence:
It's warm.
I'm expecting the Cubs to put up 20 runs today.
Hard to identify the most disheartening aspect of today's loss:
Blowing a 5-run lead?
Blowing a 5-run lead against the Cincinnati Reds?!
Blowing a 5-run lead against the Reds with our "ace" on the mound?
Seeing Alfonso Soriano misplay Chad Moeller's pop fly into a single?
Seeing Soriano getting picked off of first base?
Seeing Aramis Ramirez miss the game when he's been hitting so well and wondering if there is more to his sitting out than the Cubs are suggesting? (Where would I get that idea?)
Watching Will Ohman face two hitters, walk two hitters, and walk in two runs?
Having rag-armed former Cub, David Weathers, lock down the victory?
On the positive side, we now have a manager who seems as disgusted with what often goes on at Wrigley Field as we fans are.
Hoping for better things Saturday (Rich Hill v. Bronson Arroyo ) and Sunday (Lilly v. Kyle Lohse).
On this afternoon's Mike Murphy Show on WSCR, Steve Stone said he'd rather see Alfonso Soriano lead off the first inning with a walk than with a home run.
Stone's thinking:
Walking Soriano forces the starter to pitch from the stretch--after he has presumably been throwing solely from the windup while loosening in the bullpen--and increases the likelihood of a big inning more than if he just gives up the solo homer and goes back to the windup for the #2 hitter. Also, Stone reasons, the pitcher wouldn't have to deal with the distraction of the speedy Soriano on first.
I know either Bill James or Baseball Prospectus has debunked the notion that having a runner on first significantly impacts a pitcher's ability to retire subsequent hitters, but I've never heard the rest of Stone's argument phrased quite that way.
Am I the only person who thinks his logic is daft?
It's April in Chicago, and spring has sprung. Today it sprung a snowstorm, complete with plenty of wet, slushy snow and winds that turned umbrellas upside down and inside out. Let's play two!
Today's aborted Cubs/Astros game will be played in ninety-two days, which should give Adam "The Splendid Splinter" Everett and Chris Sampson plenty of time to rest so they'll be ready to savage our boys on their home turf all over again in July.
The Reds come to town Friday. I am sure they'll want to get to the park early so they can seek out Carlos Zambrano and thank him for his kind words about the Red Legs' offense.
Finally, a few words to commemorate Tuesday night's thoroughly enjoyable White Sox/A's game. The contest featured a ninth-inning, game-tying single by ex-Cub Todd Walker, a comically inept throw by White Sox leftfielder Scott Podsednik on the aforementioned play, and, lastly, a game-winning hit by Mark Ellis, which should have been caught by Podsednik but instead, caromed off his head.
Yummy.
Two days after beginning to shake the Chris Capuano Curse, the Cubs enabled Chris Sampson's latest impersonation of Cy Young.
The 28-year-old Sampson has now started four Major League games, two of them--both victories--against the Cubs. In 12 innings pitched against the Men In Blue, he's allowed six hits and 0 runs. His lifetime ERA is now 1.71; minus the work against the Cubs, it's 2.40 (still pretty sparkling).
Yeah, the season is only eight games old, but it's galling to lose the first two games to the Astros, especially after the way Houston struggled against the Cardinals...after the Cardinals looked like a Double-A team against the mighty Mets.
I think this is the way it's going to be in the NL Central this year: a bunch of roughly even teams taking turns pummeling each other, with everyone in the crowd--except the Pirates--alternately sitting atop the dung heap or falling back into the pack. At the end of it all, a single extended winning streak might be all that separates the division champ from the rest of the field.
Then there's the injury factor, and on this front, the Cardinals could be in line to grab the first headline.
On Tuesday, Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus reported that St. Louis ace Chris Carpenter "appears to have bone spurs in his pitching elbow, a recurrence that was last dealt with at the end of the 1999 season."
Carroll continues:
The Cardinals announced the injury as "arthritis and impingement," but as expected, sources tell me that the olecranon impingement is caused by bone chips. Joe Strauss of the Post-Dispatch gets similar information, and adds in that Carpenter had a lubricant (such as Supartz) injected into his elbow...I can't think of another pitcher who's had this type of treatment. Carpenter missed four weeks with elbow problems in June 1999 before shutting it down in September for surgery, giving us some indication on how this might go. I'd expect that Carpenter will be given a couple weeks to see if the lubricant, anti-inflammatories, and rest will help, but that surgery is the next option.
This could be huge, because, as we all know too well, Carpenter is good. Very good.
On the other hand, he's no Chris Sampson.
Dropping your home opener on a long ball by a banjo hitter like Adam Everett. I can't think of a more demoralizing way to lose a baseball game.
Wait a minute. I can think of one.
There was a time when, if Greg Maddux was pitching on Friday night, you wouldn't be surprised to wake up on Saturday morning and see a line like this in the box scores:
7 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 6 K, 78 Pitches
Well, Maddux did pitch Friday night, in his San Diego debut, and there will be a line like the one above in Saturday's box scores. However, it will belong to the Cubs' Rich Hill, who delivered the team's third consecutive outstanding start in a 9-3 victory over the Brewers. Cub starters have now yielded just three earned runs in 20 innings, good for a women's-fastpitch-softball-like 1.35 ERA.
Maybe Milwaukee starter David Bush was tipping off his pitches or maybe the Cub hitters were energized by all the Chicago partisans who were in attendance, but it looked like every Cub was swinging from his heels, an approach that generally produces lots of strikeouts and, on a good night, lots of long hits.
Tonight, it produced both: 10 K's by Brewer pitchers, seven extra-base hits by the Cubs.
Zambrano pitches tomorrow afternoon against Ben Sheets, then Wade Miller makes his first start of 2007 on Sunday against Cub nemesis, Chris Capuano.
I know it’s only 1.85% of the season, but I still find it frustrating to go into Cincinnati for three games and come away with one win.
On the upside, Ted Lilly and Jason Marquis were superb, Aramis Ramirez seems to have forgotten that he doesn’t like hitting in cold weather, and while the Cubs clearly under-performed in the Queen City, the results could have been worse. Much worse.
On to Milwaukee, where there are sure to be so many Cub fans in attendance that some of the newer Cubs may have a hard time perceiving this as a road series.
It will be like Home Opener Lite.
I'm thinking that Thursday's Chicago newspapers will make quite a lot of the way the Cub manager, not the pitching coach, marched out to the mound in bottom of the 9th inning, delivered an ear-blistering address to Ryan Dempster and returned to the dugout all in the space of about 20 seconds, after which Dempster closed out the inning and secured the win.
I hope they make a big deal of it. It was fabulous.
Nice to have a real manager.
The open date in the schedule afforded me plenty of time to fret about our Cubs--our winless, tied-for-last-place, scoring-just-one-run-for-every-nine-innings, being-outscored-by-a-whopping-four-runs-per-game Cubs.
(Aside: in light of Monday's ringing defeat, I am downgrading my '07 prediction. New pick--Cubs, 43-119; 51 games behind the Brewers.)
I also enjoyed the news and speculation in the Chicago media about who will next own the Pennantless Wonders. Tuesday's Tribune listed Andy McKenna among those locals with a possible interest in buying the team.
McKenna, you may remember, was Chairman of the Cubs right after Tribune Company purchased the club. These days he is the Non-Executive Chairman of McDonald's and Chairman of the Schwartz Paper Company. Impressive, right? Actually, it's just the beginning. The rest of McKenna's resumé, courtesy of the McDonald's Web site:He is currently a Director of Aon Corporation, Chicago Bears Football Club, Inc., Click Commerce, and Skyline Corporation. He acted as Chairman of the Chicago White Sox from 1975 - 1981. He also served as Chairman of the Chicago Cubs from 1981 - 1984. He served as the Chairman of the Board of Trustees of the University of Notre Dame from 1992 - 2000 and was Vice Chairman for six years prior to that. He continues to serve as a trustee for the University of Notre Dame.
McKenna has served on many civic, community and philanthropic boards. He was previously Chairman of the Board of Trustees of the Museum of Science and Industry and continues to serve as a trustee. He has also served as Chairman of the Economic Club of Chicago. He is a director of The American Ireland Fund, Children's Memorial Hospital of Chicago, Lyric Opera and United Way of Metropolitan Chicago, among many others. He currently serves as the Chairman of the Civic Committee of The Commercial Club of Chicago and was previously Chairman of The Commercial Club of Chicago. In addition, he is the Founding Chairman of Chicago Metropolis 2020. His former directorships include Bank One (1991-1999), Dean Foods (1982-2000) and Tribune Company (1982-2002). In addition, he served as the Chairman of the 1997 United Way/Crusade of Mercy Campaign for Chicagoland area.
Mark Cuban, by contrast, once volunteered to work in a Dairy Queen.
I know it's early in the sale process. In fact, the process hasn't even officially begun. But it's very easy for me to picture a fellow like McKenna, as part of a syndicate with similarly distinguished, gray-haired Chicago businessmen, slipping right into the owner's chair. He has baseball in his background and has been associated with enough good causes to earn a dozen places in Heaven.
Naturally, I prefer Mark Cuban.
Which brings me to the reason for today's headline--this quote attributed to White Sox Chairman, Chicago Bulls Chairman, and #3 Enemy of the Blog, Jerry Reinsdorf, after he was asked for his feelings about Cuban possibly joining the fraternity of Major League Baseball owners:
“It is a matter of public record that when Cuban was approved to buy the Dallas Mavericks, the vote was 29-1.”
Good: The 2007 season is here.
Bad: On Monday, it looked a lot like most of 2006.
Good: The Cub bullpen held the Reds scoreless over the last three innings.
Bad: The Reds scored enough runs to win in the first.
Good: John McDonough says Trib’s plan to sell won’t affect the operation of the team this year.
Bad: Apparently McDonough was talking about everything except agreeing on Carlos Zambrano's new contract.
Good: The new Cub, Alfonso Soriano, got his first hit of the season.
Bad: A returning Cub, Matt Murton, got his first three strikeouts of the season.
Good: Derrek Lee was back in the Cub lineup, hitting like the old Derrek Lee.
Bad: Adam Dunn was in the Reds lineup, torching Cub pitching like the old Adam Dunn.
Good: Lou Piniella's post-game press conference featured a typically frank, honest appraisal of his team’s performance.
Bad: Frankly speaking, there was almost nothing positive to say.
Good: The White Sox were humiliated by the Indians.
Bad: The umps were required to stop the game after 9 innings.
Good: The Cubs should have a new owner by the end of the calendar year, possibly an individual, not a corporation, with a personal, emotional stake in the fortunes of his team.
Bad: “Mr. FitzSimons, I have Mr. Wirtz holding on line 2.”
I guess I'll no longer have to go fishing through pubs like Crain's Chicago Business for the latest on the Cubs ownership situation.
As I write this, Billy Wagner is applying the Verne Gagne sleeper hold to the Cardinals, thereby securing a 6-1 Mets victory in the opener of the 2007 season. The Cubs' magic number over the Cards will be down to 162.
I used to like it when the MLB opener always took place in Cincinnati. It's not that I have any particular fondness for Cincinnati--I think of it as a less glamorous Milwaukee--it's just that I enjoyed the quaint tradition. Baseball doesn't have enough of those anymore.
The Cubs have won their last four openers, including two at Cincinnati, by an average score of 14-5. The Carlos Zambrano/Aaron Harang match-up on Monday is a repeat of last year's opener, when the Cubs blitzed the Reds with five first-inning runs en route to a 16-7 victory.
Lou Piniella's first-ever Cub lineup card:
Soriano (instead of '06 Opening Day starter, Juan Pierre), cf
Murton, lf
Lee, 1b
Aramis Ramirez, 3b
Jones, rf
Barrett, c
DeRosa (instead of Todd Walker), 2b
Izturis (instead of Ronny Cedeno), ss
Zambrano, p
A potentially wicked lineup, 1 through 6, maybe even through the 7th spot if DeRosa imagines he's still hitting in The Ballpark At Arlington this season.
I'm thinking 85-77, three games better than the Cards.
