Update: Shows what I know.

The National League Manager of the Year will be announced today at noon with Our Man Lou among the obvious frontrunners. Piniella won AL MOY honors twice while in Seattle ('95 and '01).

My money, however, is on Charlie Manuel. The Phillies manager finished second in last year's balloting to Bob Melvin of Arizona, and though balloting is completed before the post-season begins and thus, the Phils' World Series success won't work in Manuel's favor, I see him as more of a sentimental favorite than the crusty Piniella.

What's more, though expectations were high in Philadelphia this season, the Cubs seemed to be a consensus choice as best team in the NL at the beginning of the campaign, which could have left voters to conclude that Piniella simply won a division crown with a team that absolutely should have won a division crown, nothing more, nothing less.

Writing at mlb. com, Jim Maloney mentions Joe Torre as a third strong contender, but it's hard for me to see the baseball writers attributing the Dodgers' success to anyone other than that home run-hitting leftfielder with the long hair and even longer baseball pants.

6
Number of consecutive games the Cubs have won against the White Sox

33
Total number of games Cubs have won in the all-time series with the Sox (63 games played)

.889
Lou Piniella's winning percentage as Cub manager in games against the White Sox (Piniella's record is 8-1)

4
Number of home runs Aramis Ramirez hit in this past weekend's series

4
Number of home runs Aramis Ramirez hit in the 28 games leading up to this past weekend's series

82.6
Percentage likelihood that the Cubs will win the NL Central, according to Baseball Prospectus's "Playoff Odds Report"

11.2
Percentage likelihood that the Cubs will not win the division, but will instead capture the Wild Card, according to Baseball Prospectus's "Playoff Odds Report"

93.8
Percentage likelihood that the Cubs will reach the post-season, according to Baseball Prospectus's "Playoff Odds Report"

3
Cubs' ranking in the latest Hardball Times' "Dartboard Ranking" (Red Sox and Tampa Bay are #1 and #2; the White Sox are just behind the Cubs at #4)

2
Cubs' ranking among all Major League teams in the latest Sporting News "Power Poll" (Angels are #1)

1
Number of people who will be in attendance at Tuesday night's Orioles/Cubs game and still focusing on the Brian Roberts-to-Cubs trade that never happened this spring (I'm thinking Brian Roberts will take one look at those 41,000 seats occupied by delirious Cub fans and he'll definitely be focusing on it)

(Illustration courtesy of AHNY reader DJ, of Cubbie Curmudgeon fame

— Gary Shelton, writing in the St. Petersburg Times, explains that while Lou Piniella was, is, and will presumably continue to be a much beloved figured in the Tampa/St. Pete area, current Rays manager Joe Maddon is "a better fit for the Rays" because of "the patience the past three years have required."

Following Piniella's departure after the '05 season, when the Rays finished 67-95, Tampa Bay slipped to 61-101 in Maddon's first season running the club. Last year, they improved by five games to 66-96. Currently, buoyed by young super-talents like B.J. Upton, Scott Kazmir, and rookie Evan Longoria, Maddon's team is 40-29 (.580), which means they could go 27-66 (.290) the rest of the way and still better last year's mark.

— Tampa Bay Rays trivia question of the post (also from the St. Pete Times): Who are the five active Tampa players left over from the Piniella regime?

Tampa Bay Rays Trivia Question Answer of the Post: Carl Crawford, Jonny Gomes, Scott Kazmir, Trever Miller and B.J. Upton.

— A non-Rays NL Central-related note: Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus reports that the Cardinals' rehabbing starter, Chris Carpenter, is experiencing ulnar neuritis (swelling of a nerve in his pitching arm) that will either set back his return to St. Louis by a month, to August, if the prescription is rest, or until Spring Training 2009, if more surgery is required. Somebody needs to tell the Cardinals, who just took two-of-three from the Phillies without Albert Pujols in the lineup and remain but 3 1/2 games in back of the Cubs, that they're not supposed to be playing .592 ball with all of their injuries.

— It was widely reported that the Cubs were less than enthusiastic about having to give up a day off before beginning the Tampa series Tuesday night so they could fly to Albany, then take a long bus ride to Cooperstown to play in the last-ever Hall of Fame Game Monday afternoon against the Padres. I wonder if the team was less surly or more surly when the game was rained out and the Cubs' involvement in the day was limited to riding in "vintage trolleys" during a parade down Cooperstown's Main Street.

With Wednesday's one-sided loss at Cincinnati, the Cubs have dropped 9 of 13 games and have now failed to win any one of their last five series.

The dark time began two weeks ago, during the second of two games in Colorado. In the last of the eighth inning, an error by Ryan Theriot opened the door to a two-run Rockies rally, a 4-2 Cub defeat, and a split of the teams' two-game set. Since then, the Cubs have dropped two of three each to the Nationals, Brewers, Cardinals, and Reds.

As for today's mess, Jon Lieber became only the second Cub pitcher ever to serve up four home run balls in one inning. (Phil Norton was the other, back in 2000.) That's bad enough, but the fact that two of the longballs were hit by former Cubs Paul Bako and Jerry Hairston, Jr.—Bako's was a 400-foot-plus shot—really underscores how weak Lieber's performance was.

Lou Piniella was non-commital after the game regarding Lieber's possible future in the starting rotation.

"We don't need to make a decision right now. We'll think about it and see what we can do."

With Scott Eyre coming off the DL this weekend, my guess is that Sean Marshall will get the ball the next time the fifth spot in the rotation rolls around.

And speaking of fifth starters, the Cubs' third-starter-turned-fifth-starter-turned-Iowa-Cubs-starter, Rich Hill, had his first minor league outing Tuesday night. As Mike Wellman reports at The Cub Reporter, it wasn't great.

Lou Piniella pulled Rich Hill from the first inning of tonight's game at St. Louis before he had given up a hit, but after he had walked four Cardinal hitters and forced in the first run of the evening. Coupled with Jon Lieber's mostly successful relief work this year (three scoreless innings of relief tonight at this writing, lowering Lieber's ERA to 1.93), Kerry Wood's third blown save of the season on Thursday, and Piniella's blow-up at a question asked by Jesse Rogers of WSCR in the post-game press conference, I'm wondering which of the following will occur first:

• Jon Lieber takes Rich Hill's turn in the starting rotation
• Carlos Marmol is given a save opportunity ahead of Kerry Wood
• Piniella goes truly berserk at a reporter

My guess is they will happen in the order I've listed them, but I think they'll all happen in the near future.

Cub players, as quoted by Paul Sullivan in the Tribune, wish to absolve Dusty Baker of:

1. Overusing, and thus causing the arm problems suffered by, Kerry Wood and Mark Prior
2. Facilitating the Kent Mercker/Steve Stone kerfuffle
3. Responsibility for the Cubs' collapse in 2004
4. Enabling Carlos Zambrano's temper tantrums and generally juvenile behavior
5. Preventing Ryan Theriot's development by playing him behind Neifi Perez
6. Not being Lou Piniella

That's a lot to not be reponsible for. Good thing we got that cleared up.

The Hardball Times flagged this fascinating story by Alan Schwarz in Tuesday's New York Times, a description of the work of Swarthmore College mathematician and avid Yankees fan Steve Wang.

Employing an analytical method called Chernoff faces, in which data are represented by varying heights, widths, and angles in images of human faces, Wang reflects the strategic tendencies of all 30 Major League managers from the 2007 season.

If I understand the explanation of Wang's analysis, the Piniella Chernoff face suggests Lou's relatively frequent use of pinch runners (the upward swoosh of the hair), the disinclination to use the sacrifice bunt (the slit nose and downward-turned mouth), and his tendency to switch starting lineups (the oval face).

Speaking of the lineup-switching, Old Oval Face announced after today's 8-2 loss to the Brewers that he will be re-installing Alfonso Soriano in the leadoff spot. Soriano has contributed to the Cubs 0-2 start by going hitless in nine at-bats, including three strikeouts, out of the second spot. Ryan Theriot, with whom Soriano will be swapping batting order positions, went 2-for-4 Wednesday after an 0-for-5 in Monday's opener.

It's not a decision on who will make up the five-man starting rotation. (After promising earlier in the week to unveil the rotation today, Lou Piniella said the announcement will now come Monday.)

It's not the official anointing of Kerry Wood as Cubs closer. (Again, stay tuned until Monday.)

It's not an answer to the question of who besides Felix Pie is capable of player center field. (Piniella says he doesn't currently have an answer; is he waiting for Jim Hendry to close a deal over the weekend?)

And the news is not that Piniella has settled confidently on a batting order. (He plans to do more experimenting, starting with Saturday's game against the White Sox, in which Kosuke Fukudome will get a chance to hit second, with Theriot leading off and Soriano, Ramirez, and Lee hitting 3-4-5.)

The big news is that apparently, Fukudome's nickname is "Fooky."

With Lou Piniella planning to announce his five-man starting rotation by the end of this week, the three contenders for the two open slots have gone out of their way to make the boss's choice difficult.

On Tuesday, Jason Marquis allowed the Royals one run over five innings to lower his Cactus League ERA to 1.93 (in 14 innings pitched).

On Wednesday afternoon, Ryan Dempster bounced back from a nasty outing over the weekend to fan seven Oakland A's while allowing one hit in 5 1/3 shutout innings.

Finally, on Wednesday night in a split squad game, Jon Lieber gave up just one earned run in five innings against the Giants, lowering his spring ERA to 1.80 (with just 2 walks in 15 IP).

We all know the candidates' shortcomings--Marquis is a terrible second-half pitcher, Lieber is battling age while trying to come back from a significant injury, Dempster is hoping to recast himself as a starting pitcher after years in the bullpen and before that, years as a poor starting pitcher--but at the very least, the three have presented themselves to their manager in the best possible light.

I like Lieber and question his ability to contribute out of the bullpen; I don't much like Marquis and question his ability to contribute out of the bullpen; and I suppose I could live with seeing Dempster as the fifth guy (whether they call him #3 or #5, who cares?). A trade (of Marquis to Boston?) would simplify everything, but it doesn't seem likely that will happen before Lou's self-imposed announcement deadline on Friday.

I'm glad the New York Times had room to write about Lou Piniella and the Cubs over the weekend, because today they've been really busy with other things.

Murray Chass's Sunday baseball column focused on Piniella's role as hitting guru for Asian imports Ichiro Suzuki and now, Kosuke Fukudome.

If you've had the chance to see Fukudome in any of the Cactus League games, you know that he invariably hits with his foot in the bucket, i.e., striding toward first base with his lead foot instead of stepping toward the pitcher, which we Americans were all taught to do from our first days in Little League.

Speaking of the Japanese players, Lou explains:

“They’re very disciplined hitters,” Piniella said. “They have great work habits, they have a unique style of hitting that isn’t taught in this country. They learned it through batting practice, their instruction and they use film. They have their own way of hitting.

“They stand a little closer to the plate than American hitters. When they stride, they don’t step toward the pitcher but more toward first base or third base, depending on whether they’re left-handed or right-handed. Their top stays stationary so they’re nice and square and their hands are steady when they hit.

“It’s a unique way of hitting, but it’s effective. Ichiro can hit the ball anywhere he wants. He can spray it to left, slap it to center, pull it to right.”

Comparing Ichiro and Fukudome directly, Piniella says...

"(Fukudome) looks more like a prototype American hitter than Ichiro when he first got here. They both hold their hands high, the bats up and down not flat. They stride away from the pitcher, they don’t stride to the pitcher, they stride between first base and second base so they clear their body.”

Piniella actually sees Fukudome as a cross between Ichiro and another countryman, Hideki Matsui of the Yankees. “(Fukudome is) not as fast as Ichiro and doesn’t have as much power as Matsui,” Piniella said.

In seven seasons with the Mariners, Ichiro has compiled 162-game averages of .333 AVG with an OBP/SLG/OPS line of .379/.437/816, averaging 10 HR and 39 stolen bases per season.

Matsui has played five seasons with the Yanks, compiling 162-game averages of .295 AVG with a line of .371/.485/856, 25 HR and 3 SB.

That means a true "cross" between Ichiro and Matsui would put together a .314 average with a .375/.461/836 line; 18 HR and 21 stolen bases.

Last year, Cub rightfielders hit .293 with a .375/.419/794 line and 12 HR.

So if these numbers play out, the Cubs would see an improvement over last year's production from Floyd, Jones, Murton, et al; nothing earthshaking, but an improvement nonetheless. That says nothing, of course, about the huge upside Fukudome is expected to deliver in the field.

And if Lou can provide a little dash of that guru magic...who knows how big a season Fukudome could be in for.

Declaring that "this is not a year that we’ll tinker much" with the lineup, Lou Piniella let it be known on Friday that he's considering hitting Fukudome-Lee-Ramirez in the 3-4-5 positions.

Lou's logic is that letting Fukudome bat third, as he did for the Chunichi Dragons, will help with his adjustment to life and baseball in the U.S. As for A-Ram and D-Lee...

"I know Ramirez feels very comfortable in the five hole. I'm sure Derrek will do what's best for the team. The fourth spot won't be a problem for him."

Over the course of his career, Ramirez has hit fourth more than in any other lineup position (43% of his career plate appearances). Based on OPS numbers, however, he has actually been most productive in the third hole: hitting 3rd, 903 OPS; hitting 4th, 841; hitting 5th, 865; hitting 6th, 901.

Derrek Lee has actually spent more of his time in the 6-hole (36% of his career PA's) than anywhere else, but his sweet spot has been in the third position: hitting 3rd, 955 OPS; 4th, 807; 5th, 853; and 6th, 870.

I'm not surprised that we're reading Cubs Spring Training stories about how good Kerry Wood looks or how Alfonso Soriano is ready to bounce back from that nasty quadriceps injury or how Lou Piniella is feeling pretty doggone good about his ballclub.

But I'll be the first to admit that not until the last couple days did I ever expect to read, "Aramis Ramirez Shuns Cockfighting Questions."

(Okay, I'll come clean. I stole that headline from The Sporting News. Back in the early and middle '70s, when I used to read the magazine faithfully, the weekly report on each MLB team would end with a series of notes introduced by a cute, distinctive little subhead, e.g., "Twin-klings" for the Twins notes, "A's Acorns" for Oakland A's notes, "Bruin Briefs" for the Cubs, etc. So yes, I plagiarized the headline. Don't tell the Clinton campaign!)

– The Cubs have complemented Ryan Theriot and Ronny Cedeno by adding a third member to the Light-Hitting Middle Infielders Club.

– For all the talk of Kerry Wood as closer, Lou Piniella says he is not even the leading candidate for the job right now.

– On last night's WGN Sports Central show, David Kaplan was interviewing Ryan Dempster, the Cubs' resident practical joker. Kaplan told Dempster if he needed inspiration before planning his next prank, he should check out this comic triumph from the Land of Phillie.

– There may be a new, mean-spirited, bald-headed guy calling the shots at Tribune Company, but some things remain the same: the Cubbies just can't get enough of that courtroom action.

Carlos Zambrano wasn't dying for it, but Lou Piniella gave it to him anyway. That is, the assignment to start for the Cubs on Opening Day. Lou also announced his Opening Day batting order weeks ago; look for him to provide the final score sometime in the next week.)

This will mark the fourth consecutive year in which Zambrano has pitched on Opening Day:

Notice the choice in 2000–2002. I wonder whatever happened to him.

Today cubs.com presented a 1,280-word interview with Cubs GM Jim Hendry as he looks back on the '07 season and looks forward to the team's organizational meetings in Arizona at the end of the month.

I know how busy you must be, with leaves to rake, storm windows to repair before the cold weather hits, etc., etc., so I have chopped the article down to a pithy 98 words.

Here are they are:

• The playoff loss to Arizona will not directly dictate Hendry's off-season roster moves.
• Hendry is not sure whether the Cubs will be more focused on signing free agents or promoting from within the system this winter.
• Cub fans suggest a lot of dumb trades.
• Geo Soto has a good chance to be the Cubs' Opening Day catcher.
• The pending Tribune sale won't hinder Hendry's ability to spend money.
• Hendry thought Lou Piniella's coaching staff did a good job this season.
• The quality of the Cubs' minor league system proved itself in '07.
• The Cubs scouting department is among the game's best.

There it is: all you need to know about what's on Jim Hendry's mind.

Now you can get to work. Those leaves aren't going to rake themselves, ya know?

Lou Piniella said it.

Lou Piniella's agent said it.

Paul Sullivan wrote it.

Today, Carrie Muskat wrote it again:

Lou Piniella is not interested in replacing Joe Torre as manager of the New York Yankees.

The Yanks supposedly have Don Mattingly and former Cub Joe Girardi at the top of their candidates list. I don't care who they hire. I just hope they hire somebody. Soon. So we don't have to read any more denials of the possibility that Lou Piniella will be the guy.

Completely unrelated thought:

I have been watching the Red Sox-Indians game intermittently this evening and my considered opinion--and I mean this in the most positive way imaginable--is that Josh Beckett is a bad ass.

The Cubs could use one of those. Yes, the amped-up, generally crazy, sometimes brilliant guy is entertaining, but the classic, cold-blooded bad ass with the permanent snarl sure comes in handy when your season is on the line and you're playing in front of 45,000 people who hate you.

Like I said, the Cubs could use one of those.