So the former Cub catcher and former Cub managerial candidate Joe Girardi is now in charge of the Yankees, and the former Yankee manager Joe Torre is talking to the former Cubs front office guy and current Los Angeles GM Ned Colletti about replacing the former Cubs minor league instructor Grady Little as manager of the Dodgers.
What I'm wondering is, which Joe Torre is Colletti thinking about hiring?
Joe Torre's Managerial Record, National League:
894-1,003, .470
1 post-season appearance in 15 seasons
Joe Torre's Managerial Record, American League:
1,173-767, .605
12 post-season appearances (and 4 championships) in 12 seasons
Torre sure became smart the minute he got around a $195 million payroll.
Here is all you need to know about the most interesting aspect of this year's just concluded, nearly drama-free World Series:
It looks like Taco Bell's free-tacos-for-a-stolen base promotion was a grand slam.
According to Advertising Age, the chain spent $5.6 million--chump change for a major national advertiser--on World Series ads promoting their plan to give away tacos at 6,000 Taco Bell locations between 2pm and 5pm on Tuesday (10/30) if a base was stolen during the Series.
Jacoby Ellsbury stole second base in the fourth inning of Game 2, so the giveaway is on.
"It's pretty low-risk," said Ron Paul, president of restaurant consultant Technomic. If each of 6,000 locations gives away three tacos a minute for about three hours, Mr. Paul calculated Taco Bell would give away a maximum of 3 million tacos. He estimated they cost Taco Bell about 20¢, making the maximum total cost about $700,000.
And of course, Taco Bell chose its hours and dates wisely -- the free taco giveaway is comfortably between the lunch and dinner hours. The company said it didn't take out any insurance on the promotion, which indicates it wasn't concerned about financial risk.
And the buzz built by the promotion is only part of the program's upside for Taco Bell. One can safely assume that most of the free taco hounds who pack the restaurants Tuesday will order something to go with their free tacos; at the very least, they're likely to wash down the food with one of those sky high-profit margin soda drinks.
All in all, a pretty smart play by Taco Bell.
Next year, somebody ought to come up with a promotion tied to the possibility that Scott Boras will make a grandstanding ass of himself and try to upstage the most important event on the baseball calendar.
It could be a big draw. But like Taco Bell, they just better plan on having to pay out.
This sounds like a lot of fun:
Beginning November 5th, the Sporting News Web site is going to use its Strat-O-Matic Baseball Online game engine to replay the entire 1986 Major League season. The site will then report on the game results and players' statistics throughout this coming off-season.
Sportingnews.com has selected 26 "members of the baseball community"--writers, bloggers, former Cub and ex-big leaguer Doug Glanville and current big leaguer Curt Schilling among them--to each manage a team through the simulated season. The Cubs are to be managed by Dan Shanoff, who writes for espn.com and blogs here.
In case you're too old to remember or too young to know about the real 1986 Cubs, the team finished 70-90, 37 games behind the NL East-winning Mets, who would go on to defeat the Red Sox in the World Series that will haunt Bill Buckner forever.
The Cubs lost their season opener to the Cards in '86 and never got back to .500 at any point in the season. Manager Jim Frey was fired 55 games into the season, the late John Vukovich filled in for a couple games, and then Gene Michael steered the ship the rest of the way.
In many ways, the 1986 Cubs team represented the last vapors of the thrill ride of 1984. The '86 season was the final one in a Cub uniform for Ron Cey and Dennis Eckersley; the next to last Cub season for Keith Moreland, Bobby Dernier, Gary Matthews, and Leon Durham. Reserve outfielder Jerry Mumphrey, by the way, wasn't half-bad in 1986. Or '87.
In any case, I'm looking forward to following 1986 all over again. You'll find the Cubs team page here. The Cubs will "play" their season opener against the Cardinals--Jamie Moyer matching up with Danny Cox--on Tuesday, November 6th.
One detail I noticed while browsing the site:
The '86 Red Sox, under the stewardship of Schilling, will begin their simulated season on Monday, November 5th, which might be just a few days removed from the end of this year's World Series. I don't imagine Schilling would have had a chance to put much thought into his lineup.
Maybe The Sporting News should enlist a co-manager to help Schilling out, at least in the early going.
I hear Joe Torre isn't doing anything.
Giants Stadium may be able to claim the honor of being final resting place for James R. Hoffa--well, maybe not--but as the Sodfather, Roger Bossard, learned today while beginning to replace Wrigley Field's woeful playing surface, the Friendly Confines have been home for more than three decades to several massive slabs of subterranean concrete.
The slabs, which supported the goalposts used by the Bears when they played at Wrigley, were left behind and covered over with dirt when the Bears moved to Soldier Field following the 1970 season. Now Bossard has been instructed to simply discard them.
Clearly John McDonough's upward migration from the Director of Marketing position has affected the Cubs. In the old days, the front office would have ordered a couple of the grounds crew guys to break out the sledgehammers, pulverize the concrete into crumbly little pieces, and then sold off each of the crumbles for $25.
Those were the days.
The Red Sox just closed out the Rockies in World Series Game Two, 2-1. Matt Holliday had four of the five Colorado hits (all singles), but was picked off first base by Jonathan Papelbon in the top of the 8th inning with Todd Helton, the potential tying run, at the plate.
Maybe the Rockies can still make it a series. In addition to the obvious challenges of playing on the road in front of a large, Red Sox-hating crowd in a stadium most of the Sox have never seen, Boston will also be playing without a DH.
Terry Francona will have to decide what to do with David Ortiz, who could be murderous against Colorado's Game 3 and Game 4 starters, righthanders Josh Fogg and Aaron Cook, but would have to play in the field in order to take his licks.
Should be interesting.
Earlier this evening, while listening to the player introductions before World Series Game One, I decided to play a little game with myself and imagine that it was the Cubs, not Colorado, taking the field against the mighty Red Sox. It was Alfonso Soriano, not Willy Taveras, stepping in against Josh Beckett to start the game; Ted Lilly, not Jeff Francis, facing the fearsome Boston lineup.
(I know Carlos Zambrano probably would have been our Game One starter, but since Lilly is a lefty just like Francis, it made for an easier self-deception. I only have so much imagination.)
Funny thing is, the longer the game went on and the larger the Boston lead grew, the easier it was to imagine the Cubs out there. I actually felt anxiety pangs in the home half of the first when Dustin Pedroia connected for a lead-off homer and then Kevin Youkilis continued the assault, etc., etc., etc.
Damn Cubs. Even when they're not playing, they make me sick to my stomach.
And if this is, indeed, destined to be the World Series when the Red Sox are fully transformed from the underdog darlings of everyone outside New York into the new playground bullies, they're certainly off to a good start.
On Monday, the former Cub catcher Joe Girardi endured an entire day of interviews as he pursued the job in which Lou Piniella has absolutely, positively, unequivocally, no interest whatsoever.
Following the Girardi interviews, Hank Steinbrenner, one of the two Steinbrenner sons newly empowered by father George, stepped before the microphones and in a guttural, inarticulate sort of way heard on ESPN radio Tuesday, pronounced Girardi to be a worthy candidate to become the next Yankees manager. (The consensus favorite for the position still seems to be Don Mattingly, however.)
This article in the Times explains the roles assumed within the Yankee hierarchy by Hank and his younger brother, Hal. If you ask me, it's not a pretty picture.
Closer to home, another father-son succession process has unfolded. The Blackhawks owner Bill Wirtz, who died of cancer about four weeks ago, has been succeeded as the team's chairman by his 55-year-old son, Rocky.
In a little over three weeks on the job, Rocky has "reassigned" the former Hawks coach and longtime team executive Bob Pulford to a position from which he can no longer damage the hockey club and started making plans to telecast Blackhawks home games, a move his late father deemed unthinkable. Most remarkable of all, nine games into the season, the Blackhawks have won more games than they've lost.
It seems like Rocky Wirtz is committed to breathing some life into the franchise whose demise his father oversaw. Even Coach Denis Savard, a longtime Bill Wirtz favorite, would appear to be in a produce-or-get-fired position.
I wonder if Joe Girardi knows anything about hockey.
Jon Weisman at Dodger Thoughts offered a short but marvelous post on Monday, skewering LA's decision to move the former Cub Juan Pierre to leftfield in 2008.
Jon points out that Pierre's adjusted OPS of 75 last season, compiled while he was playing centerfield, would have tied the lowest such figure for a starting leftfielder in the last 106 years.
Says Weisman:
Entrusting Pierre with left field is like entrusting Shelley Levene with the Glengarry leads. Pierre in left is a call for help.Well said, Jon.
If the events that unfolded three Octobers ago didn't convince you, nor the three-game comeback that culminated Sunday night in Boston, I'll state it emphatically:
The Red Sox are no longer the Cubs' kindred spirits, their brothers in heartache, their similarly cursed, American League cousins.
They're the Yankees.
Today cubs.com presented a 1,280-word interview with Cubs GM Jim Hendry as he looks back on the '07 season and looks forward to the team's organizational meetings in Arizona at the end of the month.
I know how busy you must be, with leaves to rake, storm windows to repair before the cold weather hits, etc., etc., so I have chopped the article down to a pithy 98 words.
Here are they are:
- The playoff loss to Arizona will not directly dictate Hendry's off-season roster moves.
- Hendry is not sure whether the Cubs will be more focused on signing free agents or promoting from within the system this winter.
- Cub fans suggest a lot of dumb trades.
- Geo Soto has a good chance to be the Cubs' Opening Day catcher.
- The pending Tribune sale won't hinder Hendry's ability to spend money.
- Hendry thought Lou Piniella's coaching staff did a good job this season.
- The quality of the Cubs' minor league system proved itself in '07.
- The Cubs scouting department is among the game's best.
There it is: all you need to know about what's on Jim Hendry's mind.
Now you can get to work. Those leaves aren't going to rake themselves, ya know?
Lou Piniella said it.
Lou Piniella's agent said it.
Paul Sullivan wrote it.
Today, Carrie Muskat wrote it again:
Lou Piniella is not interested in replacing Joe Torre as manager of the New York Yankees.
The Yanks supposedly have Don Mattingly and former Cub Joe Girardi at the top of their candidates list. I don't care who they hire. I just hope they hire somebody. Soon. So we don't have to read any more denials of the possibility that Lou Piniella will be the guy.
Completely unrelated thought:
I have been watching the Red Sox-Indians game intermittently this evening and my considered opinion--and I mean this in the most positive way imaginable--is that Josh Beckett is a bad ass.
The Cubs could use one of those. Yes, the amped-up, generally crazy, sometimes brilliant guy is entertaining, but the classic, cold-blooded bad ass with the permanent snarl sure comes in handy when your season is on the line and you're playing in front of 45,000 people who hate you.
Like I said, the Cubs could use one of those.
Major League teams and the number of seasons since their last World Series appearance:
Colorado, 0
St. Louis, 1
Detroit, 1
White Sox, 2
Houston, 2
Boston, 3*
Florida, 4
Yankees, 4
Angels, 5
San Francisco, 5
Arizona, 6
Mets, 7
Atlanta, 8
San Diego, 9
Cleveland, 10*
Toronto, 14
Philadelphia, 14
Minnesota, 16
Cincinnati, 17
Oakland, 17
Los Angeles, 19
Kansas City, 22
Baltimore, 24
Milwaukee, 25
Pittsburgh, 28
You-Know-Who, 62
(*Pending results of ALCS)
Four current franchises have never made it to the Series--the Devil Rays (9 seasons in existence), Mariners (30), Expos/Nationals (38), and Senators/Rangers (46)--but in a world populated by the Chicago Cubs and the people who suffer along with them, fans of those four pennantless teams better not even THINK of feeling sorry for themselves.
What he did: Between '05 and '06, he pitched in 115 games for the Cubs, all as a reliever. In 121 2/3 IP, he gave up 124 hits, with 100 K's, 57 BB's. He won 6, lost 7 and had a Cub career ERA of 4.29. He missed all of the '07 season following an off-season auto accident, in which he received head and shoulder injuries.
How we got him: Came to the Cubs from the Tigers along with Bo Flowers and Scott Moore in exchange for Kyle Farnsworth (2/9/05).
How we got rid of him: Claimed on waivers Tuesday by the Orioles, where he will join Moore, Corey Patterson, Paul Bako, Freddy Bynum, and Jon Leicester in Andy MacPhail's Land of Craptastic Ex-Cubs.
Good time: 8/30/06 at Pittsburgh; Novoa pitched to four Pirate hitters and fanned them all, including Freddy Sanchez, Jason Bay, and Jeromy Burnitz in succession.
Bad time: 7/7/05 at Atlanta. Entered the 8th inning of a game the Cubs were leading 4-3 and proceeded to give up three hits and three earned runs without recording an out. Andruw Jones's two-run homer was the killer. Cubs would go on to lose the game, 9-4.
Quote: "Give a player like that a pitch down the heart of the plate, and he doesn't miss it," said manager Dusty Baker after the aforementioned loss to the Braves and gopher ball to Jones.
Cub Epitaph: He threw the ball hard, sometimes over the plate. His best was a little above average; his worst was pretty terrible.
I was picking through some old Chicago Tribune articles in preparation for posting this at The Cub Reporter, and I came across an article by the Trib's Phil Rogers, dated 11/17/02.
It mostly defies comment, except to say that Reds phenoms Bailey and Johnny Cueto are probably in for the rides of their lives, not to mention some quality time with an orthopedic surgeon or two.
The one time you could always count on [Kerry Wood getting angry] was when there were runners on base and the manager--be he Bruce Kimm, Don Baylor or Jim Riggleman--was on his way to pull Wood from a game in which he had the lead.
One side effect of the Dusty Baker hiring is that this should happen less often...We can declare that for the Cubs the pitch count has gone the way of Illinois' death penalty--out of the picture until further notice, though probably not forever...
There are some things we suspect about Baker's approach to managing the Cubs.
He'll be reluctant to sacrifice hitting for fielding.
He'll bunt early and often, as did Baylor.
He'll bring in relievers to get one out...
But there is only one thing we can say definitively about Baker's approach: He'll get the absolute most out of Wood, [Mark] Prior and [Matt] Clement.
No manager pushes his starters harder.
In San Francisco, Baker's starters threw 120 or more pitches more times than any other team in the majors in three of the last four seasons. The only exception came in 2001, when Arizona workhorses Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling had 18 extended outings between them.
During these four seasons, Livan Hernandez and the other Giants starters worked 120-plus pitches 87 times. That's 50 more than the Cubs, who have proceeded with caution since Wood tore a ligament in his elbow after being ridden hard in 1998...
But there's an odd thing about the workload Baker has given the Giants' starters. It seemed to make them stronger.
Hernandez, Russ Ortiz and Kirk Rueter haven't been on the disabled list at any time over the last three seasons.
"A lot of that has to do with the shape [pitchers] are in," Baker said about the durability of San Francisco's starters. "They stay in shape during the winter. ... You've got to give [Giants pitching coach] Dave Righetti a tremendous amount of credit for when they throw in between starts, how much they throw, how much they run and how they stay in shape through the course of the year."
Baker, unlike many managers who were good hitters, never has seemed to have trouble being accepted by his pitchers.
"I considered myself a good clutch hitter, a good hitter, and in order to do that, you have to understand pitchers," Baker said. "You have to be tolerant to the point where you understand your pitchers and take time to understand them. ... I trust my staff and I try to let them do their job and not try to micromanage everything in every department."
Baker used 42 starting pitchers during his 10 years in San Francisco, including 11 in the magical 1993 season. John Burkett and Billy Swift were the only pitchers who made more than 18 starts that season. The rest of the cast included Trevor Wilson, Bud Black, Bryan Hickerson and Jeff Brantley.
Yet the Giants somehow improved from 72-90 to 103-59 in Baker's first season as a manager. And no, it didn't hurt that it was also Barry Bonds' first season in San Francisco.
No one is predicting Baker will trigger anywhere near this kind of a turnaround with the Cubs. But he's going to have fun working with Wood, Prior and Clement.
According to Baseball Prospectus's Playoff Odds Report, the Cubs now have a 0.0% chance of winning the World Series.
The Reds are close to naming a manager, and the Cincinnati Enquirer, among others, says Johnnie B. Baker Jr. has interviewed for the position.
The paper also says the Reds "are known to have interest" in former Cub catcher and ex-Marlins manager Joe Girardi. But it is the prospect of hiring Baker that has moved Cincinnatians to florid prose like this:
"No manager at all would be a step up from Dusty. He mismanages every team he has ever been with!!!"
"Hiring Dusty Baker would be a train wreck and hurt this team for years to come. Please take your time and find the right fit for this team. Dusty Baker is not it!"
"Vote NO for Dusty. If he was any good someone would have taken him already. his comments on ESPN are terrible. he does not use young talent right and that is what we have here. VOTE NO FOR DUSTY"
"I think it has already been said 100 times before, but it is worth putting my 2c in. Dusty Baker would be a disaster for this team. He has a horrendous reputation for overworking his pitching staff and the Reds have a couple of lively young arms. If (Reds GM Wayne) Krivsky hires Baker, he might as well make reservations for (Homer) Baily and (Johnny) Cueto at (Dr. Timothy) Kremchek's table - operating table."
You can read more comments here, but I imagine you get the gist.
In apparent reaction to the Chicago Tribune story that triggered this morning's post, Steve Stone clarified things for the Cub-loving world Thursday:
"I have no desire to be a general manager of a baseball team. Not the Chicago Cubs, not any of them. If any team asked me to be the general manager, I would definitively turn them down. It's a job for a very energetic fellow."
Stone said he has talked to more than one of the groups attempting to buy the Cubs, offering to play the role of adviser to whichever group winds up with the team.
"The role would be determined later, but I'll tell you what it won't be: The role will not be like a president, a chief executive officer, a chief operating officer or a general manager or an assistant to the general manager."
So we don't know the precise role or the title or even the executive group of which Stone would be a part.
Still, I'm going to say that if Steve Stone were to end up with significant player personnel responsibility in the Chicago Cubs organization, he would be one of the least qualified individuals to hold such a position in all of Major League baseball.
Not 48 hours after Steve Stone said on WSCR radio that he would not be a Major League GM this coming season, we have a report that explains how it could happen.
Sure, the Fred Mitchell story could be wrong. Or it could account for why Stone seems to have swapped insight for insufferable, hypercritical, transparent bitterness whenever he talks about the Cubs.
I hope the story is incorrect or that the scenario presented never unfolds. With all that we've endured the past 99 years, there should be no rush to create a North Side version of this.
If you're like me, those WTBS broadcasts are now such a part of the fabric of your life, you simply can't imagine missing them just because the Cubs were spanked and sent to bed by the Diamondbacks.
But who do you root for? Which of the four teams left in the World Series derby deserves the unqualified affection of the world’s millions of woebegone Cub fans (at least for the next couple weeks)?
Naturally it's the team that’s most like the Cubs.
To help you determine who that is, here is a quick summary of what does and doesn’t connect each of the contenders and their home cities to our Cubs and Chicago.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Connections:
- Multitude of Cub fans living in AZ
- HoHoKam Park
- Mark Grace
- Stadium with swimming pool, roof
- Cacti
- Phoenix area still has Jack in the Box
Boston Red Sox
Connections:
- Great old ballpark with narrow seats and horrible food
- Classic uniforms
- Babe Ruth-related issues
- Bill Buckner
- Manager Terry Francona is former Cub
- Cash flow
- Know what to do with their cash flow
Cleveland Indians
Connections:
- Midwest
- Reviled by White Sox fans
- Lou Boudreau
- Insufferable mascot supporters (Ronnie Woo-Woo/Bass Drum Guy)
- Drew Carey is no Bob Newhart (though he beats the crap out of Tom Dreesen)
- Chicago River never caught fire
Colorado Rockies
Connection:
- Snow
- Rocky Mountain Oysters sold in stadium Concession (Sec. 139)
You can make up your own mind. It wouldn't bother me to see the Rockies win it all, but I'm going to pull for the Red Sawks.
The thought of Rocky Mountain Oysters makes me gag.
Crain's Chicago Business (subscription required) reported Monday that progress on the sale of the Cubs is slower than the junk Livan Hernandez threw to break Cub fans' hearts over the weekend.
According to a Crain's source, the boys in Tribune Tower are still trying to figure out how to maximize their return on the transaction, i.e., moving the Cubs, Wrigley Field and Trib's share in Comcast SportsNet in separate transactions or bundling them all in one big bag of billion-dollar fun.
The net of all this is that there now appears to be a distinct possibility that Tribco will continue to own the team well into the new year and even beyond Opening Day 2008, when Carlos Zambrano whizzes that first pitch under the chin of Rickie Weeks.
How that will impact Jim Hendry's budget this winter is, I guess, impossible to say. The Crain's source sounded confident, however, in pronouncing that none of the Cubs' suitors to emerge to date--including the high-profile group led by Chicago financier and friend of Commissioner Selig, John Canning, Jr.--are likely to lose interest because of the delay.
Mark Cuban, for one, is willing to spill his own blood to show how much he wants the team.
“We’re not happy. This is extremely disappointing. We fully felt we were going to come in and play better and didn’t.
“To get this far after all we dealt with as a team all year is a terrific accomplishment. That doesn’t make us feel any better when we wake up tomorrow. It doesn’t make us feel any better about this series.”
“They’re a good team, they were hot, and the bottom line was that we just didn’t hit.”
See? The Cubs aren't the only ones who would like to rewind the last few days.
The first quote is from Angels manager Mike Scioscia.
The second is from the Phillies' Aaron Rowand.
Joe Torre might have something along these lines to share Monday night.
Print this out. Then burn it. And start counting the days until next spring.
The Red Sox' win last night means all four Division Series stand at two-games-to-none. That has happened once before, in 1995, the first-year of the current playoff set-up.
As noted in the last post, three teams have come back to win Divisional series after spotting the opposition a two-game lead. The first of these was the Mariners, who came back to beat the Yankees in that '95 season and were managed by our own Lou Piniella.
Lou is no doubt much wilier now than he was 12 long years ago and engineering a comeback against the Diamondbacks should hardly tax him at all.
I have about eight more hours to find reasons to be optimistic.
I will continue looking.
Correction/optimistic addendum: The previous count was wrong: a fourth team, the '99 Red Sox, also came back from an 0-2 deficit, winning their ALDS against Cleveland.
mir·a·cle [mir-uh-kuhl]
an effect or extraordinary event in the physical world that surpasses all known human or natural powers and is ascribed to a supernatural cause.
əPaul Sullivan points out correctly that just three teams have won Division Series after going down 0-2: the '01 Yanks (beat Oakland); the '03 Red Sox (beat Oakland); and the '95 Mariners (over the Yankees).
Nonetheless, I think that these Cubs are sufficiently talented that they could come back in this series if their big hitters will simply hit, their money pitchers pitch, and if everyone wearing Cubbie blue would quit coming unglued at the first pop-up they hit with men in scoring position or the first gopher ball they throw to an Arizona hitter.
I think the Diamondbacks are beatable; what I'm wondering about just now is if the Cubs have the composure to defeat them.
Ted Lilly's hissy fit, which I wrote about earlier today at The Cub Reporter, was a textbook example of the art form. ("I've never seen a pitcher throw a glove like that on the mound," Cub manager Lou Piniella said.) It also had to let the Arizona bench know that there was Cub blood in the water. Same thing with all of the bat-flinging. Could A-Ram possibly have a bat-flinging incentive written into that big, new contract?
In any case, it's time to knock off the histrionics and show some focus.
Rich Hill goes Saturday night; the reasonably rested Zambrano will go Sunday afternoon if there is still a series to play.
Please, no tantrums.
I hope I have ongoing Cub baseball to write about on Monday.
Not every member of the press corps is ready to string up Lou Piniella for pulling Carlos Zambrano last night in favor of young Marmol.
Jay Schreiber writing in the Bats Blog at nytimes.com:
For selfish reasons, I’d like to see the Cubs win because they’re a great story. Lou Piniella is colorful. He made a controversial decision last night to take Carlos Zambrano out of the game after 85 pitches. He was trying to keep Zambrano’s pitch count down so he could bring him back on three days rest on Sunday. The argument is that you can’t look ahead in the playoffs, just deal with it game by game.
The guy he brought in has been a terrific reliever for them — Carlos Marmol. I’ve been watching him. He’s one of the great unknown assets in Major League Baseball this year. If he got nervous in his first postseason game ever, so be it. But I don’t fault Piniella.
I didn't watch Game 1 so much as I absorbed it: I tuned the tv to TBS, had my Walkman on WGN-Radio (with an occasional trip over to ESPN Radio), and kept MLB Gameday going on my computer. The radio feed was about five seconds ahead of the television and then Gameday was another few seconds behind that. The net effect of this sensory overload was something like motion sickness. Plus the Cubs lost, which was depressing. Motion sickness plus depression. That's a fun package for a Wednesday night.
My wife thought the scene was quite amusing. Then she took note of the front of the Arizona uniforms and asked why the team would have a nickname so long that the nickname required a shorter nickname which would fit on the fronts of the jerseys. I had no good answer to that. She's right. It's stupid. Now I have another reason to dislike the Diamondbacks, assuming they win this series.
Regarding the specifics of last night's game...
A couple weeks ago, I said I hoped Lou would do something decisive and dramatic to ensure the Cubs' success. Pulling his pitcher 85 pitches into an outstanding start in preparation for a possible Game 4 in the NLDS wasn't the kind of thing I had in mind, however his logic is certainly defensible.
More to the point, the fact that he had a reasonable plan and the confidence and courage to execute it knowing the possible downside is just another reason to like our manager. Same thing with inserting Geovany Soto into the middle of a pennant race and including Kevin Hart on the playoff roster.
We lost a road game last night to an excellent pitcher who threw a first-rate game, even better than our ace, who also performed well. Tonight, however, we face a less than excellent pitcher and the Cubs need to pound him.
Besides the 16 out of 20 ESPN.com experts who picked the Cubs to win this series, Nate Silver and Joe Sheehan at Baseball Prospectus have climbed aboard the Cubbie bandwagon. Silver says Cubs will sweep; Sheehan says Cubs in four. (Jayson Stark, by the way, was the only one of those 16 ESPNers to pick the Cubs to win the World Series.)
Also at BP, Will Carroll says an advance scout pointed out to him that Carlos Marmol's velocity has been dropping over the second half of the season, which could be indicative of Marmol's 25-year-old right arm wearing down during his first pennant race. I'm still hoping the Cubs entrust more of those high-leverage relief innings to Bob Howry and Marmol and fewer to Ryan Dempster.
Within the last hour, Lou Piniella made some changes in his previously announced lineup, moving Jacque Jones up, moving Ryan Theriot down and pushing Soto up to seventh. That means the Cub order tonight will look like this:
Soriano LF
Jones CF
Lee 1B
Ramirez 3B
Floyd RF
DeRosa 2B
Soto C
Theriot SS
Zambrano P
Things to muse over while waiting for Alfonso Soriano to hit a lead-off home run against Brandon Webb:
Willie Randolph isn't going anywhere, Walk Jocketty apparently is, and Jayson Stark obviously thought it would be fun to jinx the Cubs.
If you're also a reader of The Cub Reporter and think you may have come across this same post earlier today, you're right: it ran there this morning. If you're not a reader of The Cub Reporter, I am very disappointed in you and think you need to take a long, hard look at yourself in the mirror and question the direction of your life.
In Moneyball, Michael Lewis quotes Oakland Athletics GM Billy Beane as saying:
“My shit doesn't work in the playoffs. My job is to get us to the playoffs. What happens after that is fucking luck.”
In Baseball Between The Numbers, the editors of Baseball Prospectus ask the question raised by Beane’s frank self-analysis:
Why hasn't the guy’s shit worked?
To get to the answer, BP identified 26 different measures of team quality—everything from things like regular season won-loss record, late-season W-L record, run differential, and team playoff experience to the more arcane Percent Of Runs Scored On Home Runs and Isolated Power—and after a lot of number-crunching and analysis, they concluded that three factors have “the most fundamental and direct relationship” to playoff success:
Closer’s Win Expectation Above Replacement (WXRL)
Defined here, WXRL measures the contribution of a team’s closer, i.e., the guy who receives the majority of the save opportunities, toward increasing his team’s probability of winning games.
Pitchers' Strikeout Rate
Just what it sounds like.
Fielding Runs Above Replacement (FRAR)
The total number of runs a team’s fielders saved compared to replacement-level fielders (guys you freely find on the waiver wire or in the minor leagues at a moment's notice).
So how do this year’s NL playoff teams compare on these three key measures? Here’s a look:
Closer WXRL
Arizona (Valverde), 4.269; 4th in NL
Colorado (Corpas), 4.158; 6th in NL
CUBS (Dempster), 2.657; 24th in NL
Philadelphia (Myers), 1.647; 40th in NL
Pitchers’ Striketout Rate (K/9)
CUBS, 7.53
Arizona, 6.80
Philadelphia, 6.48
Colorado, 5.91
Fielding Runs Above Replacement
Colorado, 228
CUBS, 193
Philadelphia, 188
Arizona 158
Not a bad picture for the Cubs, eh? The team’s weak link according to these numbers is pretty obvious. It has red hair, an engaging personality, and in 15 games since September 1st, an ERA of 9.82.
The good news, of course, is that the Cubs have alternatives to Ryan Dempster. Bob Howry (3.129) is 17th in WXRL among NL relievers. Carlos Marmol (3.694) shows up 11th.
Would Lou Piniella entrust closing duties in the playoffs to the 25-year-old Marmol, who has exactly one career save? Almost certainly not—personally, I’d love to see it--but that still leaves Howry. Given how horribly Dempster has pitched lately, I’d argue that Howry, though only 8-for-12 in save opps this season, is actually the smart choice.
Plug Howry into the closer's spot and the team that Jim Hendry built looks fairly formidable according to BP’s yardstick.
And in case you’re wondering about the Billy Beane question posed at the beginning of this post, BP points to a combination of factors that led to the downfall of Beane's 2000-03 playoff teams. These included at various times bad luck, a veteran pitching staff “cobbled together from the waiver wire,” an immature bullpen and some defensively challenged rosters like the 2000 club with an outfield of Ben Grieve, Terrence Long and Matt Stairs, “one of the worst defensive groups in recent memory."
The ten most positive plays in the 2007 Cubs season in terms of Win Probablility Added (all praise and credit to Fangraphs.com):
10.) July 1st, Cubs @ Pirates: Cliff Floyd hits late 2-run homer to beat Bucs, 8-6
.366 Win Probability Added (WPA)
Floyd broke a 5-5 tie when he connected in the 7th inning of a game that began Tuesday night, June 30th, then was suspended due to heavy rains, and completed Wednesday morning. Floyd’s longball landed in the Allegheny River, making him the 21st player to put a ball in the water since PNC Park opened in 2001.
9.) September 15th, Cubs @ Cardinals: Alfonso Soriano connects for 2-run, eighth-inning shot to key 3-2 win
.395 WPA
In the opener of a day-night doubleheader, Alfonso Soriano pounded a 3-2 pitch from Ryan Franklin to put the Cubs ahead and hang the Cardinals with a ninth straight defeat. The win gave the Cubs a two-game margin over the Brewers.
8.) April 22nd, Cardinals @ Cubs: Mark DeRosa’s 2-run single in the last of the ninth sends Cards and Cubs to extra innings
.416 WPA
On a day that saw 18-mph outbound winds, the Cards and Cubs combined for 33 hits. The Cubs trailed 9-7 in the last of the ninth when DeRosa plated Michael Barrett and Alfonso Soriano with a wind-blown single off Cardinal closer Jason Isringhausen to tie the game at 9-9. In the tenth inning, however, Albert Pujols connected for the Cards’ fourth home run of the afternoon, and St. Louis won 10-9.
7.) September 12th, Cubs @ Astros: Ryan Dempster induces 3-6-1 double play to preserve 3-2 victory
.466 WPA
Dempster almost blew a 3-1 ninth-inning lead, allowing the home team to draw within a run, before filling the bases with just one out. Dempster then got Eric Munson to ground the ball to Derrek Lee, who started the game-ending double play, which finished with Dempster taking Ryan Theriot’s throw at first. The win lifted the Cubs back into a first-place tie with the Brewers.
6.) May 6th, Nationals @ Cubs: Ryan Theriot ties game with ninth-inning single
.483 WPA
The Cubs trailed 3-2 in the ninth when Theriot faced Nats closer Chad Cordero with pinch-runner Jason Marquis on second base. Theriot fouled off four 2-2 pitches before singling to drive home Marquis. Daryle Ward’s 10th-inning single gave the Cubs their first one-run victory of 2007.
5.) July 16th, Giants @ Cubs: Aramis Ramirez hits a two-out, two-run double in the eighth inning as Cubs win 3-2
.542 WPA
The Cubs trailed 2-1 with two outs in the last of the eighth, before Ryan Theriot and Derrek Lee singled to bring Ramirez to the plate. The Cub third baseman then ripped a double to bring home Theriot and Lee and help the Cubs stay within 3 1/2 games of the NL Central-leading Brewers.
4.) September 17th, Reds @ Cubs: Aramis Ramirez’s two-run triple ties game in the ninth
.599 WPA
Clinging to a one-game margin over Milwaukee, the Cubs staged a dramatic ninth-inning rally to beat the Reds. With the Cubs down 6-4, Ramirez’s line drive to right center eluded Cincy’s diving centerfielder, Norris Hopper and scored Ryan Theriot and Derrek Lee to tie the game. After Daryle Ward was intentionally walked, Mark DeRosa drove in Ramirez with an infield hit that secured the win.
3.) September 2nd, Astros @ Cubs: Derrek Lee hits a 2-run homer in the eighth to complete a breathtaking Cub comeback
.601 WPA
On a day when both the Brewers and Cardinals had already won, the Cubs clawed back from a 5-1 deficit to beat lowly Houston. Lee came to bat with one out in the eighth inning and Alfonso Soriano on first base, driving his 17th home run of the season into the left field basket. The game was also notable for a spectacular diving catch in left-center field by Jacque Jones
2.) June 25th, Rockies @ Cubs: Soriano’s two-run single erases horrific top of the ninth in Cubs win
.722 WPA
The Cub bullpen spit up an 8-3 ninth inning lead, allowing the visitors to score six runs and go ahead, 9-8. With two runners on and two out in the home ninth, Rockies second baseman Kaz Matsui booted a ground ball hit by Ryan Theriot, Matsui’s first error of the season. Soriano then came up and rapped the game-winning, two-run single. “That's the best moment I've had with Chicago so far," Soriano said afterward.
1.) June 29th, Brewers @ Cubs: Ramirez crushes Cordero and Brewers with ninth-inning blast
.898 WPA
The Cubs won their seventh game in a row to reach .500 for the first time in since May 10th. The Cubs trailed the first-place Brewers 5-3 going into the bottom of the ninth against Milwaukee closer Francisco Cordero. Derrek Lee hit a sacrifice fly to cut the lead to 5-4. Then Ramirez buried a hanging slider from Cordero, scoring Mike Fontenot ahead of him and cinching the 6-5 Cub victory, a win that drew the Cubs to within 6 1/2 games of the Brewers. Lou Piniella’s post-game reaction was controlled. "Let's just play them one at a time," Piniella said. "It's fun for me watching them play with the intensity they're playing with. They're starting to be a confident bunch that they can come from behind. Right now, everything's going well. Let's just play them one at a time, and not get too excited about it."
If you’re keeping score at home, Ramirez was the key figure in three of these top 10 plays, Soriano was the star in two, and Floyd, DeRosa, Dempster, Theriot and Lee headlined one each.
Finally, remembering that the context in which WPA resides is the individual game and that it is disconnected from things like a team’s position in the standings, I thought it was remarkable that four of the Top 10 Cub Plays of 2007 (#2, #4, #7, and #9) occurred within a 15-day span.
It’s no wonder we all felt lightheaded throughout most of September.
