Showing posts with label Cubs statistics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Cubs statistics. Show all posts

A hallmark of this Cub season has been the team's prodigious scoring (656 runs scored through 121 games; nearly .5 run more per game than the second-ranking Mets), and a key component of that offense has been the team's ability to take walks and take pitches that leave them in "hitters' counts."

All of that said, The Hardball Times on Thursday linked to a great new baseball stats site called StatCorner created by Matthew Carruth and Graham MacAree. Among the numbers available there are the percentages of pitches seen which individual players swing at.

Here are the Swing Percentages for the 2008 Cubs. (Note: on average, MLB hitters swing at approximately 45% of the pitches thrown their way.)

  • Blanco, 49.9%
  • Cedeño, 52.2%
  • DeRosa, 42%
  • Edmonds, 43.6%
  • Fontenot, 41.6%
  • Fukudome, 40.7%
  • Johnson, 45.1%
  • Lee, 42.2%
  • Ramirez, 45.6%
  • Soriano, 52.5%
  • Soto, 41.9%
  • Theriot, 39.3%
  • Ward, 42%
As you can see, of the nine Cub regulars (that's including both Jim Edmonds and Reed Johnson), only Soriano, Ramirez, and Johnson swing at more than the average number of pitches, and Ramirez and Johnson do so just barely. Ryan Theriot and Kosuke Fukudome swing at markedly fewer pitches than average.

Interestingly, Ramirez's swing percentage is his lowest since joining the Cubs in '03, and Soriano's, while highest on the team, is significantly lower than last year's 57.9%. Not coincidentally, I think, Ramirez's current OBP (.385) would be far and away a career high, and Soriano's .344 would be his second-highest in ten Major League seasons.

The All-Star break extended through Thursday night here at "A Hundred Next Years." Something new will be up some time Friday.

In the meantime, I have a post up at The Cub Reporter regarding the 10 biggest Cubs hits so far this season, according to the exquisite numbers at FanGraphs.

Derrek Lee grounded into two double-plays in Friday's 10-3 loss to the White Sox, one in the first inning, the other, a real back-breaker, in the third inning with one out and the bases loaded against a struggling Jose Contreras.

Just half-way through the season, Lee has already set a career high in GIDP with 19, which is also good enough (or bad enough) to give him the GIDP lead in the NL.

Lee, as quoted in the Tribune:

"I have double-playitis this year. I don't know what's going on with the double play, but bases loaded, runner on third and [one] out, I tried to get it in the air. I just got over the top of it and rolled over."
The National League record for GIDP, which Lee is on pace to break, is 30, a mark co-held by two catchers, Ernie Lombardi of the Reds in 1938 and Brad Ausmus of the Astros in 2002. The MLB record is 36, set by Boston's Jim Rice in 1984.

Even if Lee doesn't shatter any records, but does wind up leading the NL in hitting into double plays, he'll be placing himself in some pretty respectable company, as evidenced by this Arcane Cubs List of the Week:

National League GIDP leaders since 1998:

1998 Jeff Cirillo, MILW 26
1999 Mike Piazza, NYM 27
2000 Moises Alou HOU 21
2001 Vladimir Guerrero MON 24
2002 Brad Ausmus HOU 30
2003 Jay Payton COL 27
2004 A.J. Pierzynski SF 27
2005 Sean Casey CIN 27
2006 Garrett Atkins COL & Adrian Gonzalez SD 24
2007 Albert Pujols STL & Carlos Lee HOU 27

Obviously those Houston boys are fond of hitting into the old twin killing. And a special shout out to Msrs. Pierzynski, Casey, and Gonzalez, who didn't let the fact that they're lefthanded hitters with a supposed advantage in getting down the line stand in the way of their leading the league in rapping into double plays.

Finally, this Cub-related GIDP note: the all-time Cubs team mark is 27, amassed by the great Ron Santo in 1973. In 1961, Santo hit into 25 double plays, which is the second-highest single-season total in Cubs history, an honor he shares with current Cub Aramis Ramirez (2004) and Mark Grace (1993). Santo also shares the 7th, 8th, and 10th highest single-season GIDP numbers in Cubs history.

In other words, if Derrek Lee wants to commiserate with anybody about hitting into double-plays, he would have a hard time finding more well-versed company than Mr. Santo.

The Cubs meet the Orioles shortly in the finale of their three-game series and of the six-game homestand. With a victory, the Cubs will take two-of-three from Baltimore and finish with a 5-1 mark on the homestand.

We're getting used to that sort of thing around here. The Cubs' home mark is currently a dazzling 33-9 (.786).

Here are the team's records in the six homestands preceding the current one:

March 31—April 6: 3-3
April 15—April 22: 7-1
April 29—May 1: 1-2
May 9—May 18: 8-2
May 26—June 1: 7-0
June 10—June 12: 3-0

With a win today, the Cubs' record at home since May 9 will stand at 23-3.

Jim Edmonds Update

Updating a post from a couple weeks ago...

Jim Edmonds went 26 at-bats before collecting his first RBI as a member of the Cubs, when he homered in the sixth inning of Friday's spectacular comeback against the Rockies, one of his three hits and three RBI that day.

As I write this in the sixth inning of the Cubs' game at San Diego, Edmonds is 2-for-4 tonight, including a pair of doubles and a long fly out to left field, and frankly, finally, seems to be finding some level of competence at the plate. Overall, Edmonds, who has widened his stance in the last few days according to Bob Brenly on tonight's telecast, has now gone 10-for-35 (.286) as a Cub, with the one home run and 7 RBI.

Reed Johnson, who has basically platooned with Edmonds since the veteran joined the Cubs, is hitting .261/.345/.359 with an OPS+ of just 83.

In total, Cub centerfielders this season (Johnson, Edmonds, Felix Pie, and Kosuke Fukudome, in his 4 AB's while playing CF) are hitting .263/.342/.366 with an OPS of just 708, which makes CF far and away the least productive position offensively on the team. The shortstops, Ryan Theriot and Ronny Cedeño, are the next closest, with an OPS of 783.

As for Pie, he continues to struggle mightily at Iowa, hitting just .174 (12-for-69) with an OBP of .240.

In other words, it's a good thing Edmonds seems to be heating up.

Mark DeRosa came into Friday's game against the Rockies hitting .308 with a batting line (OBP/SLG/OPS) of 400/453/853 and an OPS+ of 121. If he were to finish the season with those numbers, he would establish career highs for batting average, on-base percentage, and OPS, and the Cubs would seem to be getting good value for their $4.75MM.

Still, according to another metric, DeRosa has been the least effective offensive player on the '08 Cubs. Fangraphs, a site I refer to and link to often, measured DeRosa's cumulative Win Probability Added before today at -.72. (By comparison, Aramis Ramirez led the team at +2.42 with Kosuke Fukudome second at +1.42.)

Today's stunning 10-9 Cub win over Colorado at Wrigley Field will take its place in the Big Book of Unbelievable Cub Comebacks; it also did wonders for DeRosa's WPA number. DeRo's two-run, seventh-inning homer off of woebegone Rox reliever Manny Corpas which put the Cubs in front to stay, 10-9, increased the Cubs' probability of winning from 40.9% to 76.7% and boosted DeRosa's personal WPA by a whopping .358. It was far and away his most impactful hit of the season.

And many, many Cub fans in every corner of the baseball-loving world, most of whom haven't heard of Win Probability Added, will never forget it.

Cubs Happy Thoughts

Aside from owning MLB's best record in light of yet another comeback win Thursday night, the Cubs also own baseball's best run differential. At +88, they lead the pack, by a mile. A country mile. A mile and two-thirds! (The Phillies are second at +56; the White Sox pace the AL at +39).

Also, while baseball's Old Common Wisdom holds that a team's record in close games is very telling—it supposedly reflects a club's ability to execute the fundamentals, proves its adroitness at "small ball," demonstrates the manager's strategic skills, blah, blah, blah—others have argued convincingly that it's in the not-so-close games that a team's superiority (or inferiority) is able to truly manifest itself.

In games this season decided by 3 or more runs, the Cardinals are 15-11. The Astros are 14-11.

The Cubs are 20-5.

Jim Edmonds wasn't the reason the Cubs lost two of three in Houston, but neither did he do anything to punch up his team's relatively meager offense the last two nights.

On Wednesday, with the Cubs already leading 3-0 in the opening inning, Edmonds failed to bring in Geovany Soto from second base with two outs. Then, in the seventh inning, one out after rookie Micah Hoffpauir had opened the frame with a double, Edmonds lifted a harmless fly ball to right field.

In 15 AB over four games, Edmonds has produced two singles and no RBI. In honor of the newest Cub's non-accomplishment in the runs driven in category, here is a list of the 10 Cub non-pitchers since 1960 who accumulated the most at-bats in a season without earning even a single RBI.

  1. Matt Alexander ('74), 54 AB
  2. Cleo James ('73), 45 AB
  3. Tom Lundstedt ('74), 32 AB
  4. Rick Wrona ('90), 29 AB
  5. Gene Oliver ('69), 27 AB
  6. Alex Grammas ('63), 27 AB
  7. Bo Porter ('99), 26 AB
  8. Augie Ojeda ('03), 25 AB
  9. Jerry Tabb ('76), 24 AB
  10. Enrique Wilson ('05), 22 AB
Edmonds currently ranks 21st on this list. I rate him a strong possibility to crack the Top 10, maybe even the Top 5. But long before he has a chance to rob Cleo James's place in Cub history, I think Edmonds will have been asked to clear out his locker at Wrigley Field.




Earlier today at The Cub Reporter, I pointed to this piece by Dayn Perry of FoxSports.com, who sees the possibility of clouds forming on the currently sunny Cub horizon. (He wonders about the true quality of the Cub pitching staff and whether or not Carlos Marmol will be pitched to death before he and his teammates have a chance to be fitted for World Series rings.)

Jay Jaffe, writing for the New York Sun, is more optimistic in his forecast of the rest of the Cubs season, citing weaknesses in the other NL Central teams as just one reason to feel good about the Cubs' chances of doing grand things in 2008.

At the end of each week since the season began, I've tracked the Cubs hits that were highest in Win Probability Added (WPA) for that particular week. (Note: this exercise is only possible because of the brilliant FanGraphs site.)

Forty-six games into the season, here are the five Cub hitters with the highest cumulative WPA for 2008:

  1. Ramirez, 1.35
  2. Fukudome, 1.27
  3. Soto, .89
  4. Soriano, .71
  5. Lee, .59
The five lowest? Well, that would be:
  1. Pie, -.44
  2. Blance, -.19
  3. Edmonds, -.18
  4. DeRosa, -.13
  5. Fontenot, -.12
At least as measured by WPA, Pie earned that ticket to Des Moines. And what can be made of Edmonds? Monday's miraculous catch aside, he's hasn't done much in his first three games as a Cub—two singles in 12 AB, plus a walk. Edmonds also hit into a key double-play in the seventh inning of Tuesday night's loss, as the Cubs were trying to overcome a 4-2 deficit. That was a -.118 event in WPA terms, all by itself.

In case you're wondering how the Cub leaders (and laggards) compare to the rest of the National League, here are the NL's current WPA pacesetters:
  1. Berkman (HOU), 4.09
  2. Burrell (PHI), 3.23
  3. Pujols (STL), 2.01
  4. N. Johnson (WASH), 1.52
  5. Holliday (COL), 1.49
And here is the bottom of the barrel:
  1. Bard (SD), -1.61
  2. Francoeur (ATL), -1.54
  3. Kouzmanoff (SD), -1.48
  4. Milledge (WASH), -1.18
  5. A. Jones (LA), -1.17
By the way, Padres shortstop Khalil Greene is just behind (ahead of?) the Dodgers' Jones at -1.16, which means San Diego currently has three of the six lowest-rated players in the NL. With the kind of season that team is having, I imagine there are a whole bunch of categories in which the Padres are down on the lowest rung.