Carlos Zambrano may skip his scheduled Sunday start in the finalé of the Cubs' 4-game series with the Phillies because of a dead BUT NOT INJURED! arm.

(By the way, Lou Piniella isn't even willing to concede the "dead arm" description. As he told Toni Ginnetti of the Sun-Times, ''Zambrano doesn't have a sore arm, and he doesn't have a dead arm. It's muscular in the triceps area, and that's where you get tired.")

Said Cubs pitching coach Larry Rothschild of Zambrano:

"He's pitched a lot of innings in the last six, seven years. You can compare him with a lot of people, but I don't know anyone who has logged the pitches and innings that he has."

Larry Rothschild asked, and I will answer–here are the National League leaders in pitches thrown since 2001:

1. Livan Hernandez 25,789
2. Tom Glavine 24,270
3. Roy Oswalt 23,651
4. Carlos Zambrano 22,458
5. Greg Maddux 22,314
6. Matt Morris 21,372
7. Ben Sheets 21,584
8. Brad Penny 21,204
9. Jake Peavy 20,070
10. Woody Williams 19,932

Carlos' Cub teammate Jason Marquis is 11th on the list at 19,522.

As you might have guessed, the list of NL hurlers with the most innings pitched since '01 contains many of the same names. Maddux heads that list at 1660.2 IP; Zambrano is 7th at 1361.2. Marquis, with 1220 innings logged for the Braves, Cardinals, and Cubs, is 12th.

From reader comments during Thursday night's stirring 6-4 Cubs victory, the Cubs' 50th home victory of the season, as they appeared at The Good Phight, an excellent Phillies fans blog:

A quick timeout from the Cubs to consider other news on the Chicago sports scene...

Longtime sourpuss columnist Jay Mariotti announced on Wednesday that he had resigned his position at the Chicago Sun-Times, a development which occasioned a pointed reaction from Sun-Times editor Michael Cooke. Per Phil Rosenthal in the Tribune:

Cooke issued a decidedly unsentimental statement concerning Mariotti's exit..."We wish Jay well and will miss him--not personally, of course--but in the sense of noticing he is no longer here, at least for a few days."

The irony of all this is twofold.

First, the Sun-Times agreed with Mariotti on a contract extension until 2011 less than three months ago.

Second, Cooke's brief statement is more memorable than anything Mariotti has written in the past 17 years.

---

With Wednesday's 2-0 win at Pittsburgh, the Cubs finished the fleshy underbelly part of their late-season schedule—a sequence of three series and nine games against the Reds, Nationals, and Pirates—with seven wins and two losses and a six-game lead over the Brewers in the NL Central. Now the Cubs have to get back to work.

On Thursday, the team will open a four-game set against the Phillies at Wrigley Field. Though the Phils lost to the Mets Wednesday to fall a half-game behind New York in the N.L. East race, they will come to Chicago still able to lay claim to a distinction unique so far this year in the National League:

The Phillies are the only team to enjoy an edge in their season series with the Cubs. (Charlie Manuel's team took two of three from Lou Piniella's boys at Citizens Bank Park back in mid-April.)

Tuesday's 14-9 Cub win at Pittsburgh may go down as the game that cemented Geovany Soto's selection as 2008 National League Rookie of the Year. Geo had a pair of three-run doubles, a solo homer, and 7 RBI overall. Soto has now hit more home runs than any rookie catcher in Cub history and his batting line, which currently stands at .280 AVG/20 HR/78 RBI, will wind up as one of the best ever by a Cub catcher, rookie or otherwise.

Also positive—Kosuke Fukudome's throw from rightfield to nail rookie Brandon Moss on his way to third base; Carlos Zambrano continuing to hit like a sonofagun (eighth consecutive start in which he has driven in a run); Mike Fonenot, who entered the game in the bottom of the fifth, going 2-for-2 and also making a fine, diving play in the field.

On the negative side of Tuesday's fun, however, we have:

Zambrano pitching like hell: 8 hits, 6 ER in just 4 1/3 innings. Not the first time our supposed ace has turned in game like this. In fact, it's the third time in Zambrano's last four starts that he has pitched quite poorly.

Alfonso Soriano bunny-hopping his way to another embarrassing error on a routine fly ball. The only thing worse then giving the opposition an extra out and a free run, which Fonzie did with his flub in the sixth inning, is injuring yourself in the process, which, as we all know, Soriano has also done this season. For the love of God and Lou Piniella...NO...MORE...HOPPING!

Ben Sheets pitching like Ben Sheets. The Milwaukee righty helped the Brewers vanquish the Cardinals, 12-0, at Busch Stadium to stay within five games of the first-place Cubs. It's a tad frustrating that the Cubs have played as well as they have lately and still, the Brewers are within haling distance of first place. For their part, the Brewers have won 14 out of 18 and not gained a game or even a half game on the Cubs. There is some consolation for the Milwaukees, however:

By shutting out the Cards Tuesday, the Brewers now have a 4 1/2 game lead in the Wild Card race.

With a division lead of 5 games, a record that now stands a dizzying 31 games above .500, a .614 winning percentage that's higher than the season-ending number for any Cub team since 1945, and a 98.89% chance of making the playoffs (according to Baseball Prospectus's Playoff Odds Report), the Cubs are making me feel...do I dare use the word?...hopeful.

On the other hand, consider this thought which crossed my mind as I was watching tonight's rout:

If the Brewers had simply managed a split of their big four-game series with the Cubs several weeks ago in Milwaukee instead of spitting the bit in all four contests, the Cubs' record would be 79-52, the Brewers' record would be just one game worse at 78-53, and everyone in the Cub-loving universe would be even more obsessed with the moment-by-moment reports from MLB.com Gameday than we already are.

No spine-tingling drama coming out of Pittsburgh tonight, however, as Ted Lilly shut down the Pirates while Lee, Edmonds, and Fukudome—two of whom, Edmonds and Fukudome, have been non-contributors this month while Lee has been so-so at best—conspired to bash the Pirates' brains in. The trio went a combined 9-for-13 with four doubles, a triple, 4 runs scored, and 6 RBI. Lilly, meanwhile, is now 13-7, has won 6 of his last 7, and has delivered Quality Starts in 9 of his last 11 outings.

And if you're wondering how the late, great Harry Caray might have reacted to all this, you don't have to wonder—just hear what he has to say following every Cub game the rest of the season at 1908worldchampions.com.

On Thursday, Carlos Zambrano hit his 16th career home run, and it was a good thing that he did: the Cub offense, which sputtered in the three-game series with Cincinnati, only produced two other runs against Josh Fogg, et al, and the Cubs needed Zambrano's blast to prevail, 3-2, and take the series, 2 games to 1.

With 16 bombs, Zambrano has hit more home runs than any other Cub pitcher in history. (Fergie Jenkins is second with 13, and I thought this was surprising—Kerry Wood is the only other recent player near the top. He stands in seventh place with 7 career homers.)

But why focus on the positive when the negative numbers are so easily captured by BaseballReference.com? Here, then, is a list of the non-pitchers who had the most career at-bats as a Chicago Cub since 1961 and still hit fewer home runs than a pitcher with a mere 483 at-bats, Carlos Zambrano. (Players are listed in order of career AB's as a Cub.)

1. Don Kessinger 11 HR, 6355 AB
2. Ivan DeJesus 14 HR, 2900 AB
3. Rey Sanchez 6 HR, 1835 AB
4. Joe Girardi 13 HR, 1719 AB
5. Larry Bowa 2 HR, 1584 AB
6. Ken Hubbs 14 HR, 1255 AB
7. Dick Bertell 10 HR, 1247 AB
8. Eric Young 12 HR, 1210 AB
9. Jerome Walton 12 HR, 1192 AB
10. Ryan Theriot 7 HR, 1144 AB

On the WGN pre-game show before Wednesday night's Cubs-Reds broadcast, Ron Santo mentioned that the wind was blowing in off the lake, which is atypical for a late summer game at Wrigley Field but was a repeat of the conditions for Tuesday night's game. Santo's prediction of a low-scoring game proved correct, as the Reds totaled just four hits and the Cubs three, with the visitors ultimately winning 2-1.

Lou Piniella was clearly peeved afterward at the loss and the Cubs' failure to cash in on scoring opportunities like the one they faced in the fourth inning. Then Kosuke Fukudome came up with men at first and third and none out and couldn't even produce a double-play ball that would have plated a run. Instead, he blooped a fly ball to short center that produced nothing more than the first out of the inning, after which Geovany Soto rapped into a rally-killing double play.

It's hard to blame Soto, who has been so productive this year, but impossible not to blame Fukudome, who has been less than feeble for a very long time. Piniella's warning last week that Fukudome had to start hitting or expect to see his playing time curtailed could well get repeated in coming days if the Cub rightfielder's bat doesn't wake up.

Fukudome's OPS by Month:
March/April 915
May 792
June 789
July 688
August 455

Fukudome's batting average, which didn't dip below .300 until May 26th of this season, is now at a season low .266, and his average for the month of August is around .170.

All in all, Wednesday night's game was a turd, especially for Ted Lilly, who carried a no-hitter into the sixth inning and was masterful overall. He deserved better than Fukudome and his mates gave him.

In light of the seven shutout innings the Cubs got from their newest starting pitcher Tuesday night and the complete-game win the Brewers got from their former American Leaguer Monday night—C.C. Sabathia's eighth without a defeat for Milwaukee—I have a post up at The Cub Reporter. It compares recent numbers from the Cubs' Rich Harden, Sabathia and relevant, 24-year-old numbers for Rick Sutcliffe, who made such a big difference in the NL East race back in 1984.

One other item of interest related to Harden:

In the post-game lockerroom chatter, Ryan Theriot was marveling at Harden's performance considering "he is only throwing two pitches." I presume that means fastball and change-up, which was not the company line from Cubs Assistant G.M. Randy Bush right after the trade that landed the righthander and Chad Gaudin from the Athletics, when Bush said Harden has still throwing his full repertoire of pitches, breaking ball included.

But maybe that's quibbling, and I should just be thrilled with a guy who, injury-prone or not, has a 1.50 ERA and a better than four-to-one K/BB ratio in his first seven National League starts.

Consider me thrilled.

For the second time in two years, former Cub Greg Maddux, most recently of the Padres, has been traded to Los Angeles. No word yet on whom the Dodgers will be sending to San Diego to complete the deal for the future Hall of Famer, who was 6-9, 3.99 for a terrible Padres team.

Maddux's first move west happened back on July 31, 2006. With the Cubs languishing in 5th place in the NL Central at 43-62 and 15 1/2 games behind the first-place Cardinals, Jim Hendry gave the future Hall of Famer a chance to play a role in yet another pennant race. At the time, the Dodgers were 50-55, but just 5 games off the NL West lead then held by the Padres.

Maddux justified the deal by going 6-3, 3.60 over the season's final two months and helping to pitch Los Angeles into the playoffs, where they were dispatched in three straight NLDS games by the Mets. Mad Dog started the third and climactic game in that series, though he went just four innings and was hit hard.

In exchange for Maddux, the Cubs acquired shortstop Cesar Izturis, who was with the team for 12 days short of one calendar year and was terrible, eventually being shipped to the Pirates, before he joined the Cardinals this past off-season.

A hallmark of this Cub season has been the team's prodigious scoring (656 runs scored through 121 games; nearly .5 run more per game than the second-ranking Mets), and a key component of that offense has been the team's ability to take walks and take pitches that leave them in "hitters' counts."

All of that said, The Hardball Times on Thursday linked to a great new baseball stats site called StatCorner created by Matthew Carruth and Graham MacAree. Among the numbers available there are the percentages of pitches seen which individual players swing at.

Here are the Swing Percentages for the 2008 Cubs. (Note: on average, MLB hitters swing at approximately 45% of the pitches thrown their way.)

• Blanco, 49.9%
• Cedeño, 52.2%
• DeRosa, 42%
• Edmonds, 43.6%
• Fontenot, 41.6%
• Fukudome, 40.7%
• Johnson, 45.1%
• Lee, 42.2%
• Ramirez, 45.6%
• Soriano, 52.5%
• Soto, 41.9%
• Theriot, 39.3%
• Ward, 42%

As you can see, of the nine Cub regulars (that's including both Jim Edmonds and Reed Johnson), only Soriano, Ramirez, and Johnson swing at more than the average number of pitches, and Ramirez and Johnson do so just barely. Ryan Theriot and Kosuke Fukudome swing at markedly fewer pitches than average.

Interestingly, Ramirez's swing percentage is his lowest since joining the Cubs in '03, and Soriano's, while highest on the team, is significantly lower than last year's 57.9%. Not coincidentally, I think, Ramirez's current OBP (.385) would be far and away a career high, and Soriano's .344 would be his second-highest in ten Major League seasons.

With Wednesday's doubleheader sweep, the Cubs are assured of no worse than 5-1 record against the Braves this season, pending the result of Thursday's series finale. That's the best record by percentage the Cubs have ever had in a season series against Atlanta. In both 1969 and '84, the Cubs took 9 of 12 (.750) from the Braves; in '99, the Cubs went 5-2 (.714).

Also, the Cubs have now won seven road games in a row, in which they have outscored opponents 59-19, and in all but one of those games, the Cubs have scored at least 7 runs.

My question is, when are the Cubs going to start playing as well at home as they do on the road?

Ted Lilly (11-6) faces Tom Glavine (2-3) Thursday at 6pm CDT.

On Sunday, Lou Piniella said Kosuke Fukudome—with 2 HR and an OPS of 602 since July 1st—would have to snap out of his slump if he wanted to hold his place in the Cubs lineup.

On Saturday when the Braves played the Diamondbacks, Bobby Cox's batting order did not include Jeff Francoeur, who has hit just .209 with 6 HR in 90 games since April 25th and has just 1 HR in his last 176 at-bats. Instead Cox started rookie Gregor Blanco, who went o-for-2 with 3 walks.

On Tuesday, Paul Sullivan of the Tribune reported that Piniella was backing away from what he said a little more than 48 hours previously:

In [Tuesday night's scheduled] game...[Piniella] had Fukudome in right field and hitting second in the lineup.

"We want this young man to hit," Piniella said. "We're pulling for him. … I never said I was disappointed. All I said, basically, was we'd like to see him start hitting—and it created a stir. I mean, I've said that about other players.

"He's a good player, a real good player, and to his credit, he has continued to hustle and he has played really well in right field. He's just in a little bit of a slump...He's not working the count the way he was earlier. He just needs to swing at more strikes.

"I really respect him and I really like him as a player. But I get asked every day, and I said, 'Look, if a guy is struggling, whether it's Fukudome or anybody else—if he continues to struggle, you try to find somebody else who's swinging the bat. That's all I said. And if it created a stir, I'm sorry."

Of Francoeur, David O'Brien wrote in Tuesday's Atlanta Journal-Constitution:

The erstwhile Braves "Golden Boy" has been mentioned in trade rumors — something inconceivable a year ago when he was on his way to a second consecutive plus-100 RBI season.

He has regressed from 29 homers in his first full season in 2006, to 19 homers last season and nine homers and 49 RBIs through 118 games this season.

Francoeur is struggling to a great degree in two areas where he previously excelled — hitting with runners in scoring position and against left-handers.

After batting .338 with runners in scoring position in 2005, .320 in 2006, and .341 in 2007, Francoeur is worst among Braves regulars with a .186 average with runners in scoring position this season.

According to O'Brien, Blanco will man rightfield in the opener of Wednesday's day/night doubleheader, and Francoeur, who was actually demoted to the Braves' Double-A Mississippi team for a weekend last month, will start in the nightcap.

At various times this season, the Braves, who host the Cubs in the first of three games beginning Tuesday night, have faced starting pitchers Ben Sheets, Jake Peavy, C.C. Sabathia, Tim Lincecum, Edinson Volquez, Brandon Webb, Carlos Zambrano, and Johan Santana (multiple times). But in the judgment of manager Bobby Cox, the guy they'll go up against Tuesday surpasses them all.

"[Rich Harden] is the best pitcher we've seen this year," Cox said. "He's very impressive."

Harden pitched against Cox's Braves on May 17th, when he was still with Oakland. In that game, in which he dueled former teammate Tim Hudson, Harden allowed 1 run and 4 hits over 7 innings. He fanned 8 and walked 1. The A's wound up winning 5-4 after the Athletics bullpen allowed Atlanta a 3-run ninth inning.

Tuesday night, Harden will be opposed by Charlie Morton, who is just 3-5, 5.70, but has pitched well the last two times out, against the Diamondbacks and Brewers.

Henry Blanco had the game-winning hit in Friday's 3-2, 11-inning Cub victory over the Cardinals, but it was Jim Edmonds's two home runs against his former mates that commanded the day's highlight reel.

Back in May when Edmonds was newly a Cub, some jerk set up a sort of Jim Edmonds Death Watch tied to the number of at-bats the centerfielder could accumulate without earning his first RBI in Chicago blue pinstripes. The number reached 26 before Edmonds clubbed his first Cub home run in a 10-9 win over the Rockies, and the fact is, Edmonds has been producing ever since. Heading into Friday's action, Edmonds's offensive numbers as a Cub were .279 AVG/.381 OBP/.588 SLG/969 OPS. In 56 games, he has hit 14 HR and collected 38 RBI.

Moreover, coupling Edmonds's offense with that of fellow centerfielder Reed Johnson (.299/.363/.444), the Cubs have gotten the second best productivity in the NL from a position that looked like a potential offensive sinkhole for them back on Opening Day, when it was manned by non-hitting Felix Pie.

Here's a look at the offense, as measured by OPS, which National League teams have gotten from their respective centerfielders (team's primary CF is in parens):

1. St. Louis (Rick Ankiel) 854
2. CUBS (Jim Edmonds) 853
3. San Diego (Jody Gerut) 844
4. Pittsburgh (Nate McLouth) 835
5. Philadelphia (Shane Victorino) 828
6. New York (Carlos Beltran) 795
7. Milwaukee (Mike Cameron) 791
8. Atlanta (Mark Kotsay) 749
9. San Francisco (Aaron Rowand) 739
10. Arizona (Chris Young) 721
11. Washington (Lastings Milledge) 718
12. Florida (Cody Ross) 715
13. Cincinnati (Corey Patterson) 698
14. Colorado (Willy Taveras) 658
15. Los Angeles (Matt Kemp) 621
16. Houston (Michael Bourn) 590

From the official Philadelphia Phillies press release announcing the acquisition of reliever Scott Eyre from the Cubs in exchange for minor league righty Brian Schlitter:

Eyre, 36, had appeared in only 19 games for the Cubs this season due to two separate stints on the disabled list for left elbow inflammation and a strained left groin. He was 2-0 with a 7.15 ERA with 14 strikeouts in 11.1 innings (11.1 SO/9.0 IP). His first 14 appearances of the season were scoreless (9.0 IP). Against the National League this season, Eyre is 2-0 with a 3.24 ERA in 14 games. Six of the nine earned runs he has allowed this year have come against American League teams.

So now you know.

With Wednesday afternoon's resounding 11-4 win over the Astros, the Cubs completed the 20-games-in-20-days gauntlet that awaited them following the All-Star break.

Here is how Lou Piniella's team fared in that stretch, which commenced with a Friday night game in Houston back on July 18th:

Won: 12
Lost: 8
Runs Scored: 108 (5.4/game)
Runs Allowed: 71 (3.6/game)

Some impressive individual numbers...

Alfonso Soriano, who didn't even return from the Disabled List until July 23rd and so, only played in 15 of the 20 games, has helped reinvigorate the Cub offense during this span by going 23-for-66 (.348) with 6 HR and 15 RBI. Reed Johnson, who saw extra playing time while Jim Edmonds rested his banged up body, went a scorching 17-for-36 (.472) with 3 HR and 9 RBI.

Newcomer Rich Harden, despite getting cuffed around by the Astros on Tuesday, posted some stunning figures in his four starts, like 37 strikeouts against just 6 walks in 24 2/3 IP with a 669 OPS Against. And Harden's fellow former Oakland Athletic, reliever Chad Gaudin, earned 3 of the Cubs' 12 victories in the 20 games, with 16 strikeouts, 3 walks, and a handsome 1.80 ERA over 10 innings.

Finally, the standings facts...

Cubs' position at beginning of 20 games: 1st, +4.5 games over St. Louis; +5 over Milwaukee
Cubs' position at end of 20 games: 1st, +5 over Milwaukee (12-8 in this period), +5.5 over St. Louis (11-9)

Obviously it would have been swell if the Cubs had been able to separate themselves from their two NL Central rivals over these past 20 games. On the other hand, neither team was able to bite into the Cubs' advantage at the All-Star break and there are now 20 fewer games remaining on the teams' regular season slates, which has a lot to do with this piece of arithmetic:

By the reckoning of ESPN and coolstandings.com, the Cubs currently have an 81.4% probability of winning the division and a 94.6% likelihood of making the post-season.