A Hundred Next Years

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2010-04-15T23:57:00.002-05:00

If you've found your way here, I hope you will click here to read "A Hundred Next Years" at its new home.

Mesa Mayor Defends Stadium Funding Plan, 140 Characters at a Time

2010-02-13T22:51:00.005-06:00

The honorable Scott Smith, mayor of Mesa, Arizona, the 38th largest city in the United States, had a lot to say on Thursday about the so-called "Cubs Tax," a surcharge on tickets to all Cactus League games that would help fund a new Cubs stadium in Mesa. And he said it on Twitter.

As tweeted by @Mayor_Smith...

Truth Alert #1: Proposed legislation to benefit ALL Cactus League teams not just Cubs.

Truth Alert #2: Whether or not you like publicly financed stadiums, Leg, county govt AND voters all approved. It's been system for years.

Truth Alert #3: AZ Sports Auth has has used tourist taxes to fund $183 mil for stadiums in 6 cities for 9 teams other than Cubs.

Truth Alert 3 Clarification: That's $183 mil on spring training facilities only.

Truth Alert #4: Cubs fans bought 22% of Cactus League tics and resp for 1/3 of econ activity. Result: Cubs fans pay most tourist tax by far!

Truth Alert #5: Stadium where White Sox train received most AZSTA funding at $60 mil.

"Truth Alert" sounds more like something you'd hear from Stephen Colbert than from the mayor of the 38th largest city in the United States. But the controversial plan in the Arizona legislature known as House Bill 2736A is coming under spirited attack from the White Sox and Mariners and (supposedly) all of the other Cactus League teams, and the mayor is clearly concerned that the biggest spring training draw in all of Arizona may again start flirting with those developers in Naples, Florida.

Don't Look Bak: Arcane Cubs List of the Week

2009-03-30T22:25:00.005-05:00

The 11 times that a Major League club has bid Paul Bako adieu:

November 11, 1997. Traded by the Reds to the Tigers.
January 14, 1999. Traded by the Tigers to the Astros.
April 11, 2000. Sold by the Astros to the Marlins.
July 21, 2000. Placed on waivers by the Marlins; claimed by the Braves.
March 20, 2002. Traded by the Braves to the Brewers.
November 26, 2002. Traded by the Brewers to the Cubs.
October 29, 2004. Granted free agency; signed with Dodgers, Jan. '05.
October 31, 2005. Granted free agency; signed with Royals, Dec. '05.
October 31, 2006. Granted free agency; signed with Orioles, Dec. '06.
October 30, 2007. Granted free agency; signed with Reds, Feb. '08
March 30, 2009. Released by the Cubs.

To recap, that's Reds, Tigers, Astros, Marlins, Braves, Brewers, Cubs, Dodgers, Royals, Orioles, Reds, and Cubs. Along the way, Bako has played in 745 games and compiled a lifetime OPS+ of 62. In his previous stint with the Cubs, in '03 and '04, he appeared in 119 games and hit just .218. But who's to say this is the end of the road for the 36-year-old? Not Cubs manager Lou Piniella.

"The important thing is hopefully Paul can get a Major League job. He's a capable Major League catcher. If he can get a Major League job, I'll be happy.

Besides, there are 20 Major League teams Paul has yet to play for.

Bako statistics and transaction history from Baseball-Reference.com.

Great Moments in Ron Santo Irony

2009-03-29T22:28:00.006-05:00

On Saturday, WGN Radio selected Judd Sirott to replace Cory Provus as the third man in the Cubs booth along with Ron Santo and Pat Hughes. Sirott has been handling pre-game, post-game, and between-period duties on WGN's Blackhawks broadcasts this season. Previously, he was play-by-play man for the Chicago Wolves of the AHL.

Sirott auditioned for the job earlier this spring down in Mesa. He received this review from his new boothmate Santo:

"[Sirott] was here for two games...The two innings he did, he was a little nervous at first, but then settled in."

Given what I've heard of Sirott's hockey work and the limited role he will have during the Cubs broadcasts—one inning of play-by-play plus the occasional score updates—I'm sure he will be fine.

But how awful must his audition have been for Ron Santo to say he sounded nervous?!

What Do $1.5 Billion Confines Look Like?

2009-03-06T01:59:00.003-06:00

I stumbled across this photographic tour of the new Yankee Stadium tonight in the middle of the Wall Street Journal's newly expanded sports section. (Both the online and offline Journals are seeing the enhanced sports coverage.)

After marveling at what must be the world's most imposing baseball stadium, a park in which the Cubs and Yanks will play exhibition games on April 3rd and 4th, I got to thinking about the Cubs' yet-to-be-developed Triangle Development, which was going to be part of a Wrigley Field campus.

It says a lot about the political power of the Yankees and the Steinbrenners in New York City and about the complications of doing business in Chicago, not to mention the hopelessly messy state of Cubs ownership, that Yankee Stadium is what it is and that the Cubs' Triangle Building is still non-existent.

A Bold Prediction

2009-02-22T15:55:00.002-06:00

The Cubs are starting Kerry Wood tonight against Houston. I have a feeling the young righthander has a big game in him tonight.

Be sure you don't miss any of the action.

Those Nasty, Illiterate Mets Fans: Arcane Cubs List of the Week

2009-01-29T21:12:00.006-06:00

Random wisdom dispensed by the New York Met faithful over the past few months at "Aaron Heilman Sucks", a discussion forum dedicated to the newest Chicago Cub.

I wish nothing but bad things upon this guy. He has caused mets fan way to much pain. Heilman forced me to cut my self during games.

did you know heilman means homerun in german? LMAO

To Kerri Heilman please say to your husband Aaron when your home at night Heilman you suck please quit for the good of the team.

It is amazing how bad he is, if i was the mets GM i'd trade him to Guatamala for an old donkey and a sick monkey

Aaron can be very effective. You guys are way to harsh on him. I would be willing to bet most of you wouldn't have the sack to to say any of these things to him if you were alone in a room with him.

what a complete moron, jesus, i hate this guy

For the record, in six years with the Mets, Heilman went 22-33, 4.24 with an ERA+ of 100, i.e., dead on the league average. Though this November, he laid a start-me-or-trade-me demand on the Mets—who traded him to the Mariners who traded him to the Cubs—the Notre Dame grad was far more effective as a relief pitcher than as a starter:

Heilman in relief: 3.52 in 280 games (316 2/3 IP), 289 K vs. 119 BB
Heilman as a starter: 5-13 in 25 starts, 5.93 ERA, 106 K vs. 66 BB

Regardless of the numbers, Heilman figures to see duty in both roles with the Cubs.

Gammons on the Cubs

2009-01-24T14:37:00.003-06:00

The Chicago National League Ballclub is all over Saturday's installment of the Peter Gammons blog at ESPN.com.

Regarding the decision of the Man Who Would Be Cubs Closer, Carlos Marmol, to play in this spring's World Baseball Classic:

Wonderful. Here's a 26-year-old with dazzling talent, a kid who fanned a third of the batters he faced last year, and with Kerry Wood gone to Cleveland and Ryan Dempster an All-Star in the Cubs' rotation is supposed to be the closer for a Cubs team whose expectations are to go farther than the first round of the 2009 playoffs. Marmol is heating up in January while pitching in the Dominican League playoffs, then he's going to go to spring training and slow it down, then turn it up again in the WBC, return to spring training and slow it down, then head north and be expected to be a shutdown closer beginning on Opening Day.

Start. Stop. Start. Stop. Start. And there is a full season ahead...

...there are risks, and if a Jake Peavy or John Lackey or Francisco Rodriguez or Carlos Marmol is hurting in May or September, then there may have to be a lot more thought that goes into the next time the event is held.

Regarding the new Colorado Rockie, Jason Marquis:

Derek Lowe's deal with the Braves re-emphasizes the value teams place on reliability. Which makes one wonder if the Cubs won't miss Jason Marquis, who pitched a combined 358 2/3 innings in the past two seasons, more than they realize right now.

And finally, regarding Rich Harden, who decided not to pitch for Canada in the WBC:

Rich Harden had two choices at the end of last season because of the shoulder issues he's fought through: Either have surgery or try to rehab. Harden chose the rehab. He has worked really hard all winter, and if the Cubs can get 15-20 starts from him in 2009, they will be happy. And with new ownership in place, we know the possibility of trading for Jake Peavy will be re-addressed.

Ricketts Wins Right to Pay $900 Million for Cubs

2009-01-22T22:20:00.004-06:00

Forty-three-year-old Wilmette billionaire Thomas S. Ricketts and his family are Tribune Company's "preferred bidder" for the Cubs.

Tom Ricketts is the son of J. Joe Ricketts, founder of Omaha, Nebraska-based TD Ameritrade, and is of no relation whatsoever to former Cardinal Dave Ricketts, whose image on this 1968 Topps card has haunted me since I was a baseball card-collecting kid back in 1968.

More about the new owner-in-waiting, who currently sits on the board of the company his father founded, though he was never employed by it:

Thomas S. Ricketts is the chairman and chief executive officer of Incapital LLC, a company he co-founded in 1999. Incapital is a technologically oriented investment bank focused exclusively on the underwriting and distribution of fixed-income products to individual investors. Incapital underwrites for several major U.S. corporations through its InterNotes product platform. From 1996 to 1999, Ricketts was a vice president and an investment banker for the brokerage division of ABN AMRO. From 1995 to 1996, he was a vice president at Mesirow Financial. From 1988 to 1994, Ricketts was a market maker on the Chicago Board Options Exchange. He holds a bachelor's degree and an MBA from the University of Chicago.

Pads Have Sweet Spot for Ex-Cubs: I-Cubs Get to Fly Charter

2009-01-15T20:41:00.008-06:00

The Padres have signed former Cub pitching prospect and convicted osprey killer Jae Kuk Ryu. Here is what ex-Dodgers GM and current Padres exec Paul DePodesta has to say about the pickup on his blog:

Jae Kuk Ryu is a 25-year old right-handed pitcher from Seoul, South Korea. Originally signed for $1.6 million by the Cubs in 2001, Ryu has spent parts of the past three seasons in the Majors with Chicago and Tampa Bay. His 2008 season ended prematurely, however, as he was shut down in May and had relatively minor elbow surgery in June.

Ryu's fastball sits around 90 mph while reaching as high as 92, and he complements it with both a curveball and a changeup. According to our scouts, all of his pitches grade out as at least Major League average, and he can throw all three for strikes. Given his repertoire and success as a starter in the minor leagues, we believe Ryu can compete for a spot in our rotation or our pen. He has one minor league option remaining.

The Ryu pickup comes a couple days after the Padres re-signed Mark Prior, about whom DePodesta wrote on Tuesday:

A San Diego native, we signed Mark last year to a Major League contract after the Cubs declined to tender him a contract. After progressing well early in the spring, Mark had a setback that required another surgery and cost him the rest of the season.

Mark has now lost the entirety of the last two seasons to injury, but when he pitches he can be dominant. In his first four seasons in Chicago (2002-2005) Mark used the power fastball/curveball combo to pitch 613 innings with a 3.24 ERA.

Mark has been working out all winter here in Petco, and we're encouraged by his progress. If we can get him back and healthy for us in 2009 we believe he could make a significant difference.

"...when he pitches he can be dominant."

Indeed, Paul, indeed.

(By the way, I'm completely distraught that Ivy Leaguer DePodesta would start the Prior passage with a dangling modifier. Harvard should demand that he return his diploma.)

A year after the Cubs' Class-A Peoria affiliate drew 26,000 fans to a regular season Midwest League game at Wrigley Field, the Triple-A Iowa Cubs will follow suit, meeting Las Vegas in a Pacific Coast League contest in The Friendly Confines on August 9th.

Apart from the major market exposure and a cut of the gate, the I-Cubs, or at least the I-Cub players, will realize another benefit from the game:

(Iowa G.M. Sam) Bernabe said he will transport both teams to Chicago on a chartered airplane.

“I can’t expect them to bus six hours to Chicago after a Saturday night game, and then bus back another six hours Sunday and for a Monday game. The exposure – that’s what makes the trip worth it.”

Cubs Sale Process Extends a Few Days Closer to Infinity

2009-01-13T12:27:00.003-06:00

The long-running comedy hit, "Zelling the Cubs," has been extended. Tribune Company is giving the remaining bidders for the Cubs a few more days to consider their final bids.

Speaking of which, The Heckler offers a profile of the prospective owners that is too good not to share.

illWay Utay etGay ubsCay?

2009-01-07T22:18:00.003-06:00

-- Blogging for Crain's Chicago Business on Wednesday, Ed Sherman reveals that he was a classmate of Mark Utay, the New York private equity investor whose surname sounds like Pig Latin but isn't and who also happens to be one of three finalists in the bidding for the Cubs.

The stories make it seem like Mr. Utay is some sort of outsider. Why we would want a New Yorker to own the Cubs? I know better. Mr. Utay and I went to high school together, graduating in New Trier West's Class of 1977.

Rahm Emanuel also was part of that class. Emanuel, Utay, Sherman. Well, two out of three ain't bad.

I can't say Mr. Utay and I were fast friends. We were acquaintances who knew a lot of the same people. That's what happens when you're part of a class of 700 students. I looked up Mr. Utay in our yearbook. He was pictured with the debate team and was an associate editor of the high school newspaper. I talked to a mutual friend who remembered Mr. Utay as being bright and opinionated. He didn't recall him being a great baseball fan, but obviously he has plenty of interest now.

The "not being a great baseball fan" part bothers me. I would like to nominate another New Trier West alum to become the next owner of the Cubs—Rick Malnati, former Bradley University basketball player and later the school's basketball coach. Malnati is also the son of the late Chicago pizza magnate, Lou Malnati.

Unlike Utay, Malnati is a true sports guy. And I'm thinking the quality of the food at Wrigley Field would increase greatly.

-- John Dewan's Stat of the Week column this week lists the "Top ten reasons to feel good about what the Cubs are doing this winter." Three of the ten reasons have to do with recently signed Milton Bradley and three have to do with Mike Fontenot.

#3—Since Mike Fontenot (age 29) will replace DeRosa (age 34) the Cubs will be younger by five years.

#2—Mike Fontenot’s plus/minus at second base last year was +11, DeRosa’s was -8. The Cubs defense at 2B will improve.

#1—Fontenot’s projected OPS next year is .809. DeRosa’s projected OPS is.783. Fontenot is actually the better hitter!

-- Finally, speaking of Bradley, Jon Weisman of Dodger Thoughts, who got an up-close view of the outfielder during Bradley's time in L.A., offered the following in discussing the deal that Pat Burrell signed with Tampa, not as rich a package as the one Bradley got from the Cubs.

Bradley is a fine hitter but one who comes with his own set of problems, some of which the media is only too happy to overemphasize. "Bradley's history of temper flare-ups could be cause for as much concern as the injury history," writes Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times, even though his paper reports that Bradley has missed only nine games in his career because of suspension.
Ever since he got caught up in domestic abuse allegations in 2005, I have abstained from weighing in on Bradley's character. Nevertheless, I find that many of those who make a moral case against Bradley are much more forgiving of serious personal flaws in other ballplayers. As far as on-field performance goes, I'd be more worried about Bradley's physical condition than his mental condition.

Taking the Measure of Jason Marquis

2009-01-06T22:11:00.005-06:00

"If he can win 15 ballgames and pitch 200 innings, he's a good guy for us."

So said Cubs GM Jim Hendry on December 19, 2006, the day that Jason Marquis agreed to a 3-year/$21 million free agent deal that brought the pitcher to Chicago from St. Louis.

On Tuesday, the Cubs and Rockies completed the deal that sends Marquis to Colorado in exchange for reliever Luis Vizcaino. While Marquis failed to reach the 15-win or 200-IP thresholds in either of his seasons with the Cubs, he did a respectable job—maybe a more than respectable job—for a #5 starter type of guy.

Marquis's two-season Cub totals:

23 wins, 18 losses, 358 2/3 IP in 63 starts (about 5 2/3 IP per start), 200 K, 146 BB

More impressive: Marquis's Cub ERA was 4.57, which was dead even with the National League average ERA for 2007-08--again, not too bad for a #5 guy.

Finally, to put Marquis's performance in context, here is a list of NL pitchers who, over the past two years, posted a cumulative ERA+ of 95-105 while throwing at least 350 innings. (ERA+ of 100 = league average; higher ERA+ is better.) The pitcher's two-year salary is listed last.

Jeff Francis (COL) 104 $3.75MM
Jamie Moyer (PHI) 104 $12.5MM
Bronson Arroyo (CIN) 102 $8.7MM
Jason Marquis (CUBS) 100 $11.125MM
Paul Maholm (PITT) 99 $827,500
Greg Maddux (SD) 96 $20MM
Braden Looper (STL) 95 $10MM
Ian Snell (PITT) 95 $843,000

Stats and salary info from Baseball-Reference.com.

Cubs Spend $30 Million on a Time Bomb

2009-01-05T22:48:00.002-06:00

I set out to create a timeline of Milton Bradley's reckless and erratic behavior before realizing that the Sun-Times Web site had already done it for me.

One item left off the S-T list was Bradley's three-day visit to the Cuyahoga Falls, Ohio jail in December, 2004. That stemmed from an altercation with a policewoman at a traffic stop. Bradley also pleaded guilty to a misdemeanor disorderly conduct charge--he had been arrested for yelling at another police officer--for which he received a $175 fine and suspended jail sentence.

Tonight on David Kaplan's Sports Central show on WGN Radio, a caller said he was thrilled with the Bradley signing because it would bring a much needed "attitude" to the Cub clubhouse.

Regardless of the man's physical gifts and good-looking stats, I can't imagine the clubhouse that would actually be better because of what Bradley would bring to it.

If Bradley struggles and by some miracle the Wrigley Field bleacher creatures don't get on him, the Chicago press will surely push the button that sets him off.

I give it until mid-May before most of us are regretting the deal the Cubs signed on Monday.

DeRosa's Bat is Miles Better Than His Replacement's

2009-01-03T00:03:00.002-06:00

All things considered, I was more enthusiastic about the Cubs' signing of Aaron Miles when I thought he would be replacing Ronny Cedeno as a spare infielder than when I think of him as a replacement for Mark DeRosa.

Aaron Miles (643 Major League games)
.329 OBP / .364 SLG / 693 OPS / 77 OPS+ / 4.1 Runs Created per Game

Ronny Cedeno (329 games)
.289 OBP / .350 SLG / 639 OPS / 62 OPS+ / 3.2 Runs Created per Game

Mark DeRosa (893 games)
.348 OBP / .422 SLG / 780 OPS / 97 OPS+ / 5.2 Runs Created per Game

It has been pointed out that last year DeRosa set career highs for HR (21 vs. previous high of 13), RBI (87 vs. previous high of 74), OBP (.376 vs. previous high of 371), and OPS (857 vs. previous high of 813). It is also true that as DeRo closes in on his 34th birthday, it's likely he will see some regression from those best-ever numbers. But '08 also saw Miles set career highs in several categories, including the ever important on-base percentage, where Miles's .355 mark was well above his previous career best of .329.

Ironically, .329 is also the lifetime on-base percentage of the guy Miles may replace as Cubs leadoff man—Alfonso Soriano.

Obituaries for Former Cubs and a Winning Streak

2008-12-30T21:51:00.006-06:00

I was on the death watch earlier today with a post at The Cub Reporter bidding adieu to former Cubs who passed in 2008.

On a lighter note, here is a link to the latest information on the NHL's Winter Classic scheduled for New Year's Day at Wrigley. The article includes a much niftier video than the dreary local news footage I linked to, week before last.

It turns out the Blackhawks won't be in a position to tie the Red Wings for first place in the NHL Central when the clubs play on Thursday, since the Hawks got whitewashed and saw their team record, nine-game winning streak end tonight in Detroit.

Tall Tales: Arcane Cubs List Of The Week

2008-12-26T22:43:00.003-06:00

On Friday night, 6-foot-10 free agent pitcher Randy Johnson signed a one-year deal with the Giants for a reported $8 million plus bonuses.

At various points this off-season, the 45-year-old Johnson, who went 11-10, 3.91 for the D-Backs in '08, was said to be a possible target for the Cubs. But Johnson was born in northern California and according to the Giants official Web sit e, "was interested in San Francisco from the outset of free agency..."

Apart from missing out on a possible upgrade over current #5 starter, Jason Marquis, who the Cubs are said to be shopping, by not signing Johnson, the Cubs also missed out on acquiring the man who would have been the tallest player in Cubs history.

In other words, don't worry, Bob Scanlan--your niche is safe.

The 10 tallest players in Cubs history, according to Baseball-Reference.com:

Bob Scanlan, 6'8"
Sean Marshall 6'7"
Jerry Spradlin 6'7"
Dave Otto 6'7"
Dennis Rasumussen 6'7"
Rick Sutcliffe 6'7"
Jay Baller 6'7"
Tim Stoddard 6'7"
Rich Bordi 6'7"
Steve Hamilton 6'7"

Six Cubs stood 6-foot-6, including Lee Smith and also Dave Kingman, who, in terms of anti-social personality, may stand above all other players in Cubs history.

Note to MLB Owners: You've Really Let Sammy Down

2008-12-26T10:08:00.002-06:00

"I still don't have an offer, and I shouldn't be looking for offers out there. Any team who wants to sign me should have the initiative and make an offer."

--Former boombox owner and alleged steroid abuser Sammy Sosa

Here Come the Hawks! (New Field to Follow?)

2008-12-19T12:50:00.005-06:00

The considerable excitement surrounding the Blackhawks' New Year's Day game at Wrigley Field against the Red Wings is quite at odds with this lackluster video of the construction of the rink, but it's the only rink-under-construction-on-Major-League-Baseball-field video I have come across lately, so perhaps it will hold your interest. (Last night's snow couldn't have made the process any easier.)

There's anther aspect of this story which I hadn't heard about until reading a story earlier this week in the Sun-Times. It's captured in this quote from Crane Kenney of the Cubs:

''It's in our budget to replace the entire playing field after this game,'' Kenney said.

I wonder what Roger Bossard is doing this spring.

The Passing of Dave Smith, the Ascension of Ryne Sandberg

2008-12-17T20:41:00.006-06:00

• Reliever Dave Smith, who was an Astro for 11 years and saved 199 games in a Houston uniform before signing with the Cubs as a free agent before the 1991 season, died Wednesday of a heart attack at age 53.

Smith, second on the Astros' all-time saves list behind Billy Wagner, was a two-time All Star for Houston, but he was mostly awful for the Cubs. He went 0-6, 4.95 in 46 games in 1991 and '92. Smith pitched his final game for the Cubs and his final game as a big leaguer on June 8, 1992.

• Rob Neyer turns his attention to the almost Cub, Jake Peavy, asking to what extent Peavy's outstanding numbers are the result of his pitching in the hitters' graveyard known as Petco Field.

Is Peavy going to post the same ERAs with some other team as he has with the Padres? No, he's not. Not consistently, anyway. But unless his employers are expecting that, they shouldn't be at all disappointed. If you adjust Peavy's ERA over the past five seasons to account for his home ballpark -- granted, in something of a crude fashion -- he still winds up seventh best in the majors, right between Roy Oswalt and Carlos Zambrano. Is there any team that wouldn't be thrilled with any of those three?

• Ryne Sandberg will manage the Cubs' Double-A team at Tennessee in 2009, a promotion from Class-A Peoria, where Sandberg over the last two seasons, Sandberg led the Chiefs to a 131-146-1 record.

• Finally, an item about a billionaire MLB owner who finds himself in a non-baseball financial mess so awful, it seems inevitable it will affect the operation of the billionaire's team, and—here's the good news—the team isn't the Chicago Cubs.

Tough Times for Giant Inflatable Chickens

2008-12-12T13:11:00.007-06:00

In the New York Times, Michael Schmidt writes that "a short cab ride from the lavish suites of the Bellagio hotel (in Las Vegas), where major league baseball executives and agents discussed multimillion-dollar contracts for players...this week," minor league baseball officials were running a big job fair and trade show.

Given the dismal economy, team officials in attendance shared the common goal of looking for ways to save money, with a number of clubs opting to do things like re-use old uniforms or press team logos onto jerseys instead of having them individually stitched. (Said to cut uni costs by 1/3 to 1/2!). Also mentioned: cutbacks on inflatable mascots and other forms of in-game entertainment.

Teams are looking beyond uniforms for savings. The Round Rock Express, the Houston Astros’ Class AAA affiliate, has often bought new in-game entertainment features for fans from one season to the next. Next season, however, the team plans to run the same video entertainment on the outfield screen between innings.

"It will be the same cap shuffle video instead of changing the whole thing, like we’ve done in years past,” said Clint Musslewhite, the team’s director for ballpark entertainment. “We are not going to have them redo it. We’re going to strategically change our entertainment; the number of inflatable things we’ll rent will decrease.”

All I know is, if the Kane County Cougars cut ties with Myron Noodleman, they're going to hear about it from me.

Boras Likes the Way Cubs Do Business

2008-12-10T23:16:00.003-06:00

While they continue to dance around possible deals for players ranging from Jake Peavy and Milton Bradley to backup catcher Paul Bako, the Cubs have yet to make a player move this week in Las Vegas. One thing they have accomplished, however, is securing the admiration of superagent Scott Boras.

According to (Boras), the Cubs have proved they are recession-proof in the way they have gone about their business despite significant roadblocks.

"You have a club where the parent has filed for bankruptcy, and the baseball team is operating very well and they're out there offering multi-million-dollar contracts to players and signing them," ...Boras said. "We're our own industry, and the Cubs are the best example. You see something in bankruptcy and you see a subsidiary that's very successful and kind of operates independent of its parent."

It's a Fact: We're All Awash in Cubs Trade Rumors

2008-12-10T21:51:00.008-06:00

Inspired by one of the Web's hardest-working bloggers and one of its most popular sports blogs, as well as the non-events of the past few days, I'm thinking about baling on this blog and creating a new one. I'm going to call it Rumors of MLB Trade Rumors (RMLBTR).

Here's a sample post:

An RMLBTR source indicates that MLB Trade Rumors is about to post a rumor of the Cubs' interest in acquiring San Diego's Jake Peavy. MLB Trade Rumors would neither confirm nor deny the rumor of the rumor posting, saying simply that it's not the site's habit to respond to a rumor about a possible rumor until it's an actual rumor, in which case the plausibility of the rumor will speak for itself.

You get the idea.

Cubs Winter Meetings Report: Not on Tuesday

2008-12-09T19:38:00.003-06:00

As I sit down to write this, Jake Peavy, Randy Johnson, Milton Bradley, Bobby Abreu and Raul Ibanez are not Chicago Cubs.

Mark DeRosa is not a Philadelphia Phillie.

Felix Pie is not a Baltimore Oriole.

Ronny Cedeno, Jason Marquis, Kevin Hart, Michael Wuertz, Angel Guzman and Sean Marshall are not San Diego Padres.

Kerry Wood is not a Cleveland Indian.

And though it falls outside the normal purview of this blog, I am proud to point out that I did not vote to keep the State of Illinois' Chief Narcissist and Sociopath in office the last time he ran.

Direct from Sin City: Let the Heightened, Cub Fan Expectations Begin

2008-12-08T23:27:00.008-06:00

Something coming out of the Winter Meetings in Las Vegas which you can ponder while you wait for the Cubs to land Jake Peavy:

As reported by the New York Times, Vegas oddsmakers currently have the Cubs and Red Sox as co-favorites to reach the 2009 World Series at 5-to-1 odds.

The lovable Cubs, who have not won a World Series since 1908, have the most bets...placed on them by MGM Mirage Properties, which could partly explain why they are tied with the Red Sox for the best odds. (MGM Mirage's Jay) Rood said the Cubs were routinely wagered on more than any other baseball team, followed by the Red Sox and the Yankees.

Santo to Make Baseball Hall of Fame Today?

2008-12-08T06:38:00.009-06:00

Update to this post: Santo didn't make it. He needed 48 votes from the Veterans Committee and only got 39. Nine lousy votes short. Santo finished first among those players whose careers began in 1943 or later—Jim Kaat was next with 38 votes—but that can't be any consolation.

(You can learn the details of the Hall of Fame's byzantine process for voting in the veterans right here.)

Santo will next be eligible for consideration in two years.

In Monday's Chicago Tribune—the World's Greatest Almost Bankrupt Newspaper—Phil Rogers explains the long, tortured path of Ron Santo's Baseball Hall of Fame candidacy. At noon Central Time today, the Hall will announce whether or not Santo has finally, finally, finally made the cut.

Here's how the HOF Web site summarizes #10's career:

Ron Santo was known both for his hitting and fielding prowess. He hit .277 with 365 doubles, 67 triples, 342 home runs, 1,331 RBIs and 1,138 runs in 2,243 games despite playing much of his career in an era when scoring was suppressed. The nine-time All-Star was an excellent defensive third baseman who earned five consecutive Gold Glove Awards (1964-68). Santo had 11 seasons of 20 or more home runs, including four straight of 30 or more. He had eight 90-plus RBI seasons, including four seasons with more than 100 and he had 12 seasons with 20 or more doubles.

The Hall of Fame Web site will carry the news of the voting results live at noon Central Time. I assume Santo will be watching it, but I wouldn't blame him if he took a pass and just waited for the yea or nay phone call.

Maddux to Call It a Career

2008-12-06T00:07:00.005-06:00

On Monday, Greg Maddux will officially close the book on his great career, having accomplished virtually everything he could have hoped to when he made his MLB debut as a skinny, 20-year-old pinch-runner for the Cubs 22 years ago.

He won 4 Cy Young Awards, was named to 8 All-Star Games, earned 18 Gold Gloves, and won 355 games (8th on the all-time list). He also appeared in 20 NL Playoff series and 3 World Series.

One thing he didn't accomplish: outlasting the teammate who started the game in which Maddux made his first appearance for the Cubs back in 1986—Jamie Moyer.

Cubs Info You've Probably Already Heard, But in a Splashy Video Form

2008-12-04T22:57:00.005-06:00

No jaw-dropping news here in ESPN's Hot Stove Report on the NL Central, but Peter Gammons assures that the Cubs are still actively pursuing Jake Peavy and then repeats what everyone, including Jim Hendry, has been saying: the team needs a lefthanded hitter.

One Man's Washed Up Reliever is Another Man's $2.75MM Prize

2008-12-03T20:43:00.006-06:00

Tonight the Giants announced the signing of now former Cub and onetime San Francisco farmhand Bob Howry to a one-year/$2.75 million deal. The 35-year-old Howry, who was traded out of the Giants organization as part of the infamous "White Flag" trade between the White Sox and San Francisco back in 1997, gave the Cubs three seasons, including 234 games and 228 2/3 IP, during which he went 17-17, 3.90 with 14 saves, 12 blown saves, and 58 holds. I guess that's a lot of holds. I'm not sure. It is too silly a stat for me to do any investigating.

San Francisco Chronicle writer Henry Schulman had this to say about the deal:

Howry had terrible numbers last season with the Cubs. His ERA was 5.35 and opponents hit .309 against him with a .543 slugging percentage and .881 OPS. On the plus side, he walked only 13 batters and struck out 59 in 70 2/3 innings.
I just got off the phone with Ron Schueler, a special assistant to Sabean who, as GM of the White Sox, (engineered) the 1997 "White Flag" trade. Schueler saw Howry pitch last season and believes part of the problem was a bad start to the season and overuse by manager Lou Piniella, particularly in the number of times Howry warmed up in the bullpen without pitching.
"His numbers weren't where they were before, but the stuff was still good. The velocity was still there," Schueler said.

(Note: according to FanGraphs, Howry threw significantly fewer fastballs last year than in his previous two season with the Cubs—about 75% fastballs in '08 vs. 83% in '06 and and 86% in '07. Also, his velocity fell from 92.8 mph in '06 to 92.3 in '07 and 91.2 mph last season.)

Howry had his own take on the 2008 season, in which he was tagged for 13 HR in just 70 2/3 IP—a none too impressive 1.66 HR/9, far worse numbers than Howry has ever put together in a complete season.

"I struggled with being consistent with my mechanics," Howry said. "It's something I fought all year. I struggled to find that smooth place where it's consistent all the time. It messed with my location. It's a matter of ironing out some kinks."

Whatever the root cause of the veteran's problems last year—he had a 6.93 ERA and a 1000 OPS Against in 27 appearances following the All-Star game—I'm glad the $2.75 million that Howry will earn in 2009 are coming out of the Giants' wallet and not the Cubs'.

Additional stats from Baseball-Reference.com.

Goodbye to Plesac; Hello Again to 1060west (Sort Of), Harry Caray, and Ed Sherman

2008-12-02T23:11:00.008-06:00

The author of the once outstanding, now defunct Cubs blog, 1060west, has started a new blog called waxpaperbeercup. It was a wpbc Twitter post that led me to learn three things:

Former Cub Dan Plesac, who I thought did a passable job of studio analysis for Comcast and seemed like a candidate to step permanently into the Cub announcers booth if/when Bob Brenly gets his next managing gig, is leaving the local airwaves for a job at the new MLB television network.

Harry Caray, whose appeal as a Chicago personality and pitchman has been dulled not one bit by the inconvenience of his passing, is featured in the audio track of a new NBC spot promoting the New Year's Day Blackhawks/Red Wings game at Wrigley Field. (To see the commercial, go here and enter "Wrigley Field" in the search field.)

And thirdly, Ed Sherman, who formerly covered golf and the sports media beat for the Tribune, is now blogging on behalf of Crain's Chicago Business.

In summary:

I am pleased by the returns of the one-time author of 1060west and Ed Sherman, I am ambivalent about seeing Dan Plesac leave, and as for Harry, I feel like he has never really left.

Dempster Dollars: Arcane Cubs List of the Week

2008-11-21T22:32:00.005-06:00

Less than 12 months ago, along with most Cubs fans, I could think of two or three dozen things I was more excited to see than Ryan Dempster's return to the starting rotation in 2008. After a season in which he went 17-6, had a career best 2.96 ERA, earned a trip to the All-Star Game, merited the Game One start in the NLDS, and finished 6th in Cy Young balloting, Dempster not only had the last laugh, but also earned the contract of a lifetime as he entered free agency.

Here, by way of baseball-reference.com and Cot's Baseball Contracts, is Dempster's Major League salary history, commencing with his debut as a 22-year-old Florida Marlin and telescoping forward to 2012, the final year of the 4-year/$52MM contract he signed earlier this week with the Cubs.

Year	Team	Salary
1999	Marlins	$202,000
2000	Marlins	268,000
2001	Marlins	400,000
2002	Marlins	2,475,000
2003	Reds	3,250,000
2004	Cubs	300,000
2005	Cubs	2,000,000
2006	Cubs	4,333,333
2007	Cubs	5,333,333
2008	Cubs	7,333,333
2009	Cubs	8,000,000
2010	Cubs	12,500,000
2011	Cubs	13,500,000
2012	Cubs	14,000,000*

*Player option

Did Cubs Trade for Their Own Version of Dan Kolb?

2008-11-17T22:27:00.012-06:00

Joe Sheehan of Baseball Prospectus is no fan of the Cubs' acquisition of Marlins closer Kevin Gregg last week.

In a piece posted Sunday at BP, Sheehan argues that the newest Cub is currently no better than the team's third- or fourth-best right-handed reliever, which is pretty sad given that he was acquired at the cost of the third-ranked prospect in the entire Cubs system, young Jose Ceda, "who at worst will probably be better than Gregg starting in 2010."

Continues Sheehan...

This deal smells like the Braves' acquisition of Dan Kolb in 2005, a team getting a pitcher whose save total belies the fact that he's just not nearly as good as that statistic, and having a front-row seat for the end of his career.

Kolb, you may recall, was a star in the Brewer bullpen for two years, 2003 and 2004, following four, mostly undistinguished years with the Rangers. In '03 and '04, Kolb saved a whole big bunch of games for Milwaukee (60, to be exact), had some dandy ERAs (1.96 and 2.98), and even made an All-Star appearance. He was traded to the Braves following the '04 season to replace John Smoltz in the Atlanta pen and didn't provide much relief at all, going 3-8, 5.93. He did save 11 games in 2005, but he blew 7 save opportunities, which was the same number he had squandered while accumulating those 60 saves in his two years in Milwaukee.

Kolb was traded back to the Brewers following the '05 season but was ineffective in 2006, as he was for the Pirates in 2007. He tried and failed to make the Red Sox roster coming out of Spring Training last season and is currently a free agent.

For the sake of comparison, Gregg saved 61 games for the Marlins the past two seasons with a 3.48 ERA, following four mostly undistinguished years with the Angels.

If the notion of Gregg as Kolb isn't enough to dampen your enthusiasm for last week's trade—assuming you had any—Sheehan goes on to argue that looking forward, he would rather have Kerry Wood's next three seasons than Francisco Rodriguez's...

...without even considering the difference in the money they'll make. Wood, having been through the surgeries and the comebacks and having adapted quite well to relief pitching, seems ready to be a high-strikeout, great-peripherals high-leverage reliever in his thirties, and because he's new to the role and hasn't pitched very much of late, I'd rather take a chance on him than on Rodriguez, whose command problems scare the heck out of me.
The biggest difference between the two (in 2008 was) their walk rates. Wood went to the bullpen and pounded the strike zone. Rodriguez hasn't been that guy in a few years, and is getting worse instead of better. There's a league gap here that favors Rodriguez, but that's in the past; I'm signing the guy's future, and I'd rather pay for Wood's future than Rodriguez's.

It Will Take Three to Tango in Possible Cubs Deal for Peavy

2008-11-15T10:34:00.004-06:00

The Braves have backed out of further discussions with the Padres regarding a possible trade for Jake Peavy, leaving only the Cubs and Dodgers among the suitors. But even if the Dodgers, whose primary focus seems to be re-signing Manny Ramirez, withdraw from the trade talks, the Cubs are going to need help in acquiring the former Cy Young Award winner.

From Friday's San Diego Union-Tribune:

...having failed to transact business with the Braves, (Padres GM Kevin) Towers continues to characterize Peavy's top preferences as problematic: the Chicago Cubs being inadequately stocked with trade material and the Los Angeles Dodgers being preoccupied with other priorities.
“Chicago didn't give us any deadline,” Towers said. “I imagine we'll continue to talk to them, but it's going to definitely take a third team to get something done there.

The Cubs were short of "trade material," particularly the young pitchers the Padres want, before this week's deal that sent Jose Ceda to the Marlins for Kevin Gregg. So if it was essential to get a third team involved in a possible swap for Peavy, it's obviously even more incumbent now.

So Long, Kerry Wood

2008-11-14T12:54:00.004-06:00

Kerry Wood, whose place in Cub history was assured for time immemorial the moment his 20-strikeout game ended in early May, 1998, is now just that—history. At least, in terms of his time in Cubbie blue. That was implied by the Cubs' acquisition of the Marlins' Kevin Gregg on Thursday and then confirmed by Cubs GM Jim Hendry. As quoted by Paul Sullivan in the Tribune:

"Honestly, we feel for his own good, and for the good of him and his family, there is going to be a longer and more lucrative deal somewhere else than there would be here now," Hendry said. "And it would be unfair to keep it dangling for another month or so and say, 'Let's see where the ownership situation is going, let's see what happens if we don't do this, we may do that.'

"He has been such a good citizen the last couple of years and always has come back to us for less money, and the chance to make up the difference he left on the table, taking the ball through thick and thin. And I really feel like the right thing to do for him and his family is don't put him in a situation where he'd have to do that again."

To land Gregg, the Cubs shipped 6-foot-4, 275-pound, 100 mph-throwin' relief prospect Jose Ceda to the Marlins.

From the Miami Herald:

The Marlins have been actively shopping Gregg, who stands to receive more than $4 million next season through salary arbitration. Matt Lindstrom is the current frontrunner to take over the closer's role next season.
Gregg, who has been the Marlins' closer the past two seasons, totaled 61 saves for the Marlins in 2007 and '08. But his nine blown saves last season was tied for most in the majors, and Gregg lost his ninth-inning role in September after missing time with patella tendinitis in his left knee.

He had surgery on the knee nearly three weeks ago and is expected to be ready for spring training.

Also from the Herald, regarding the 21-year-old Ceda, who came to the Cubs organization in the 2006 deal that sent Todd Walker to the Padres and has 227 strikeouts in 180 2/3 minor league innings:

Ceda was considered to have one of the best arms in the Cubs organization. Scouting reports say that while his change-up needs work, he throws a hard slider and a fastball that approaches 100 miles per hour. He has averaged more than 11 strikeouts per nine innings during his three seasons in the minors.
But his size...has raised eyebrows. His minor-league teammates fined him $10 in a kangaroo court for asking a young boy at Roger Dean Stadium in Jupiter to buy him ice cream when Daytona played there last summer.

I'm going to take more time than I have right now to say goodbye to Kerry Wood. He always struck me as a first-class guy and it saddens me to think that if the Cubs finally get to the World Series next year or anytime soon, it will be without Kerry Wood there to enjoy it.

Will Piniella Follow Soto into Winners Circle?

2008-11-12T08:54:00.005-06:00

Update: Shows what I know.

The National League Manager of the Year will be announced today at noon with Our Man Lou among the obvious frontrunners. Piniella won AL MOY honors twice while in Seattle ('95 and '01).

My money, however, is on Charlie Manuel. The Phillies manager finished second in last year's balloting to Bob Melvin of Arizona, and though balloting is completed before the post-season begins and thus, the Phils' World Series success won't work in Manuel's favor, I see him as more of a sentimental favorite than the crusty Piniella.

What's more, though expectations were high in Philadelphia this season, the Cubs seemed to be a consensus choice as best team in the NL at the beginning of the campaign, which could have left voters to conclude that Piniella simply won a division crown with a team that absolutely should have won a division crown, nothing more, nothing less.

Writing at mlb. com, Jim Maloney mentions Joe Torre as a third strong contender, but it's hard for me to see the baseball writers attributing the Dodgers' success to anyone other than that home run-hitting leftfielder with the long hair and even longer baseball pants.

Happy Monday, Geo Soto and Scott Eyre

2008-11-10T21:56:00.004-06:00

Geovany Soto's ascension to National League Rookie of the Year on Monday was virtually uncontested, with the Cubs catcher garnering all but one of the 32 possible first-place votes. (The Reds' Joey Votto got the other one.) Not since Albert Pujols collected all 32 first-place votes in winning the '01 ROY award had a National League player come so close to running the table. Ironically, Tampa Bay's Evan Longoria, coronated Monday as A.L. Rookie of the Year, was also a unanimous first-place pick.

Soto's HR and RBI numbers—23 and 86, respectively—were the highest for a Cubs rookie since Billy Williams had 25 HR and 86 RBI in 1961, when Williams became the first Cub to win rookie honors. (The award didn't exist until 1947.)

As he has often done this season, Soto credited teammate Henry Blanco for aiding his maturation as a catcher and a big leaguer, saying that Blanco was...

"in my corner, like a big brother. I owe him a lot of my success. It was huge having him on my side."

The Cubs bought out Blanco's option for $300,000 at the end of October, though the team is expected to re-sign him. Gordon Wittenmyer of the Sun-Times has even alluded to the possibility that the Cubs and Blanco might already have had a "handshake agreement" in place regarding a new deal.

Speaking of new deals, former Cub Scott Eyre signed a one-year, $2MM contract extension with the World Series champion Phillies on Monday.

After being waived by the Cubs and hooking up with the Phils on August 7th, the 36-year-old Eyre pitched in 19 games, going 3-0, 1.88. He appeared in five post-season games for the Phillies this year, allowing one run and three hits in three innings.

A Break in the Recession

2008-10-24T09:07:00.003-05:00

Alongside the play-by-play of the ongoing global economic calamity, Friday's Wall Street Journal doles out attention to three former Cubs.

In a sidebar on the evolution of baseball bling, former Cub pitchers Turk Wendell and Jerome Williams are mentioned.

Of Wendell, the Journal says...

This rugged individualist...wore a necklace made of the teeth of things he'd killed while hunting. While he didn't set a trend...he contributed to a gradual evolution away from jewelry-store neckwear.

As for Williams...

The native Hawaiian...resurrected the puka-shell necklace more often seen on hippies and surfers. He helped clear the way for macho ballplayers to wear neckpieces that convey environmental consciousness rather than just a big salary.

(Funny—I always assumed Williams wore the shells because he thought they looked cool.)

Finally, in the paper's coverage of the House of Representatives' deboning of former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, there is this:

Rep. John Yarmuth, Democrat of Kentucky, hit Greenspan close to home, calling the avid baseball fan one of "three Bill Buckners." That was a reference to the Boston Red Sox' first baseman whose flubbed handling of a routine grounder cost his team the 1986 World Series. Former Treasury Secretary John Snow and [SEC Chairman Christopher] Cox, who sat alongside Mr. Greenspan, also got tagged with that comparison.

With blame being launched at Greenspan from every direction and the former Chairman admitting his fingerprints were all over the current fiscal mess, the hearing sounds like it was quite dramatic, certainly more so than any of the Cubs' recent playoff defeats to the Dodgers.

Too bad that Buckner's name had to be dragged into the proceedings simply so a politician—a politican, for God's sake!!!—could make himself sound clever.

(Note to Rep. Yarmuth: the Buckner play happened 22 years ago. A Rafael Furcal reference would have been far less cliché and much more topical.)

I Nominate Willie Randolph to be the Next Brewers Manager

2008-10-24T00:18:00.003-05:00

Just to prove that I still remember how to do this blogging thing, I have written a post at The Cub Reporter concerning the possibility expressed by Paul Sullivan that: a.) Cubs color man Bob Brenly may become the new manager of the Milwaukee Brewers in the next week, and, b.) that Diamondbacks color man and former Cub Mark Grace might get Brenly's job in the booth.

I liked Grace as a Cub, I have never liked him as an ex-Cub, and I don't think he is much of an announcer.

I hope Brenly and his knowledge of Cubs personnel stays right where it is, and I hope that Grace stays in Arizona or anywhere not named Wrigley Field.

And Now, I'd Like To Make a Retroactive Prediction About Chicago Sports

2008-10-16T12:14:00.009-05:00

One of the hazards of getting fat and lazy and not keeping up with my blogging:

I had a prediction all cooked up which has come to pass, and now I don't get to take credit for it. Damn!

Anyway, I SWEAR TO GOD that, while watching the Blackhawks/Nashville game the other night—the Hawks' home opener; a game they wound up losing in a shootout—I had a premonition that the team was going to can coach Denis Savard and that in the next few days, Chicago sports fans would all be treated to the sight of John McDonough's sad moon face in front of the cameras and microphones, as he talked about how integral a part of the organization Savard was/is and, you know, "This is just a move we had to make at this time, as much as it pains me."

NOW IT HAS HAPPENED! At least, the firing part has happened. Moonface's press conference will be at 4:30 Thursday afternoon.

I want to be in line for some predictive credit, so listen for the following during McDonough's announcement:

References to Denis Savard's "loyalty" and "work ethic"
"slow start"
"players have been underperforming"
"a change was necessary"
"one of the hardest things I've ever had to do in sports" (firing Savvy, that is)

By the way, Savard's replacement, former St. Louis Blues and Colorado Avalanche coach Joel Quenneville, has a lifetime record of 438-283-118 in 11 NHL seasons, including a 44-31-7 mark last year with Colorado. He was fired this past May over "a difference in hockey philosophy" with Avs GM Francois Giguere, according to the Denver Post. Finally, Quenneville, who was arrested last month on suspicion of DUI, has never won a Stanley Cup, which automatically makes him a perfect fit for the Blackhawks.

And no, I'm not writing this much about hockey because I can't bring myself to think about the Cubs.

"Losing is a Result, Choking is a Process"

2008-10-13T09:02:00.004-05:00

Well-stated analysis of our heroes' fall by Chris Jaffe at The Hardball Times, from which the above headline was lifted.

Here's the moral of his story:

...how can you have any faith in this bunch in the postseason? They've had two consecutive Octobers when they wet their pants every time they stood on the field. The onus is on them to prove they have the mental fortitude to make their physical gifts worth a damn.

By the way, I expect to get back to more of my regular writing schedule this week. After watching the Bears wither yesterday afternoon, I have concluded that I will find no salvation in following any other Chicago sports team. Therefore, I might as well come to grips with my Cubs grief and get back to work.

Cubs Futility is a Laughing Matter

2008-10-10T12:24:00.004-05:00

Post-season washouts or not, the Cubs remain first in the hearts of their fans and joke-writers everywhere. (See Bill Murray cameo about two-thirds of the way through the video, from Thursday night's special Saturday Night Live.)

Whew! Ron Santo Did Not Spontaneously Combust After Cubs' Loss

2008-10-09T09:29:00.004-05:00

The Tribune's Fred Mitchell has proof.

Update: My post several days ago about which Cub players were at the ends of their contracts was, well, almost completely wrong. Considering that my wife now has responsibility for balancing the family checkbook and managing our finances and does a far better job of it than I ever did, I should know better than to try to evaluate or understand Major League player contracts.

You'll find an authoritative summary of the contract status of the current Cub players, authored by The Cub Reporter's inestimable Arizona Phil, right here.

I Just Checked and Yeah, the Cubs Stunk

2008-10-07T12:35:00.011-05:00

The numbers never lie. Well, actually they lie with alarming frequency, only this time they're speaking the painful truth.

Following a season in which many of us marveled at how the Cubs ranked at or near the top in virtually every telling statistical category, we saw a post-season in which the numbers tell us, accurately, that the Cubs were putrid.

Shown are the cumulative offensive stats for the four League Championship series. Apart from the Cubs' sickening line, one thing I notice right off is how poorly the Brewers performed at the plate. Lots of strikeouts, few walks. Ironically, I tuned in to WTMJ in Milwaukee during the Brewers' Game 4 defeat to the Phils and the announcer (not Uecker) was lamenting those very facts.

That said, at least the Brewers, like the Angels and (ugh!) the White Sox, pulled themselves together long enough to win a game in the series and give their fans, however briefly, some hope that a miracle might be in the offing.
(Stats from Baseball-Reference.com)

Yes, It Was a Failure

2008-10-05T00:46:00.003-05:00

That's tonight's summary of the 2008 season. More to follow when I'm not as tired and not as angry.

Unbelievable.

Simply, utterly, absolutely unbelievable.

Nice Knowing Ya (?): Arcane Cubs List of the Week

2008-10-03T23:41:00.004-05:00

A post-season performance like the Cubs' is enough to inspire even level-headed fans to call for wholesale personnel changes before Spring Training 2009. But the fact is that Lee, Zambrano, Ramirez, Soriano et al, are making too much money and locked into too-long contracts to afford Cubs GM Jim Hendry much decision-making flexibility (as if he would consider moving any of the aforementioned anyway).

That said, the game on Saturday or Sunday or whenever the Cubs decide to end this historic choke job could well mark the final appearance in a Chicago uniform for some or all of the following players whose contracts are expiring:

Jim Edmonds (2-for-7 with 1 double, 1 RBI in NLDS)
Ryan Dempster (0-1, 7.71)
Kerry Wood (1 R, 2 H, but 0 ER in 1 IP)
Bob Howry (has not played)
Henry Blanco (has not played)
Chad Gaudin (ineligible)
Reed Johnson (has not played)
Daryle Ward (0-for-2)
Neal Cotts (0 ER in .2 IP)

(Contract information from Cot's Baseball Contracts)

It's Not Gonna Happen

2008-10-02T22:57:00.003-05:00

The 97-win season is ancient history, friends. We're back where we belong—the Official Laughingstock of Major League Baseball.

The closest I can come to finding some point of interest in this series is trying to predict which missed opportunity or failed play will become the signature moment; the '08 version of the Bartman ball or the Alex Gonzalez error from Game 6 in 2003.

My nominee right now is Mark DeRosa's flub on what should have been a double-play ball in the 2nd inning tonight, when the Dodgers scored five runs, effectively locking up the game and, most likely, the series. That would be a shame, since DeRosa had a career season and, maybe along with Edmonds, has stood out among the Cub hitters in this series because he isn't flailing away, at-bat after at-bat, as though he were swatting at butterflies.

I'm pointing at the DeRosa play and yet, I think the Cubs lost tonight's game when it was still scoreless and Alfonso Soriano was standing at second base with nobody out in the bottom of the first inning. Ryan Theriot was batting, there seemed to be tension and expectation in the Wrigley Field air surrounding the possibility that the Cubs could jump out to the early lead and wipe away the memory of last night's embarrassment...and Theriot wet the bed. Then Lee and Ramirez did likewise, and the game remained scoreless until the Dodgers came to bat in the second, and then the circus really began.

Lee, Ramirez, Soriano, Fukudome (!)—these guys should be humiliated. I'm sure they are.

I hope this ends Saturday.

That Will Be An Interesting Debate Thursday Night

2008-10-01T22:28:00.010-05:00

I sure didn't think this would happen.

Then I saw Ryan Dempster huffing and puffing in between pitches as if it took all of the resolve and concentration he could muster to make a good pitch (even though he was leading 2-0 at the time).

Then the good pitches got fewer and farther between as the number of walks issued to Dodger batters climbed.

And then came the grand slam gopher ball. And then the Cubs really settled into their offensive feebleness. And then I turned the channel in search of previews of tomorrow night's Vice Presidential Debate, which I am planning to watch instead of Game Two, because I don't expect Carlos Zambrano to be the guy who will get us back on track so the Cubs can head out to L.A. with the series tied, and I just can't handle that much more disappointment.

I sure didn't think this would happen.

You'll find a more thoughtful, detailed analysis of tonight's humiliation at The Cub Reporter. Transmission proved to me what a strong stomach he has by recounting all of the grisly details.

My stomach isn't strong enough to even allow me to read the recounting of all of the grisly details.

Update: The Cubs, who were given a 52% likelihood of winning this first-round series yesterday, according to The Hardball Times' statistical analysis, are now given a 32.8% likelihood of reaching the NLCS.

I figured you probably weren't already depressed enough this morning and so, decided to pass that on.

Pie is Playoff-Bound

2008-09-30T19:35:00.010-05:00

While the Cubs' NLDS roster won't be officially named until Wednesday morning, Paul Sullivan reports in the Tribune Tuesday night that Felix Pie will be on the roster and Micah Hoffpauir will not.

Given Mark DeRosa's balky calf, it's not hard to understand the Cubs' desire to have, in Paul Sullivan's words, a "late-inning defensive replacement...if DeRosa gets a start in the outfield." Pie, who hit .241 in 43 games for the Cubs this year, is a capable glove man with lots of speed; Hoffpauir, who hit .342 in 33 games for the Cubs this year, is a butcher in the outfield.

In other words, I buy Pie over Hoffpauir, but what I don't buy is the non-hitting pinch-hitter Daryle Ward over Hoffpauir.

Despite connecting for one of the season's most dramatic home runs, a three-run, ninth-inning rocket that lifted the Cubs past the Marlins in a game in mid-August, Ward had a horrible season. Among the 51 National League pinch hitters with at least 25 plate appearances this year, Ward was 29th in on-base percentage (.294), 31st in OPS (585), and a dismal 45th in batting average (8-for-55, .145).

To be fair, Hoffpauir didn't do much in his 14 pinch-hit plate appearances, registering just three singles and striking out seven times.

Still, even though it might mean having to cast a rookie into a do-or-die moment on baseball's most dramatic stage, the post-season, I would much rather see Hoffpauir called upon than Ward.

Note: according to Sullivan, Hoffpauir, catcher Koyie Hill, and relievers Michael Wuertz and Kevin Hart "will report to the Cubs' facility in Mesa, Ariz., to continue working out in case they are needed for the NL Championship Series when the Cubs can change the roster if necessary."

Measuring the Dodgers

2008-09-29T22:38:00.005-05:00

To help me decide how anxious to be about the Cubs' NLDS matchup with the Dodgers—the two teams' first post-season meeting ever—I compared the clubs' ranking in a number of hitting, pitching, and defensive categories, and frankly, the Cubbies come out looking pretty good.

Of course, when admiring the Cubs' clearly superior offensive stats, one has to acknowledge that Manny Ramirez only played in 53 games for the Dodgers, and the difference he made was enormous: L.A. scoring went from 4.17 runs/game, pre-Manny, to 4.70 r/g, post-Manny, a bump of almost 13%.

For a truly comprehensive look at the Cubs' NLDS opponents, I direct you to the observations of Jon Weisman, the proprietor of Dodger Thoughts, who offers an in-depth analysis of who did what this year among Joe Torre's crew. Among his points, Jon discounts the notion that Andre Ethier's wicked-hot bat was solely the result of having Ramirez hitting behind him (though the piece I posted at The Cub Reporter shows that Ethier's post-Manny numbers were genuinely eye-popping).

Weisman also points out that Derek Lowe, the Dodgers' NLDS Game One starter, who was stunning in September (0.59 ERA over 5 starts and 30 1/3 IP), was also pretty damn sharp in two early-season starts against the Cubs (1-0, 1.93 over 14 IP).

Weisman writes:

Whether this is a Dodger team that will perform any better than the May-June 2008 Dodgers, or for that matter the 1989-2007 Dodgers ... there's just no way of knowing. Several hopeful Dodger teams in the past 20 years have gone ever so gently into that bad night. The Dodgers somehow have to change that.

It starts with Lowe and Ramirez. Anyone can be a hero, but those two have been going so well for so long that they are poised to make an impact that Dodger fans haven't seen in a generation of postseasons...

Tony Jackson of the L.A. Daily News appeared on WGN Sports Central with David Kaplan tonight and talked a lot about the problems with the Dodger bullpen. His overall argument was that the team with the second best record in all of baseball (the Cubs) has to be substantially favored against the team with the worst record of all the teams in the playoff field (the Dodgers).

Looking back on what Jackson has had to write about the Dodgers lately, I came across his post yesterday on the "Inside the Dodgers" blog, featuring a funny, bittersweet recollection from Dodgers GM and former Cub front office guy Ned Colletti.

Ode to a Garbage Dump

2008-09-28T17:35:00.004-05:00

I'll have more thoughts in the next couple days on the Cubs/Dodgers series, which begins Wednesday. In the meantime...

One of the byproducts of Sunday's Major League action was the hasty goodbyes that Met fans had to bid to Shea Stadium following the Mets' 4-2 season-ending loss to the Marlins.

Sports editor Jay Schreiber of the New York Times (above left) offers a video tribute right here.

(Ron Santo, whose palpable hatred of the ballpark caused him to skip last week's Cubs/Mets series in New York, promised he would grit it out and show up at Shea for his radio responsibilities if the Mets wound up in the NLDS against the Cubs. Despite the fact that the Mets appeared to be a softer touch for the Cubs than the Dodgers will be, I can only imagine how happy Santo is that he won't have to live up to his promise.)

The Luck o' the Cubbish

2008-09-26T23:12:00.007-05:00

The Wall Street Journal took time out Friday from reporting on the end of life as we know it to explain why the Angels are baseball's luckiest team. Darren Everson points to three indicators: the performance of the team's hitters when there happen to be runners in scoring position, how many opposition baserunners have been stranded by Mike Scioscia's relievers, and how dramatically the Angels have outperformed their Pythagorean record— L.A. has won 12 more games than one would expect based on its run differential; the Rays are the next biggest overachievers at +6.

Above is a look at how the Cubs compare to the rest of the field of NL contenders. ("RISP" is team's batting average with runners in scoring position; "IRS" is percentage of inherited runners stranded; and "PYTH +/-" is the team's actual record vis a vis the projection based on runs scored and allowed.)

As you can see, the Cubs lead the way in both RISP and IRS, and are in the middle of the pack in terms of outperforming their expected record. I guess by the Journal's figuring, that would make them the NL's luckiest team.

As long as that good fortune holds out for another, oh, three weeks or so, I would think we could all live with being lucky.

Lou Says There's Hope for Five-Hit Hoffpauir

2008-09-26T06:34:00.004-05:00

Daryle Ward has started in 497 Major League games and has never had a five-hit game. (For that matter, Aramis Ramirez has started in 1,291 Major League games and has never had a five-hit game.)

But last night, in just his 11th Major League start, Micah Hoffpauir banged out five hits—two home runs, a double, and two singles—in the Cubs' 7-6 loss to the Mets.

Hoffpauir is in a fight with the 33-year-old Ward, among others, for one of the precious spots on the Cubs playoff roster. If this team was managed by veteran-loving Dusty Baker, we could be sure who would capture that spot, but the current Cubs manager is at least suggesting there's a possibility he would give the 28-year-old Hoffpauir the nod.

"You know, we're looking for a couple spots, we're looking for some offense," Cubs manager Lou Piniella said. "Put it this way, he'll be in the lineup [Friday] against Milwaukee..."
...The Cubs have three games remaining to finalize the playoff roster. The Cubs still don't know who they'll be playing, and Piniella said that could determine who he picks.
"We have to know who our opponent is first," Piniella said. "Hoffpauir's not hurting himself."

On the subject of hurting yourself relative to a post-season position...

Carlos Zambrano, who has been awful recently outside of his no-hit game against the Astros, has lost out to Ryan Dempster, who has been mostly brilliant this year at Wrigley Field, in a bid to win the starting assignment for Game 1 of the NLDS.

Shea Stadium: If You Can Stand It There, You Can Stand It Anywhere

2008-09-24T22:58:00.006-05:00

Earlier today, I wrote sort of a goodbye-Shea-Stadium-see-you-in-hell post at The Cub Reporter. Also this evening, the Tribune's Paul Sullivan offers a short history of Cub misery at Shea Stadium, invoking names like Turk Wendell and LaTroy Hawkins.

All of this grisly reminiscence was at odds with what wound up being a pretty satisfying Cub victory tonight. Carlos Zambrano (4 2/3 IP, 5 R, 4 BB, and one grand slam allowed to Carlos Delgado) pitched like a guy who should be grateful to get a starting turn in the playoffs, let alone the Game One assignment, but the Cub bullpen, despite some bumpy going, limited the home team to just one run over the last five innings. The Cub offense recovered from a 5-1 deficit and eventually seized a 6-5 lead. After the Mets tied the game in the eighth inning, then failed to capitalize on a golden scoring opportunity in the bottom of the ninth against Bob Howry, Derrek Lee drove home Ryan Theriot with the game-winner in the top of the tenth and Aramis Ramirez ripped a two-run homer to seal the 9-6 win.

In all, the Mets scored one run despite having a man on third with nobody out in each of the seventh, eighth, and ninth innings.

The Mets remain 1 1/2 games behind the Phillies in the NL East. The Brewers, who beat the Pirates behind C.C. Sabathia on Wednesday night, are now tied with the Mets for the Wild Card.

If the three teams end the season in a tie, the Mets and Phillies will play Monday in Philadelphia to determine the NL East winner. The losing team will then travel to Milwaukee to settle the Wild Card. And the Cubs will be watching all the while.

Cubs Success—It's Just Killing Me

2008-09-24T00:06:00.006-05:00

Here we are, on the threshold of the post-season with the best Cubs team of my lifetime, division champs assured of finishing with the league's best record, and I find myself struggling to fill a post. I think perhaps the problem is the unique state of things: it's late September, and I'm watching games without significant impact on the Cubs, not owing to the team' futility and early elimination from the pennant race, but because of the team's excellence and decisively won division crown.

I enjoyed this piece Tuesday by Patrick Sullivan at The Baseball Analysts. Sullivan is apparently a transplanted Chicagoan, and he writes what I would write about the Cubs...if I were a better writer.

Sometimes with a team as popular, marketable and seemingly omnipresent as the Cubs, minor successes can become overblown. As this phenomenon relates to the 2008 edition of the Cubs, it seems to have diminished their stature. Story after story about those lovable Cubs fans, the effusiveness emanating from Wrigley, and for one magical night from Miller Park, has overshadowed just how damn good this team is that Chicago has fielded this season.
They have scored more runs than any National League team. Only the Dodgers, in their spacious confines, have allowed fewer runs. No Cubs regular sports an on-base percentage south of .350. Their 110 OPS+ is their highest total of any Cubs team in 71 seasons. The 118 ERA+ Cubs pitchers boast is second only to the Dodgers. Their 188 run-differential is best in the National League by 72 runs.
There will be time to dissect the Cubs further...but for now, let us acknowledge a regular season of historic significance for one of Major League Baseball's most beloved franchises. The post-season promises unpredictable twists and turns but there can be no mistaking that this is the best October team Chicago will field in generations.

Not being fully emotionally invested in this week's games (though it was still galling to lose to the Mets Tuesday night), I paid a little more attention to some of the other games on the evening's schedule, specifically the Braves/Phillies, Pirates/Brewers, and White Sox/Twins matchups.

Having decided to root against the Mets and their fans enjoying any success this year or ever, I was disappointed with the Phillies loss, which, coupled with the Mets' win over the Cubs, reduced the Philly lead in the NL East to just 1 1/2 games. The Brewers scraped together an eighth-inning run to tie their game with Pittsburgh at 5-5, before Prince Fielder pounded a game-winning two-run homer in the bottom of the ninth to give Milwaukee a 7-5 victory and keep them within a game of the Mets for the Wild Card.

Finally, in Minneapolis, the White Sox got what was, is, and should be coming to them: a full-out beating. Years ago, I adopted the Twins as my favorite American League team—partly because of how masterfully they are able to torture the White Sox—and with the Sox' AL Central lead now down to just a game-and-a-half, I think I'm going to find it easy to remain interested in the final two games in this series.

Go Twins!

Being There

2008-09-23T08:52:00.003-05:00

If you're too focused on next week's playoffs to pay attention to the remaining few games on the Cubs' regular season schedule or be distracted by the centennial anniversary of one of the most remarkable plays in American sports history (one which paved the way to the Cubs' last World Series victory), here is something that will just make you feel good.

(Video courtesy of AHNY's Lakeview correspondent, Dave.)

Clinched: Arcane Cubs List of the Week

2008-09-22T07:29:00.007-05:00

In case you haven't heard, the Cubs beat the Cardinals Saturday to clinch the NL Central. Not only will this be the first time in a century that the Cubs have reached the post-season in consecutive years, according to WGN Radio, it is also the earliest date on which the Cubs have ever secured a post-season berth.

Here is how the last five Cub teams to reach the post-season got there:

2007
On September 28, the Cubs beat the Reds, 6-0, in Cincinnati to go three games up on the Brewers with two to play. The Cubs finished 85-77, two games ahead of Milwaukee.

2003
On September 27, the Cubs beat the Pirates 7-2 in the first game of a doubleheader with the Pirates to go three games up on the Astros with two to play. (The Cubs won the second game of the DH as well, 4-2.) The Cubs finished 88-73, two games ahead of Houston.

1998
On September 28, the Cubs beat the Giants, 5-3, in a one-game Wild Card playoff at Wrigley Field. The Cubs finished 90-73 (including the one-game playoff), which was 12 1/2 games worse than Houston, who won the Central, but one, very important game better than the Giants.

1989
On September 26, the Cubs beat the Expos (remember them?), 3-2, in Montreal, to go five games up on the Cardinals in the National League East with four games to play. The Cubs finished 93-69, six games ahead of the Mets, who slid past St. Louis into second.

1984
On September 24, the Cubs beat the Pirates, 4-1, in Pittsburgh to go 6 1/2 games up on the Mets with six to play. The Cubs finished 95-65, 6 1/2 games ahead of New York.

Sitting Vigil

2008-09-20T14:03:00.004-05:00

Thanks to Joey Votto, et al, the Cubs are now one more win or one more Brewer loss from finishing in first place in consecutive seasons for the first time since 1908. Assuming the Cubs claim the division title—if they don't, this blog will be shut down immediately—the next item we can focus our attention on is finishing with the best record in the National League and claiming home-field advantage in the NLDS and, God willing, the NLCS.

Here is how the NL teams stack up right now in the race for the best record:

Cubs 92-60*
Mets 86-67*
Phillies 86-68*
Brewers 84-70
Astros 81-72
Marlins 81-72
Dodgers 80-74*

(*Would reach post-season if season ended today)

The Cubs' Magic Number versus the Mets stands at 4, it's 3 versus the Phillies, and as all of Cubdom knows right now, the number is 1 versus the Brewers.

Depending on what happens in the next 48 hours and considering how well the Cubs have played at Wrigley Field this year, the team's 4-game series at Shea Stadium, which commences Monday, could be a much more meaningful one than a team already holding its post-season ticket would normally face in the season's final days.

The Seven Stages of Rooting for the Chicago Cubs on Thursday Afternoon

2008-09-18T23:49:00.005-05:00

Rich Harden walks the first two Milwaukee hitters, though he is then able to limit the Brewers to one first-inning run. Unfortunately, he has to throw 38 pitches to retire the side.

Stage 1: Mild Irritation

In the Cubs' half of the second inning, Jim Edmonds smacks a game-tying home run off Milwaukee's David Bush. In the fourth inning, another solo shot, this one by Aramis Ramirez, puts the Cubs ahead, 2-1.

Stage 2: Optimism

A Mark DeRosa error, Jeff Samardzija's lack of control, and some opportunely placed Brewers hits allow the visitors to score four runs in their half of the sixth inning to go in front, 5-2. In the bottom of the inning, Alfonso Soriano is on first when Derrek Lee hits into an inning-ending double play.

Stage 3: Depression

Still trailing 5-2 and having accumulated only three hits—two of them the solo homers by Edmonds and Ramirez—the Cubs get a potentially game-changing break in their half of the seventh inning: Milwaukee manager Dale Sveum hands the ball to Eric Gagne (6.25 ERA). But Gagne retires Ramirez, Edmonds, and Mark DeRosa on four pitches.

Stage 4: Anger

Despite running the bases like nervous Little Leaguers, the Brewers pad their lead to 6-2 in the top of the ninth. In the bottom of the inning, Salomon Torres retires the first two hitters.

Stage 5: Resignation

Double, single, single, homer. Tied game.

Stage 6: Delirium

After Marmol keeps the Brewers off the board in the top of the 10th, Wood is brilliant in the top of the 11th, the Cubs threaten but don't score in the bottom of the 11th, and Wood wriggles out of a seemingly desperate situation in the top of the 12th, Derrek Lee bats in the bottom of the 12th and scores pinch-runner Jason Marquis with a solid, two-out, game-winning single to center field.

The magic number is two.

Stage 7: Peace

"Go Brewers!" (but respectfully)

2008-09-18T08:28:00.003-05:00

I went to last night's game, the third I've attended on the last two homestands, and all have been defeats. I'll be drafting a request for my refund from the Cubs when I finish this post.

I was impressed by the number of Brewers fans I saw and also by their restrained but still vocal support of their team. Maybe the Brewers' recent trevails have dulled their enthusiasm; maybe they were intimidated by the Cubs' imminent division championship and status as NL pennant favorites; or maybe people from Wisconsin are nicer.

And a Blanco Shall Lead Them

2008-09-17T06:28:00.004-05:00

It struck me as ironic Tuesday night that at a pivotal point late in a key game near the end of a season in which we heard so often about the Cubs' need to add a left-handed bat, it was a right-handed bat Lou Piniella needed, and that the best he could do was Henry Blanco.

Blanco, who came into last night's game with a batting average 13 points higher than his previous career high, delivered magnificently, driving in the insurance run that proved altogether necessary in the top of the ninth, when Kerry Wood tasted a blown save but ultimately spit it out and preserved the victory.

(Wednesday Morning Irony #2: Brian Shouse, the left-handed reliever who made Blanco's election necessary, was also at the center of Joe Sheehan's ringing, post-firing criticism of Ned Yost; the piece I linked to yesterday. For the record, as Sheehan said, Shouse is virtually unhittable by left-handed batters —.175 AVG, 481 OPS Against—but eminently hittable by righties like Blanco—.293 AVG, 817 OPS Against.)

Apart from keeping alive the possibility that the Cubs can clinch the NL Central by Thursday afternoon, Tuesday night's win was brilliant in several ways, including:

How the Cubs allowed Prince Fielder to bang two home runs, thus leaving him arm-weary and unable to come through in the ninth inning

How the Cubs cleverly synchronized the victory with a Phillies win and a Mets loss, thus allowing the much-hated Mets to tumble out of the NL East lead and right into the Wild Card scrum with the Brewers and Astros

Brilliant.

Ned Yost (and maybe the Astros), R.I.P.

2008-09-16T00:34:00.005-05:00

Joe Sheehan offered a nice epitaph for now former Brewer manager Ned Yost over at Baseball Prospectus on Monday; that's "nice" as in well written, not nice as in sentimental or flattering.

After excoriating Yost for his in-game strategies, particularly his deployment of the Brewer bullpen during this past weekend's pivotal Brewers/Phillies series in Philadelphia, Sheehan addresses the widely perceived injustice of the Cubs/Astros games being moved to Milwaukee.

Writes Sheehan:

As someone who recognizes that the home-field advantage in MLB isn't very large, it's not a big deal to me. Most of the home-field advantage stems from the tactical advantage of batting last, and the Astros still had that. Far too much was made of the crowd makeup and the travel difference; these things are terribly minor concerns in the outcome of baseball games. No one was crossing time zones or playing in front of 55,000 hostiles.

There was no plan in place to harm the Astros, and the solution is the best one available under the circumstances. Had Drayton McLane and the Astros players elected to play the series beginning Friday, perhaps Tampa's Tropicana Field would have been an option. (With the wet weather across the country, a covered field would be something of a priority.) McLane held out the absurd hope that Houston would be a suitable location for baseball come Sunday, and when that was revealed to be ridiculous, he lost the right to complain about the solution handed down. The Astros players are a bit more sympathetic, as staying in Houston with their families during the storm was one reason they didn't want to play elsewhere, but again, that's the choice they made, and by making it, they lost Tampa as an option. I completely agree with how MLB handled it, and the only thing I might disagree with was that they were too accommodating. If Astros fans, the media, management, or the players themselves end up using this arrangement as an excuse, ignore them; the location of [Sunday] night's game was a nonfactor in its outcome.

If the Astros fail to pass the Phillies and Brewers to land the Wild Card slot—following Monday's loss to the Cubs, Houston trails the two frontrunners by 2 1/2 games—we will certainly hear a lot, for a very long time, about how the relocation of these games was the undoing of Cecil Cooper's team.

Personally, I think this club, which clawed back from an 11-game deficit to the Brewers just 19 days ago, has accomplished a lot. But it's still a team that's missing the big bat of Carlos Lee and one that grants an awful lot of at-bats to guys like Darin Erstad, Mark Loretta, and Brad Ausmus.

In other words, maybe the move to Milwaukee was unfair and squashed the Astros' momentum, and will ultimately cost Houston its shot at the post-season.

Or maybe this has been an overachieving team for many weeks; a team whose fairy tale was just due to end.

The "I No-Hit Houston Club": Arcane Cubs List of the Week

2008-09-14T23:07:00.008-05:00

Former Giant Juan Marichal pitched his way into the Baseball Hall of Fame, but to the best of my knowledge, he was never man enough to snap a bat in half over his knee after striking out as a hitter.

As of late Sunday night, however, Marichal does have one thing in common with the Cubs' Carlos Zambrano: both have no-hit Houston.

A surprisingly short list of the pitchers who, in the last 46 years, have thrown no-no's at either the Astros or the Colt .45's, as the expansion club was known between 1962 and 1964:

Pitcher(s)	Team	Date
Juan Marichal	San Francisco	June 15, 1963
Jim Maloney	Cincinnati	April 30, 1969
F. Cordova (9 IP), R. Rincon (1 IP)	Pittsburgh	July 12, 1997
Carlos Zambrano	Chicago Cubs	Sept. 14, 2008

A footnote...

In the starts immediately following their no-hit efforts v. Houston, here is how Zambrano's three predecessors fared:

Marichal followed his no-hitter with an impressive win (1 ER, 7.2 IP) against the Dodgers; Maloney lasted just 5 innings, though he yielded only one run, in a loss to the Mets; and Cordova, who was no Juan Marichal and not even a Jim Maloney, got bombed, allowing 8 hits and 7 runs in just 2 IP as the Pirates lost to the Reds.

If Zambrano takes his regular turn in the rotation, his next start will be on Friday, at Wrigley Field, against the Cardinals.

Cubs Show Leather in Beating Cardinals

2008-09-12T00:02:00.004-05:00

The Cubs have been one of the National League's best defensive teams all year long and even with some breakdowns during their recent losing streak, the team continues to lead the NL in Defensive Efficiency Rating (percentage of batted balls converted into outs).

The display of glovework in the late innings of Thursday's 3-2 win at St. Louis was exceptional by any standards, however. Alfonso Soriano, Kosuke Fukudome, Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez all turned in outstanding plays that proved essential to preserving the Cubs' one-run margin and making a winner of Rich Harden, returning to the rotation after 12 days of rest.

The defensive play also masked the fact that both Carlos Marmol and Kerry Wood were hit hard and that the Cub offense continued to look inept. Lee, who struck out with runners at first and third and none out in the first inning—at least he avoided hitting into a double play—looks like he could use a rest.

Ike is apparently going to ensure that he gets it.

That Mother Nature is One Tough, Cub-Hating Old Lady

2008-09-10T23:31:00.007-05:00

Update: Cubs and Astros will not be playing in Saint Loo.

From the St. Louis Post-Dispatch:

...word from our man Rick Hummel is that MLB doesn't look at St. Louis as a suitable location, in part because of its proximity to Chicago, which could give the Cubs an unfair advantage. Also, both Houston and Chicago have an open date Monday, so a good bet would be to wait out the storm and see if they can get at least two games played in Houston.

What does one say of a person who sees the television news coverage of Hurricane Ike and its predicted path of death and destruction across the Gulf of Mexico and Texas and thinks not of the imminent tragedy, but of the impact the storm is likely to have on the Cubs' pursuit of a division championship?

As that person, I say, sorry, I can't help being a narrowly focused jerk. At least, not when the Cubs are scheduled to begin a weekend series in hurricane-threatened Houston on Friday, are just fitting Rich Harden and Carlos Zambrano back into the regular pitching rotation, and are hoping to give all of the starters an opportunity to establish some rhythm before the Cubs' likely appearance in the post-season.

As of early Wednesday evening, the Astros would only commit to considering changing gametime Friday from 7:05pm to 1:05pm.

Beyond that, there is speculation that the entire series could be moved back north to Chicago, or shuttled to a neutral location like St. Louis. A final decision on the matter will be made Thursday.

Whatever MLB decides, let's hope it doesn't do anything to rattle Wednesday night's Cub starter, Ted Lilly, who bounced back from a disastrous outing against the Reds to allow the Cards just one ER as the Cubs won, 4-3.

Lilly's 8 IP, 5 K, 0 BB effort was worth a Game Score of 74 points, his fifth best start in 64 as a Cub.

As far as I know, there is no metric to capture the emotional value of seeing your 185-pound pitcher run over the opposition's 215-pound starting catcher and knock him right out of the game.

Division Race Between Two Teams That Can't Win: A Musical Interpretation

2008-09-10T00:06:00.002-05:00

The Cubs scored early then not at all as they suffered another 9th inning defeat Tuesday night, while the Brewers waited until the 11th to be overcome yet again by the Reds. The Cubs have now dropped 8 of their last 9 games, but have only lost a game off their NL Central lead (still at 4 1/2 games), owing to Milwaukee's current 2-7 homestand.

All of that being the case, tonight we present Ronny Cox in the role of the Chicago Cubs and the Banjo Kid from "Deliverance" as the Milwaukee Brewers in a musical interpretation of what has become the freakishly compelling National League Central race.

When It's Too Painful to Look Back, You Look Ahead...Way Ahead

2008-09-08T23:44:00.008-05:00

While the Cubs were stumbling in Cincinnati this past weekend, the Dodgers were sweeping the Diamondbacks right out of the NL West lead. With their 5-3 victory on Sunday, L.A. had won eight straight and established a game-and-a-half lead in the division over Arizona, who had assumed first place all the way back on April 6th and remained there until this latest visit to Dodger Stadium.

If the Dodgers can hold onto their lead, the Cubs win the NL Central, and the Brewers claim the Wild Card, the Cubs would host Joe Torre's club in the NLDS. In 7 games this year, the Cubs went 5-2 against L.A., sweeping a tense, low-scoring three-game series at Wrigley in late May (by scores of 3-1, 3-1, and 2-1), and splitting a four-game series at Dodger Stadium in early June. All of this, of course, happened during the Dodgers' pre-Manny Ramirez days.

Bob Howry claimed two of the Cubs' five wins, with Ryan Dempster, Sean Gallagher, and Jason Marquis earning the others. Gallagher and Carlos Zambrano accepted the two Chicago defeats. Hiroki Kuroda and Derek Lowe registered the only Dodgers wins in the series. Coincidentally, the Dodgers' highly regarded rookie lefthander, Clayton Kershaw, who started Sunday's game against Arizona, never had his turn in the rotation come up when the Dodgers and Cubs played this season.

If telescoping ahead to a post-season series that may never happen seems like a way to avoid confronting Sunday's loss or thinking too intently about a future without a healthy Zambrano and/or Rich Harden in the Cubs rotation, well, that's pretty much what it is. The Cubs, however, are hopeful that Harden will be have benefited from his recent rest when he starts Thursday's game at St. Louis and that Zambrano will be able to make his next scheduled start on Saturday, in the middle game of the Cubs/Astros series in Houston.

(In the time it took me to finish this post, the Dodgers and Diamondbacks both lost games on the West Coast, to the Padres and Giants, respectively, so L.A. will remain atop the West. For their part, the Brewers' dreadful bullpen, i.e., Salomon Torres, allowed the Reds to pull out yet another 9th inning win, dropping the Milwaukees 4 1/2 games behind the Cubs. If I didn't hate the Reds so much, I might actually be feeling some fondness for them right now.)

Endings: Arcane Cubs List Of The Week

2008-09-07T23:29:00.004-05:00

With Sunday's ridiculous loss at Cincinnati—the Cubs' seventh defeat in the last eight games—the team's record fell to 86-57, which is still four games better than the Brewers, who got creamed at home by the Padres on Sunday and just ended a 2-5 homestand.

The four-game advantage is significantly less than it would have been if the Cubs had taken advantage of the Brewers' struggles this past week, but it's still a larger lead than all but one of the Cubs' recent post-season teams held 143 games into their respective seasons.

The details:

1984
86-57, 1st place in NL East, +6 games over the Mets
(Cubs went 10-8 the rest of the way, finishing 1st in the East, 6 games ahead of the Mets)

1989
80-63, 1st place in NL East, + 2 1/2 games over the Cardinals
(Cubs finished 13-6, ending at 93-69, first in the East, 6 games ahead of the Mets)

1998
80-63, 2nd place in NL Central, 10 games behind the Astros; +1 over the Mets for Wild Card
(Cubs finished 10-10, ending at 90-73, 12 1/2 games behind the Astros; +1 over S.F. for Wild Card)

2003
76-67, 1st place in NL Central, + 1/2 game over the Astros
(Cubs went 12-7 to finish the year, ending at 88-74, +1 game over the Astros)

2007
73-70, 1st place in NL Central, tied with the Brewers, +3 games over the Cardinals
(Cubs went 12-7 the rest of the way, finishing 87-75, +2 games over the Brewers)

Zambrano Goes Under the Knife (Relax—I Mean It Metaphorically)

2008-09-05T12:31:00.005-05:00

From Will Carroll's "Under the Knife" column at Baseball Prospectus (subscription):

The most worrisome aspects of Zambrano's start (on Tuesday) were the arm angle and the quick drop in velocity. By the third inning, he was down from 93 to 90, and by the fourth and fifth he was exerting more effort just to stay in the 90 range. The extra time off might have made him stronger in the early going, but it didn't last time out...

On Thursday, (Zambrano) did receive another cortisone shot and had scheduled tests done that apparently showed he's having another bout of rotator cuff tendonitis. Given his results since last time, I'm not sure that this is going to be comforting news to Cubs fans, especially if he comes back next week with his lower arm slot.

A Pretty Good Off-Day

2008-09-05T01:33:00.003-05:00

Apart from our learning that Carlos Zambrano could be back on the mound by September 14th, presumably minus the discomfort caused recently by his rotator cuff tendinitis, there was another positive development on the baseball front Thursday:

The Brewers lost 5-2 at home to the team with the worst record and worst road record in the National League, the woeful Padres. Compounding the Brewers' frustration was knowing that they had been conquered by the habitually woeful Shawn Estes, who was making his first start since May, when he sustained a broken thumb.

Yes, it's that Shawn Estes. The one who merited 28 starts for Dusty Baker's 2003 Cubs though his ERA was 5.73 and who missed all of the 2007 season as he recovered from Tommy John Surgery.

(In all, Tom Haudricort of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel found ten reasons for the Brewers to be profoundly bummed out by having fallen to the Pads. Read and enjoy.)

The bottom line for the Cubs on this non-playing day is that they currently enjoy a five-game lead over Milwaukee with 22 contests to come. And if there is a National League Central championship in the team's near future, it sounds as though Carlos Zambrano will be back in uniform to help toast it.

Brother, Was I Lucky to See Two Awful Games This Week!

2008-09-03T23:20:00.004-05:00

After attending the first two Cub losses to the Astros, I wouldn't have thought it possible that the final game in the series could be worse than those I viewed in person.

Shows what I know.

So Carlos is hurting, while Rich Harden is denying that he's hurting, saying instead that the Cubs' plan to hold him back until the middle of next week was part of a long-ago conceived plan to lighten his load heading into the season's final weeks. The current five-game losing streak is the team's longest of the season, and now the Cubs head into that 22-game stretch, including 16 road contests, we have been anticipating and perhaps fearing since the season was in its infancy. And, oh, yeah, every Cub-hating jerk you know has decided it's terribly clever of him to remind you about 1969...as if any of us will ever really put '69 behind us until the Cubs win it all.

For the record:

On this date in 1969, the Cubs were 84-53 and enjoyed a 5-game bulge over the second-place Mets, a margin which rapidly evaporated as the Cubs proceeded to lose 8 games in a row and 11 of 12 through the middle of the month, at which point the Mets had built a 4 1/2-game lead and the NL East race was over.

After tonight's loss, the Cubs are 83-55 and enjoy a 4 1/2-game lead over the second-place Brewers, and they're in the middle of a significant losing streak.

Sorry, I just don't see the parallel.

(Thank God for the Wild Card.)

Now Playing Right Field for the Cubs...Cesar Geronimo

2008-09-02T16:50:00.005-05:00

When Derrek Lee’s long fly ball into the teeth of an east wind landed harmlessly in Hunter Pence’s mitt and the Cubs’ 3-0 loss to Houston was complete Monday afternoon, it was only the second most demoralizing moment in the home half of the ninth inning.

The low point was having Kosuke Fukudome rap into what would have been a game-ending double play had Alfonso Soriano not upended Jose Castillo, the Astros second-baseman.

I found Fukudome’s at-bat depressing because he looked as hopeless through most of that turn against Houston closer Jose Valverde as he has through most every turn at the plate for many, many weeks.

An average in the .260s, a homer total in the high single digits, 50+ RBI—the Cubs have granted significant playing time over the years to outfielders who produced much less offense. And when you factor in Fukudome’s speed and range and generally superb throwing accuracy, the first-year Cub is far from an embarrassment.

It’s just that he is nowhere near the star, at least not yet, that many of us thought he would be.

At different points this season, as the Cubs offense has binged whether or not Fukudome was contributing, I have thought back on one of the best-hitting teams of my lifetime, the Big Red Machine of the mid-‘70s. A mainstay of those teams was the centerfielder, Cesar Geronimo, who was the weak link offensively but an exceptional asset in the field.

Here is a comparison between Geronimo’s career, 162-game averages, his totals in 1975, and Fukudome’s numbers this season:

Geronimo (162-game averages): .258 AVG, 5 HR, 42 RBI, 683 OPS, 93 OPS+
Geronimo (1975): .257 AVG, 6 HR, 53 RBI, 690 OPS, 90 OPS+
Fukudome (2008): .263 AVG, 9 HR, 54 RBI, 748 OPS, 94 OPS+

It looks to me like the comparison is a fair one, and if Fukudome only ever turns out to be Cesar Geronimo, maybe it's not the end of the world.

Particularly if the Cubs follow the path of the '75 and '76 Reds for whom Geronimo played and win a World Series.

Death by Innings Pitched: Arcane Cubs List of the Week

2008-08-31T00:19:00.009-05:00

Carlos Zambrano may skip his scheduled Sunday start in the finalé of the Cubs' 4-game series with the Phillies because of a dead BUT NOT INJURED! arm.

(By the way, Lou Piniella isn't even willing to concede the "dead arm" description. As he told Toni Ginnetti of the Sun-Times, ''Zambrano doesn't have a sore arm, and he doesn't have a dead arm. It's muscular in the triceps area, and that's where you get tired.")

Said Cubs pitching coach Larry Rothschild of Zambrano:

"He's pitched a lot of innings in the last six, seven years. You can compare him with a lot of people, but I don't know anyone who has logged the pitches and innings that he has."

Larry Rothschild asked, and I will answer–here are the National League leaders in pitches thrown since 2001:

Livan Hernandez 25,789
Tom Glavine 24,270
Roy Oswalt 23,651
Carlos Zambrano 22,458
Greg Maddux 22,314
Matt Morris 21,372
Ben Sheets 21,584
Brad Penny 21,204
Jake Peavy 20,070
Woody Williams 19,932

Carlos' Cub teammate Jason Marquis is 11th on the list at 19,522.

As you might have guessed, the list of NL hurlers with the most innings pitched since '01 contains many of the same names. Maddux heads that list at 1660.2 IP; Zambrano is 7th at 1361.2. Marquis, with 1220 innings logged for the Braves, Cardinals, and Cubs, is 12th.

Car Crash, as Described by a Bunch of Phillies Fans Who Got Creamed

2008-08-29T00:04:00.006-05:00

From reader comments during Thursday night's stirring 6-4 Cubs victory, the Cubs' 50th home victory of the season, as they appeared at The Good Phight, an excellent Phillies fans blog:

Oh Baby, Cole is on tonight. 7:19 pm
Good work Cole. He’s on tonight. 7:35 pm
Cole is going good so far tonight. 9:07 pm
Oh crap, get Madson out of there. 9:26 pm
We’re heading for another 8th inning meltdown! 9:29 pm
How many times recently has the bullpen crapped the bed? 9:31 pm
Bases loaded no outs. Wow. 9:33 pm
Were fucked. 9:33 pm
And a fucking Grand Slam…Charlie you should of just left Cole in... 9:35 pm
Utley never comes through in the clutch. 9:51 pm
man, phils could use somebody like kerry wood…throws strikes! 9:53 pm
they let that one get away. that was a win. they blew that one. damn it. 9:58 pm

Sarcastic Kiss-Off Memos Don't Get Much Better Than This

2008-08-27T22:45:00.007-05:00

A quick timeout from the Cubs to consider other news on the Chicago sports scene...

Longtime sourpuss columnist Jay Mariotti announced on Wednesday that he had resigned his position at the Chicago Sun-Times, a development which occasioned a pointed reaction from Sun-Times editor Michael Cooke. Per Phil Rosenthal in the Tribune:

Cooke issued a decidedly unsentimental statement concerning Mariotti's exit..."We wish Jay well and will miss him--not personally, of course--but in the sense of noticing he is no longer here, at least for a few days."

The irony of all this is twofold.

First, the Sun-Times agreed with Mariotti on a contract extension until 2011 less than three months ago.

Second, Cooke's brief statement is more memorable than anything Mariotti has written in the past 17 years.

With Wednesday's 2-0 win at Pittsburgh, the Cubs finished the fleshy underbelly part of their late-season schedule—a sequence of three series and nine games against the Reds, Nationals, and Pirates—with seven wins and two losses and a six-game lead over the Brewers in the NL Central. Now the Cubs have to get back to work.

On Thursday, the team will open a four-game set against the Phillies at Wrigley Field. Though the Phils lost to the Mets Wednesday to fall a half-game behind New York in the N.L. East race, they will come to Chicago still able to lay claim to a distinction unique so far this year in the National League:

The Phillies are the only team to enjoy an edge in their season series with the Cubs. (Charlie Manuel's team took two of three from Lou Piniella's boys at Citizens Bank Park back in mid-April.)

Tuesday Night: A Great Night for the Cubs...Except for the Parts That Were Abominable

2008-08-26T23:03:00.007-05:00

Tuesday's 14-9 Cub win at Pittsburgh may go down as the game that cemented Geovany Soto's selection as 2008 National League Rookie of the Year. Geo had a pair of three-run doubles, a solo homer, and 7 RBI overall. Soto has now hit more home runs than any rookie catcher in Cub history and his batting line, which currently stands at .280 AVG/20 HR/78 RBI, will wind up as one of the best ever by a Cub catcher, rookie or otherwise.

Also positive—Kosuke Fukudome's throw from rightfield to nail rookie Brandon Moss on his way to third base; Carlos Zambrano continuing to hit like a sonofagun (eighth consecutive start in which he has driven in a run); Mike Fonenot, who entered the game in the bottom of the fifth, going 2-for-2 and also making a fine, diving play in the field.

On the negative side of Tuesday's fun, however, we have:

Zambrano pitching like hell: 8 hits, 6 ER in just 4 1/3 innings. Not the first time our supposed ace has turned in game like this. In fact, it's the third time in Zambrano's last four starts that he has pitched quite poorly.

Alfonso Soriano bunny-hopping his way to another embarrassing error on a routine fly ball. The only thing worse then giving the opposition an extra out and a free run, which Fonzie did with his flub in the sixth inning, is injuring yourself in the process, which, as we all know, Soriano has also done this season. For the love of God and Lou Piniella...NO...MORE...HOPPING!

Ben Sheets pitching like Ben Sheets. The Milwaukee righty helped the Brewers vanquish the Cardinals, 12-0, at Busch Stadium to stay within five games of the first-place Cubs. It's a tad frustrating that the Cubs have played as well as they have lately and still, the Brewers are within haling distance of first place. For their part, the Brewers have won 14 out of 18 and not gained a game or even a half game on the Cubs. There is some consolation for the Milwaukees, however:

By shutting out the Cards Tuesday, the Brewers now have a 4 1/2 game lead in the Wild Card race.

Cubs Edge Further into Unfamiliar Territory

2008-08-25T23:53:00.004-05:00

With a division lead of 5 games, a record that now stands a dizzying 31 games above .500, a .614 winning percentage that's higher than the season-ending number for any Cub team since 1945, and a 98.89% chance of making the playoffs (according to Baseball Prospectus's Playoff Odds Report), the Cubs are making me feel...do I dare use the word?...hopeful.

On the other hand, consider this thought which crossed my mind as I was watching tonight's rout:

If the Brewers had simply managed a split of their big four-game series with the Cubs several weeks ago in Milwaukee instead of spitting the bit in all four contests, the Cubs' record would be 79-52, the Brewers' record would be just one game worse at 78-53, and everyone in the Cub-loving universe would be even more obsessed with the moment-by-moment reports from MLB.com Gameday than we already are.

No spine-tingling drama coming out of Pittsburgh tonight, however, as Ted Lilly shut down the Pirates while Lee, Edmonds, and Fukudome—two of whom, Edmonds and Fukudome, have been non-contributors this month while Lee has been so-so at best—conspired to bash the Pirates' brains in. The trio went a combined 9-for-13 with four doubles, a triple, 4 runs scored, and 6 RBI. Lilly, meanwhile, is now 13-7, has won 6 of his last 7, and has delivered Quality Starts in 9 of his last 11 outings.

And if you're wondering how the late, great Harry Caray might have reacted to all this, you don't have to wonder—just hear what he has to say following every Cub game the rest of the season at 1908worldchampions.com.

"I'm No Carlos Zambrano"—Arcane Cubs List Of The Week

2008-08-22T06:40:00.006-05:00

On Thursday, Carlos Zambrano hit his 16th career home run, and it was a good thing that he did: the Cub offense, which sputtered in the three-game series with Cincinnati, only produced two other runs against Josh Fogg, et al, and the Cubs needed Zambrano's blast to prevail, 3-2, and take the series, 2 games to 1.

With 16 bombs, Zambrano has hit more home runs than any other Cub pitcher in history. (Fergie Jenkins is second with 13, and I thought this was surprising—Kerry Wood is the only other recent player near the top. He stands in seventh place with 7 career homers.)

But why focus on the positive when the negative numbers are so easily captured by BaseballReference.com? Here, then, is a list of the non-pitchers who had the most career at-bats as a Chicago Cub since 1961 and still hit fewer home runs than a pitcher with a mere 483 at-bats, Carlos Zambrano. (Players are listed in order of career AB's as a Cub.)

Don Kessinger 11 HR, 6355 AB
Ivan DeJesus 14 HR, 2900 AB
Rey Sanchez 6 HR, 1835 AB
Joe Girardi 13 HR, 1719 AB
Larry Bowa 2 HR, 1584 AB
Ken Hubbs 14 HR, 1255 AB
Dick Bertell 10 HR, 1247 AB
Eric Young 12 HR, 1210 AB
Jerome Walton 12 HR, 1192 AB
Ryan Theriot 7 HR, 1144 AB

You Heard It First (From Ron Santo): Tough to Score at Wrigley Wednesday

2008-08-21T00:46:00.003-05:00

On the WGN pre-game show before Wednesday night's Cubs-Reds broadcast, Ron Santo mentioned that the wind was blowing in off the lake, which is atypical for a late summer game at Wrigley Field but was a repeat of the conditions for Tuesday night's game. Santo's prediction of a low-scoring game proved correct, as the Reds totaled just four hits and the Cubs three, with the visitors ultimately winning 2-1.

Lou Piniella was clearly peeved afterward at the loss and the Cubs' failure to cash in on scoring opportunities like the one they faced in the fourth inning. Then Kosuke Fukudome came up with men at first and third and none out and couldn't even produce a double-play ball that would have plated a run. Instead, he blooped a fly ball to short center that produced nothing more than the first out of the inning, after which Geovany Soto rapped into a rally-killing double play.

It's hard to blame Soto, who has been so productive this year, but impossible not to blame Fukudome, who has been less than feeble for a very long time. Piniella's warning last week that Fukudome had to start hitting or expect to see his playing time curtailed could well get repeated in coming days if the Cub rightfielder's bat doesn't wake up.

Fukudome's OPS by Month:
March/April 915
May 792
June 789
July 688
August 455

Fukudome's batting average, which didn't dip below .300 until May 26th of this season, is now at a season low .266, and his average for the month of August is around .170.

All in all, Wednesday night's game was a turd, especially for Ted Lilly, who carried a no-hitter into the sixth inning and was masterful overall. He deserved better than Fukudome and his mates gave him.

About Harden, C.C. Sabathia, and Rick Sutcliffe

2008-08-20T11:32:00.004-05:00

In light of the seven shutout innings the Cubs got from their newest starting pitcher Tuesday night and the complete-game win the Brewers got from their former American Leaguer Monday night—C.C. Sabathia's eighth without a defeat for Milwaukee—I have a post up at The Cub Reporter. It compares recent numbers from the Cubs' Rich Harden, Sabathia and relevant, 24-year-old numbers for Rick Sutcliffe, who made such a big difference in the NL East race back in 1984.

One other item of interest related to Harden:

In the post-game lockerroom chatter, Ryan Theriot was marveling at Harden's performance considering "he is only throwing two pitches." I presume that means fastball and change-up, which was not the company line from Cubs Assistant G.M. Randy Bush right after the trade that landed the righthander and Chad Gaudin from the Athletics, when Bush said Harden has still throwing his full repertoire of pitches, breaking ball included.

But maybe that's quibbling, and I should just be thrilled with a guy who, injury-prone or not, has a 1.50 ERA and a better than four-to-one K/BB ratio in his first seven National League starts.

Consider me thrilled.

Former Cub Maddux Becomes a Former Padre

2008-08-18T23:18:00.003-05:00

For the second time in two years, former Cub Greg Maddux, most recently of the Padres, has been traded to Los Angeles. No word yet on whom the Dodgers will be sending to San Diego to complete the deal for the future Hall of Famer, who was 6-9, 3.99 for a terrible Padres team.

Maddux's first move west happened back on July 31, 2006. With the Cubs languishing in 5th place in the NL Central at 43-62 and 15 1/2 games behind the first-place Cardinals, Jim Hendry gave the future Hall of Famer a chance to play a role in yet another pennant race. At the time, the Dodgers were 50-55, but just 5 games off the NL West lead then held by the Padres.

Maddux justified the deal by going 6-3, 3.60 over the season's final two months and helping to pitch Los Angeles into the playoffs, where they were dispatched in three straight NLDS games by the Mets. Mad Dog started the third and climactic game in that series, though he went just four innings and was hit hard.

In exchange for Maddux, the Cubs acquired shortstop Cesar Izturis, who was with the team for 12 days short of one calendar year and was terrible, eventually being shipped to the Pirates, before he joined the Cardinals this past off-season.

Swing, Baby!—Arcane Cubs List of the Week

2008-08-15T12:56:00.010-05:00

A hallmark of this Cub season has been the team's prodigious scoring (656 runs scored through 121 games; nearly .5 run more per game than the second-ranking Mets), and a key component of that offense has been the team's ability to take walks and take pitches that leave them in "hitters' counts."

All of that said, The Hardball Times on Thursday linked to a great new baseball stats site called StatCorner created by Matthew Carruth and Graham MacAree. Among the numbers available there are the percentages of pitches seen which individual players swing at.

Here are the Swing Percentages for the 2008 Cubs. (Note: on average, MLB hitters swing at approximately 45% of the pitches thrown their way.)

Blanco, 49.9%
Cedeño, 52.2%
DeRosa, 42%
Edmonds, 43.6%
Fontenot, 41.6%
Fukudome, 40.7%
Johnson, 45.1%
Lee, 42.2%
Ramirez, 45.6%
Soriano, 52.5%
Soto, 41.9%
Theriot, 39.3%
Ward, 42%

As you can see, of the nine Cub regulars (that's including both Jim Edmonds and Reed Johnson), only Soriano, Ramirez, and Johnson swing at more than the average number of pitches, and Ramirez and Johnson do so just barely. Ryan Theriot and Kosuke Fukudome swing at markedly fewer pitches than average.

Interestingly, Ramirez's swing percentage is his lowest since joining the Cubs in '03, and Soriano's, while highest on the team, is significantly lower than last year's 57.9%. Not coincidentally, I think, Ramirez's current OBP (.385) would be far and away a career high, and Soriano's .344 would be his second-highest in ten Major League seasons.

New Adventures in Braves-Bashing

2008-08-14T06:59:00.004-05:00

With Wednesday's doubleheader sweep, the Cubs are assured of no worse than 5-1 record against the Braves this season, pending the result of Thursday's series finale. That's the best record by percentage the Cubs have ever had in a season series against Atlanta. In both 1969 and '84, the Cubs took 9 of 12 (.750) from the Braves; in '99, the Cubs went 5-2 (.714).

Also, the Cubs have now won seven road games in a row, in which they have outscored opponents 59-19, and in all but one of those games, the Cubs have scored at least 7 runs.

My question is, when are the Cubs going to start playing as well at home as they do on the road?

Ted Lilly (11-6) faces Tom Glavine (2-3) Thursday at 6pm CDT.

Cubs, Braves—Dueling, Slumping Rightfielders

2008-08-12T23:07:00.005-05:00

On Sunday, Lou Piniella said Kosuke Fukudome—with 2 HR and an OPS of 602 since July 1st—would have to snap out of his slump if he wanted to hold his place in the Cubs lineup.

On Saturday when the Braves played the Diamondbacks, Bobby Cox's batting order did not include Jeff Francoeur, who has hit just .209 with 6 HR in 90 games since April 25th and has just 1 HR in his last 176 at-bats. Instead Cox started rookie Gregor Blanco, who went o-for-2 with 3 walks.

On Tuesday, Paul Sullivan of the Tribune reported that Piniella was backing away from what he said a little more than 48 hours previously:

In [Tuesday night's scheduled] game...[Piniella] had Fukudome in right field and hitting second in the lineup.

"We want this young man to hit," Piniella said. "We're pulling for him. … I never said I was disappointed. All I said, basically, was we'd like to see him start hitting—and it created a stir. I mean, I've said that about other players.

"He's a good player, a real good player, and to his credit, he has continued to hustle and he has played really well in right field. He's just in a little bit of a slump...He's not working the count the way he was earlier. He just needs to swing at more strikes.

"I really respect him and I really like him as a player. But I get asked every day, and I said, 'Look, if a guy is struggling, whether it's Fukudome or anybody else—if he continues to struggle, you try to find somebody else who's swinging the bat. That's all I said. And if it created a stir, I'm sorry."

Of Francoeur, David O'Brien wrote in Tuesday's Atlanta Journal-Constitution:

The erstwhile Braves "Golden Boy" has been mentioned in trade rumors — something inconceivable a year ago when he was on his way to a second consecutive plus-100 RBI season.
He has regressed from 29 homers in his first full season in 2006, to 19 homers last season and nine homers and 49 RBIs through 118 games this season.

Francoeur is struggling to a great degree in two areas where he previously excelled — hitting with runners in scoring position and against left-handers.

After batting .338 with runners in scoring position in 2005, .320 in 2006, and .341 in 2007, Francoeur is worst among Braves regulars with a .186 average with runners in scoring position this season.

According to O'Brien, Blanco will man rightfield in the opener of Wednesday's day/night doubleheader, and Francoeur, who was actually demoted to the Braves' Double-A Mississippi team for a weekend last month, will start in the nightcap.

Take Another Bow, Jim Hendry

2008-08-12T07:09:00.003-05:00

At various times this season, the Braves, who host the Cubs in the first of three games beginning Tuesday night, have faced starting pitchers Ben Sheets, Jake Peavy, C.C. Sabathia, Tim Lincecum, Edinson Volquez, Brandon Webb, Carlos Zambrano, and Johan Santana (multiple times). But in the judgment of manager Bobby Cox, the guy they'll go up against Tuesday surpasses them all.

"[Rich Harden] is the best pitcher we've seen this year," Cox said. "He's very impressive."

Harden pitched against Cox's Braves on May 17th, when he was still with Oakland. In that game, in which he dueled former teammate Tim Hudson, Harden allowed 1 run and 4 hits over 7 innings. He fanned 8 and walked 1. The A's wound up winning 5-4 after the Athletics bullpen allowed Atlanta a 3-run ninth inning.

Tuesday night, Harden will be opposed by Charlie Morton, who is just 3-5, 5.70, but has pitched well the last two times out, against the Diamondbacks and Brewers.

Those Amazing, Pitcher-Punishing Cub Centerfielders: Arcane Cubs List Of The Week

2008-08-08T23:24:00.003-05:00

Henry Blanco had the game-winning hit in Friday's 3-2, 11-inning Cub victory over the Cardinals, but it was Jim Edmonds's two home runs against his former mates that commanded the day's highlight reel.

Back in May when Edmonds was newly a Cub, some jerk set up a sort of Jim Edmonds Death Watch tied to the number of at-bats the centerfielder could accumulate without earning his first RBI in Chicago blue pinstripes. The number reached 26 before Edmonds clubbed his first Cub home run in a 10-9 win over the Rockies, and the fact is, Edmonds has been producing ever since. Heading into Friday's action, Edmonds's offensive numbers as a Cub were .279 AVG/.381 OBP/.588 SLG/969 OPS. In 56 games, he has hit 14 HR and collected 38 RBI.

Moreover, coupling Edmonds's offense with that of fellow centerfielder Reed Johnson (.299/.363/.444), the Cubs have gotten the second best productivity in the NL from a position that looked like a potential offensive sinkhole for them back on Opening Day, when it was manned by non-hitting Felix Pie.

Here's a look at the offense, as measured by OPS, which National League teams have gotten from their respective centerfielders (team's primary CF is in parens):

St. Louis (Rick Ankiel) 854
CUBS (Jim Edmonds) 853
San Diego (Jody Gerut) 844
Pittsburgh (Nate McLouth) 835
Philadelphia (Shane Victorino) 828
New York (Carlos Beltran) 795
Milwaukee (Mike Cameron) 791
Atlanta (Mark Kotsay) 749
San Francisco (Aaron Rowand) 739
Arizona (Chris Young) 721
Washington (Lastings Milledge) 718
Florida (Cody Ross) 715
Cincinnati (Corey Patterson) 698
Colorado (Willy Taveras) 658
Los Angeles (Matt Kemp) 621
Houston (Michael Bourn) 590

Scott Eyre's Problem? Not Injuries, Not a 36-Year-Old Left Arm, But Interleague Play

2008-08-07T21:58:00.003-05:00

From the official Philadelphia Phillies press release announcing the acquisition of reliever Scott Eyre from the Cubs in exchange for minor league righty Brian Schlitter:

Eyre, 36, had appeared in only 19 games for the Cubs this season due to two separate stints on the disabled list for left elbow inflammation and a strained left groin. He was 2-0 with a 7.15 ERA with 14 strikeouts in 11.1 innings (11.1 SO/9.0 IP). His first 14 appearances of the season were scoreless (9.0 IP). Against the National League this season, Eyre is 2-0 with a 3.24 ERA in 14 games. Six of the nine earned runs he has allowed this year have come against American League teams.

So now you know.

Cubs Survive 20 Games in 20 Days

2008-08-06T23:03:00.004-05:00

With Wednesday afternoon's resounding 11-4 win over the Astros, the Cubs completed the 20-games-in-20-days gauntlet that awaited them following the All-Star break.

Here is how Lou Piniella's team fared in that stretch, which commenced with a Friday night game in Houston back on July 18th:

Won: 12
Lost: 8
Runs Scored: 108 (5.4/game)
Runs Allowed: 71 (3.6/game)

Some impressive individual numbers...

Alfonso Soriano, who didn't even return from the Disabled List until July 23rd and so, only played in 15 of the 20 games, has helped reinvigorate the Cub offense during this span by going 23-for-66 (.348) with 6 HR and 15 RBI. Reed Johnson, who saw extra playing time while Jim Edmonds rested his banged up body, went a scorching 17-for-36 (.472) with 3 HR and 9 RBI.

Newcomer Rich Harden, despite getting cuffed around by the Astros on Tuesday, posted some stunning figures in his four starts, like 37 strikeouts against just 6 walks in 24 2/3 IP with a 669 OPS Against. And Harden's fellow former Oakland Athletic, reliever Chad Gaudin, earned 3 of the Cubs' 12 victories in the 20 games, with 16 strikeouts, 3 walks, and a handsome 1.80 ERA over 10 innings.

Finally, the standings facts...

Cubs' position at beginning of 20 games: 1st, +4.5 games over St. Louis; +5 over Milwaukee
Cubs' position at end of 20 games: 1st, +5 over Milwaukee (12-8 in this period), +5.5 over St. Louis (11-9)

Obviously it would have been swell if the Cubs had been able to separate themselves from their two NL Central rivals over these past 20 games. On the other hand, neither team was able to bite into the Cubs' advantage at the All-Star break and there are now 20 fewer games remaining on the teams' regular season slates, which has a lot to do with this piece of arithmetic:

By the reckoning of ESPN and coolstandings.com, the Cubs currently have an 81.4% probability of winning the division and a 94.6% likelihood of making the post-season.

Jeremy Hermida Learned His Lesson

2008-07-25T23:04:00.005-05:00

Bo Porter, who broke in with the Cubs as an outfielder back in 1999 and today is the Marlins' third-base and outfield coach, has been counseling the Florida outfield corps in the fine art of negotiating Wrigley Field's ivy-covered brick walls.

No word on who counseled Jeremy Hermida on how to hit a Bob Howry meatball, but somebody clearly instructed him pretty well.

Things will be quiet around here for the next week and a half or so. Should be back around August 7th.

Go Cubs.

Wood is Out, Samardzija is Coming, and Marmol Continues to Court Trouble

2008-07-25T00:45:00.005-05:00

Before tonight's 6-3 win over the Marlins, the Cubs officially disabled Kerry Wood. After the win, the Cubs officially summoned righthander Jeff Samardzija from Iowa.

Though Samardzija appeared to be a candidate to share in middle-inning relief duties while Wood was out and Carlos Marmol slipped into the closer's role, Gordon Wittenmyer writes in the Sun-Times that Samardzija might start one of this weekend's games against Florida, which would allow Lou Piniella to give Rich Harden an extra day's rest. As Wittenmyer points out,

A Saturday start would push back Rich Harden's scheduled start to his sixth day -- a schedule that produced good results for Harden with Oakland earlier this year.

In fact, with the A's this season, Harden started seven times on five days rest. In those seven starts, he went 4-0, 1.43, with 60 strikeouts in 44 innings. Which is nice.

As for Thursday night's game, it was more "Fun with Carlos" as Marmol walked three men in just an inning-and-a-third on the way to his fourth save.

The save opportunities may end soon for Marmol, however, as the start of Wood's DL stint was backdated to July 14th, which means he will be eligible to return to the Cubs next Tuesday, when the team will play the second of four games against the Brewers.

Cubs Win, Cuban Contends, and I Dare You To Spell "Samardzija" on Your Own

2008-07-23T23:56:00.004-05:00

— Call me a cockeyed optimist, but I found no fewer than eight positives in the concluding game of the Cubs' mostly miserable 2-4 road trip.

— According to the Sun-Times, Tribune Company has pared the field of potential purchasers of the team and the ballpark down to five, with all of those parties having bid at least $1 billion. Mark Cuban is among the five; John Canning, Milwaukee businessman and friend of Bud Selig, is apparently not.

— In light of Kerry Wood's ongoing blister problem, the S-T's Gordon Wittenmyer became the first reporter covering the team to utter those two words, one of which is virtually impossible to spell correctly: Jeff Samardzija.

The blister on [Wood's] right index finger hasn't come close to healing the way the club expected by now, and Wood could be facing another trip to the disabled list after seeing a specialist in Chicago [Thursday]. That might open the way for hard-throwing prospect Jeff Samardzija to make his major-league debut.

Since his recent promotion from Double-A ball, Samardzija has started six games for the I-Cubs, going 4-1, 3.13, fanning 40 and walking 16 in 37 1/3 innings. This past Monday, the former Notre Dame football star held Nashville to 2 hits and 1 run over 6 innings while striking out 9.

— I'll be out of town next week, when manager Ryne Sandberg leads his Class-A Midwest League Peoria Cubs into battle against the Kane County Cougars in the special "Road to Wrigley" game right there at Clark & Addison, but it sounds like it's going to be a lot of fun. The Cubs have decided to open the upper deck for the contest, with some of the seats going for as little as $5. All in all, a brilliant promotional idea. Hard to believe the Cubs could have come up with such a thing in the absence of former marketing genius-in-residence John McDonough, now President of the Blackhawks, speaking of which...

— Having lived my entire life in the Chicago area, I am at peace with the idea that the weather here will be completely inhospitable to human life from November 1st through April 30th every year, without exception. However, this year on December 31st, I'm really, really, really going to pray that the high temperature on New Year's Day, 2009 hits about 85 degrees.

In the Wake of the Desert Disaster

2008-07-23T12:23:00.006-05:00

Tuesday night's Cub loss left me speechless, i.e., postless. If it wasn't a certain low point in the season thus far, it is at least in the running.

In trying to find some historical context for the Cubs' play through much of the first half—most of it related to the team's stunning record at Wrigley Field—I have continued to stumble across references to 1969 and 1977. In both years, the Cubs headed into the All-Star break with a hold on first place.

I won't go into 1969, but as for '77, it was unique because both the Cubs and the White Sox sat atop their respective divisons at the break and naturally, that gave rise to all sorts of 'what if?' talk about an all-Chicago World Series.

That season, the Cubs finished the first half with a 54-35 record, 2.5 games better than the second-place Phillies in the NL East. (This year's Cubs were 57-38 at the break, 4.5 games better than the second-place Cardinals in the Central.)

The '77 team split its first 12 games in the second half, holding onto sole possession of first place through August 3rd. The Cubs then split a 4-game series at home against an awful San Diego Padres team while Philadelphia, with Mike Schmidt, Greg Luzinski, and Steve Carlton all in fine form, ran up a winning streak that would eventually reach 13 games, including a 4-game sweep of the Cubs at Wrigley.

By the time the Phillies finally lost, the Cubs had fallen 5.5 games in arrears and the season was over. At the finish line, the Phillies were division champions with a 101-61 mark, while the Cubs finished 20 games back at 81-81, damn respectable by Cub standards but deeply disappointing considering how things had looked in July.

(Saving grace—though the White Sox held up much better than the Cubs and finished the campaign 90-72, they still finished third, 12 games behind the AL West champion Royals.)

I don't mention any of this because I have given up hope or expect the Cubs to finish 20 games out, but given how poorly they have started the second half, how dreadfully they performed in Phoenix Tuesday night, and how well the Brewers are playing (with the overachieving Cardinals right behind them), it certainly does cross a Cub fan's mind that we could be seeing the beginning of the end of all those World Series fantasies we have shared so far in 2008.

Harden Meets Schiraldi, Harkey, and Don Wengert: Arcane Cubs List of the Week

2008-07-21T23:56:00.007-05:00

With Arizona's 2-0 victory over the Cubs Monday night, Randy Johnson ran his career record against the Cubs to 13-0. Only one other pitcher in National League history has won at least 10 games against the Cubs without suffering a loss: Sal Maglie of the Giants, who went 10-0 between 1954 and '58.

At least Rich Harden, who pitching brilliantly for 7 innings—1 ER, 1 hit, 2 BB, 10 K—has some company in being the Cubs' losing pitcher in a game won by Randy Johnson. As you'll see, it's not good company in many cases, but it's company nonetheless.

Here they are...the 12 Cubs pitchers who preceded Harden in dropping a game to the Big Unit:

Calvin Schiraldi (9/20/88; Expos 9, Cubs 1)
Mike Harkey (9/26/88; Expos 3, Cubs 2)
Don Wengert (8/22/98; Astros 8, Cubs 3)
Terry Mulholland (6/9/99; Diamondbacks 8, Cubs 7)
Jon Lieber (8/16/99; Diamondbacks 10, Cubs 3)
Andrew Lorraine (4/30/00; Diamondbacks 6, Cubs 0)
Steve Rain (8/20/00; Diamondbacks 5, Cubs 4)
Jon Lieber (5/18/01; Diamondbacks 4, Cubs 0)
Jason Bere (6/14/01; Diamondbacks 3, Cubs 2)
Jason Bere (8/18/01; Diamondbacks 5, Cubs 3)
Carlos Zambrano (8/25/02; Diamondbacks 7, Cubs 0)
Carlos Zambrano (4/26/04; Diamondbacks 9, Cubs 0)

With Monday's 7-inning, no-run outing, Johnson sliced his career ERA against the Cubs to 1.93 over 102 2/3 IP. In that time, he has allowed but 66 hits, while fanning 142 and walking just 33.

He can't retire soon enough for me.

Who's Afraid of a Big, Bad, Ol' 100 Mile-Per-Hour Fastball?

2008-07-18T12:20:00.004-05:00

Yesterday on ESPN Radio's Mike & Mike Show, one of the Mikes (Greenberg), recounted a conversation he had the night before at the annual White House t-ball game with former Cub Ryne Sandberg.

The subject was intimidating pitchers, and Sandberg confided that the only pitcher he was truly afraid to dig in against, a pitcher who actually caused Ryno to stand one step further from home plate than normal, was Nolan Ryan. Per Greenberg, Sandberg said when he stepped in against Ryan, his only thought was to reach out and drive the ball to right-center field. Pulling the ball was never in Sandberg's plans against Ryan.

Sandberg also said that if one was fortunate enough to hit the ball solidly and, say, end up with a double, Ryan would glare at the hitter as he ran the bases. Sandberg decided the best thing he could do was run out the hit, keep his mouth shut (God forbid there would be any fist-pumping), and most of all, avoid any eye contact with Ryan, lest he get one of those 100mph heaters in his ribs or under his chin in his next at-bat.

According to Baseball-Reference.com, Sandberg faced Ryan in 47 plate appearances between 1982 and 1988 when Ryan was with the Astros. Sandberg went 10-for-41 (.244) with a .340 OBP and .415 slugging percentage, with 2 HR, just 3 RBI, 11 K's and 6 BB's in those head-to-head matchups.

Time to Get Back to Work...Tomorrow

2008-07-18T00:01:00.002-05:00

The All-Star break extended through Thursday night here at "A Hundred Next Years." Something new will be up some time Friday.

In the meantime, I have a post up at The Cub Reporter regarding the 10 biggest Cubs hits so far this season, according to the exquisite numbers at FanGraphs.

It's All-Star Time, When A Young Man's Fancy Lightly Turns to Thoughts of Steve Swisher

2008-07-15T00:36:00.004-05:00

As a Cubs fan, I have several vivid memories of watching the All-Star Game, all of them back when I was much younger, pre-free agency and pre-interleague play, and the game seemed so much more interesting.

One of those moments occurred in 1970, when Pete Rose famously crushed Ray Fosse at home plate to score the winning run in the Nationals' 5-4, 12-inning victory over the Americans; a play only made possible by the line single to centerfield off the bat of the Cubs' Jim Hickman.

Another memory is from 1975, when I saw Bill Madlock rap a two-run, ninth-inning single against White Sox reliever Rich Gossage, scoring the lead runs in an eventual 6-3 NL win and securing co-MVP honors in the game for Madlock.

My third favorite All-Star Game memory comes from 1976, when Steve Swisher, who was a truly terrible catcher for the Cubs between 1974 and 1977, was selected as the lone Cub representative on the NL squad, though he never appeared in the game.

I don't know why this last recollection is so vivid—maybe it is the sheer, hysterical incongruity of Swisher stepping out for the pre-game introduction alongside the likes of Johnny Bench, Mike Schmidt, Fred Lynn, Rod Carew, Rollie Fingers, and Catfish Hunter.

I'll bet Steve Swisher thinks of 1976 every year at All-Star time, and probably not because of the incongruity.

It's Late, Harden Goes Tomorrow, and Brother, am I Wide Awake!

2008-07-11T23:14:00.005-05:00

Naturally I am so worked up over Rich Harden's Cub debut Saturday afternoon, I have no choice but to stay up all night tonight in anticipation. As a result, I am following tonight's late games from the West Coast as they happen, including Sean Gallagher's first start for the Athletics, who are opening a series against the AL West-leading Angels in Oakland.

Gallagher pitched the first seven innings of the game, which the A's currently lead, 9-2. The 22-year-old righty allowed just two hits, three walks, and two earned runs before he was lifted. The seven-inning stint matches Gallagher's longest this year for the Cubs, back in late May when Gallagher and his mates beat the Dodgers, 3-1.

During tonight's late edition of Baseball Tonight on ESPN, Tim Kurkjian reiterated what has been written elsewhere, that Gallagher was the key player from the A's perspective in the Harden trade. For at least a moment this evening, Oakland fans also had to be feeling good about having acquired Matt Murton—the redhead smacked a bases loaded single to plate two runs in the middle of a 6-run Oakland rally in the third inning. That rally essentially locked up the game for the home team.

That was Murton's only hit in the game thus far. He is 1-for-5 with a strikeout.

In any case, I'm sure Rich Harden is happy to see his former team burying their chief AL West rivals.

Cubs Get Squashed; White Sox Offer Promotional Redundancy

2008-07-10T21:46:00.005-05:00

Tonight I learned that Saturday, July 19th will be "Mullet Night" at U.S. Cellular Field.

Yes, the White Sox are making a point of honoring their fans who wear mullets.

I believe this is like the Chicago Symphony acknowledging their patrons who love classical music.

(Just something you think about when you'd rather not confront the fact that the National League's 12th-highest scoring team clubbed seven home runs Thursday afternoon at Wrigley Field and flattened the home team, 12-7.)

On Wednesday, There Was a Lot to Hear about Harden

2008-07-09T22:52:00.004-05:00

Wednesday afternoon on WSCR, Cubs assistant General Manager Randy Bush contradicted something that had been said about new Cub Rich Harden by the Chicago Tribune's Dave van Dyck Wednesday morning...on the very same WSCR.

Van Dyck quoted a scout he spoke to right after Tuesday's trade who said that Harden has reduced his repertoire this season to just two pitches—fastball and change-up—to protect the balky shoulder that has been the culprit behind much of Harden's Disabled List time.

Bush, who heartily endorsed the proposed acquisition of Harden to his boss, Jim Hendry, and personally scouted the hurler this past Sunday when the Athletics played the White Sox in Chicago, said the no-breaking ball assertions about Harden are untrue; that he personally saw him snap off some nasty sliders at U.S. Cellular Field over the weekend.

Apparently we'll see for ourselves on Friday or Saturday, when Harden makes his National League debut against the Giants, whom Harden dominated (6 IP, 1 hit, 9 K, 2 BB and no runs allowed) in an interleague game just four weeks ago.

According to Fangraphs, whose pitch-type data goes back to 2005, Harden has changed his pitching mix quite a bit in the last few seasons. While the righthander is still throwing almost the exact same proportion of fastballs (about 62% of his total pitches), Harden has reduced the number of sliders significantly, from 10.7% to just 5.5%. He has also cut down drastically on the number of split-finger pitches he throws, from 18% to a paltry 7%.

And while, if we are to believe Randy Bush, Harden is not a strict fastball/change-up thrower, he is throwing many more change-ups than he was back in '05: from 9% to around 25%.

A couple more notes on Harden. First, this one from Will Carroll, writing Wednesday for Baseball Prospectus:

The Cubs, clearly in a win-now mode, got an upgrade with some downside. The Cubs were willing to take on that risk after a sign-off from their own doctors and the word of (Doctor) Lewis Yocum...While Harden is always going to be an injury waiting to happen, I think that the risk, and the team's relative assessments of that risk, are going to be the deciding factor in the perception of who "won" this deal.

Finally, a perspective on Harden from none other than the White Sox' A.J. Pierzynski, who fanned twice in three at-bats against him on Sunday and is quoted here from an article in the Oakland Tribune that ran during Spring Training of last season:

Pierzynski compared Harden's stuff to that of Atlanta's John Smoltz. Both combine velocity with a repertoire of other pitches they can call on.
"He can make the ball go down. He has a slider which breaks. His fastball kind of cuts a little bit. Sometimes he can sink it, too," Pierzynski said of Harden. "He can move it up and down. Most guys have one thing or the other, but it's the special guys who have three or four of those."

Cubs Land an Elite Young Pitcher; Dave from Bloomingdale is Furious

2008-07-08T23:05:00.008-05:00

Shortly after the announcement of the Cubs' acquisition of Rich Harden and Chad Gaudin from the Athletics on Tuesday afternoon, WSCR's Boers & Bernstein took a call from Dave in Bloomingdale, who decried the Cubs having to give up both Matt Murton—1 HR in 231 AB's this season, with Iowa and the Cubs combined—and Eric Patterson, who has hit the hell out of the ball in the minors, but simply fields like hell.

That conveys all one needs to know about the average sports I.Q. of the average sportstalk listener.

Here is what some knowledgable observers outside of Chicago had to say about the deal, which brings the gifted but oft-injured Harden and Gaudin to 1060 West Addison and sends Murton, Patterson, Sean Gallagher, and minor league catcher Josh Donaldson to Oakland:

Yes, pity the A's fan who's seen so many aces disappear up so many other teams' sleeves. But A's fans should embrace Tuesday's trade...

Harden was house money. His right arm, so worrisome over the years, had transformed back into a wanted commodity, thanks to a 5-1 first-half record. Despite back-to-back sub-par outings, he was the A's best trade bait.

The Cubs wanted him, and they can have him. They need him more than the A's do. And they'll need to get skipper Lou Piniella a reliable pitch-count clicker to track Harden.

— Cam Inman, Contra Costa Times

"The Cubs were pretty aggressive," (Oakland GM Billy) Beane said. Cubs GM "Jim Hendry and I talk quite a bit anyway. We consistently had conversations over the past month; we came to an agreement this morning. They were looking for Rich..."

From the A's point of view, Gallagher was key to the deal. Beane said the A's have been following Gallagher's progress since he joined the pro ranks. He is scheduled to start for the A's on Friday.

"We've had numerous injuries," Beane said. "Guys have done a good job battling through it, but as far as what we're doing, this is a step forward for what we're doing for the next four or five years."

— Susan Slusser, San Francisco Chronicle

My first reaction is that Cubs fans ought to be insanely happy about this. They're not likely going to miss any of those players in their pennant drive much, while Harden and Gaudin will both make an immediate impact, especially if they turn Gaudin back into a starter.

And my second reaction is that if Cubs fans should be happy, then A's fans should be disappointed. I like Gallagher, but Murton seems redundant on the A's roster, Patterson seems like the type of risky player who, like his brother Cory, will likely not pan out unless he can miraculously find some plate discipline, and Donaldson--never heard of him.

—Ken Arneson, Catfish Stew

Cubs general manager Jim Hendry checked in from time to time throughout June with Oakland general manager Billy Beane about the availability of Rich Harden...Yes, Harden was available, but only at the right price, and that price would include right-handed pitcher Sean Gallagher. Hendry indicated, repeatedly, that Gallagher wasn't available.

On Sunday evening -- the same night when word broke that the Brewers had worked out a deal for CC Sabathia -- Hendry indicated to Beane...that he would make Gallagher available in a Harden deal, but it would create a problem: If Gallagher was traded, the Cubs wouldn't have the kind of depth they needed to deal with an injury.

"Let me call you back," Beane said.

Beane had an idea. He could fill Hendry's need for depth by adding veteran swingman Chad Gaudin in the trade. He phoned Hendry back on Monday night with the suggestion. "That could work," Hendry said, and the two general managers began piecing together other parts of the trade. Beane called Hendry with a detail of the trade very late on Monday night...

Some 15 hours later, the trade was finished. Oakland got Gallagher, a pitching prospect with a more stable medical history than Harden, and the Cubs got a high-risk, high-reward talent in Harden.

— Buster Olney, ESPN.com

Finally there was this summation from Buck Showalter on ESPN's Baseball Tonight:

"Harden's stuff is just wipeout filthy."

Suffering from Sabathia-Related Depression? Jayson Stark Will Make You Feel Better

2008-07-07T13:34:00.004-05:00

In the aftermath of the Brewers' acquisition of C.C. Sabathia, Jayson Stark devotes his "That's Debatable" column at ESPN.com to alternately arguing why the Cubs, Brewers, or Cardinals might be the best team in the NL Central.

In his argument on behalf of the Cubs, Starks writes:

The Cubs were the best team in the National League before this deal. And it won't be easy for [Sabathia], who only goes out there every fifth day, to change that. The Cubs are a deeper, more efficient and more consistent offensive team than Milwaukee, for one thing. They've scored nearly 70 more runs (475-406). They've outhit the Brewers by nearly 30 points (.283-.255) and have a much better on-base percentage (.359-.324). And the Cubs still have the better bullpen (3.65 ERA to Milwaukee's 4.07).

Starks concludes that the Cubs, who "undoubtedly have a trade or two in them themselves," should capture the NL Central, regardless of Milwaukee's new, 290-pound bundle of joy.