Thanks to the genius that is Fangraphs, here's an analysis of Thursday's bottom of the 9th inning. The event is followed by the statistical likelihood that the Cubs would win the game given the score, location of men on base and the number of outs at that point, as determined by historical analysis of similar situations in many thousands of Major League games.

Be prepared to get sick to your stomach all over again:

Ryan Dempster enters game (5-1 Cubs). 98%
David Newhan singles. 95.7%
Ramon Castro flies out to right. 98%
Carlos Gomez singles; Newhan advances to 3rd. 95%
Carlos Gomez advances to 2nd on defensive indifference. 93.7%
Carlos Beltran walks to load bases. 88.9%
Endy Chavez walks; Newhan scores (5-2 Cubs). 79.2%
Ruben Gotay singles; Gomez scores (5-3 Cubs). 66.3%
Scott Eyre enters game. David Wright singles; Beltran scores (5-4 Cubs). 45.7%
Carlos Delgado singles; Chavez, Gotay score (6-5 Mets). 0%

(AP Photo/Kathy Willens from


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